Due to splintering ties with his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy, US President Donald Trump halted US military assistance to Ukraine on Monday.
The US has been Ukraine’s single biggest supplier of defence aid since Russia’s full-fledged invasion of the Eastern European country in February 2022, apart from serving as the diplomatic fulcrum around which a broad coalition of nations has backed Kyiv against Moscow.
However, the military assistance is halted in response to Zelenskyy’s increasingly public criticism from Trump and his senior officials, at a time when Ukraine has been requesting that the US step up before Trump’s demands for peace with Russia.
So what precisely has Trump stopped, why, and can Ukraine continue to fight Russia without additional US military support?
What happened?
Unnamed US officials who claimed the president wasn’t convinced that Zelenskyy was committed to peace cited as saying that Trump halted military aid to Kyiv after mounting tensions with him.
The pause was announced shortly after Trump claimed Zelenskyy did not want to end the war “as long as he has America’s backing.”
The pause will persist until Ukraine displays a commitment to peace negotiations with Russia, The Associated Press reported, quoting an unnamed White House official.
Why did US military assistance stop?
Zelenskyy had stated in a briefing in Kyiv on Sunday that the end of the Ukraine war was still “very, very far away” before Trump’s pause and the Truth Social post.
“This is the worst statement that could have been made by Zelenskyy, and America will not put up with it for much longer”! Trump responded to Truth Social.
On February 28, Zelenskyy and Trump, US Vice President JD Vance, and Marco Rubio, US Secretary of State, met at the White House’s Oval Office. The tone of their press interaction quickly turned hostile when Trump and Vance accused the Ukrainian leader of not being thankful enough for the military assistance sent by the US to Kyiv.
Trump’s approach to the Ukraine war has become more diplomatically open to Russian President Vladimir Putin after a month in office. Washington and Moscow officials met in Saudi Arabia last month to discuss peace negotiations with countries not invited to join them.
When Zelenskyy and his European allies voiced discontent about this, Trump accused the Ukrainian president of starting the war, triggering a tense exchange of words between himself and Zelenskyy.
Zelenskyy stated on Sunday, “I think our relationship (with the US) will continue because it’s more than an occasional relationship,” despite recent tensions with Trump.
Then Trump made the infamous announcement that the US would stop providing Ukraine with military aid.
How much military aid has the US promised Ukraine?
According to calculations made by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), the US government has appropriated about $86 billion in military aid from Congress and Department of Defense (DoD) budgets since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, which is when it first begins this war.
These funds were pledged through a number of sources, including Foreign Military Financing (FMF), which includes $46 billion through the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA), $ 33 billion through the USAI, and $ 33 billion through the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA).
The money allocated by the US is primarily funding that goes into the manufacture of weapons shipped to Ukraine. These include body armor, missile defense systems, helicopters, tanks, coastal defense systems, and other types of armor. Additionally, some of the money is intended to replenish the US’s already exhausted weapons and ammunition stockpiles that were sent to Ukraine to aid its Russian combat.
The CSIS analysis found that the majority of the money the US government has already allocated for the support of Ukraine’s military defense has not yet been distributed.
What does pause actually mean?
Potentially, tens of billions of dollars in military help.
The White House has not yet specified exactly what the pause will entail, but it could theoretically include a stop to all the money that has been allocated to support Ukraine and hasn’t yet arrived in Kyiv in the form of weapons or other military aid.
Trump has not yet approved any additional aid to Ukraine since taking office. So the aid packages that could be suspended are ones that were , approved by former President Joe Biden.
Only $20.2 billion of the $86 billion appropriated funds have actually been used for Ukraine, according to the CSIS analysis.
The US Defense Department has also disclosed how it will use the funds, with another $ 28.6 billion committed. And a bucket of $34.2bn has been obligated, which means the government has signed contracts to produce equipment. Before Zelenskyy and Trump can work out a deal, the US might decide to stop all of this from reaching Ukraine.
Since some of the pledged aid, which is worth about $2.7 billion, wasn’t used within the budgetary constraints set forth during the appropriation, has expired before it was used.
Planned deliveries for 2025 included munitions for a type of artillery weapons called howitzers, as well as air defence systems, Mark Cancian, a former US Marine Corps colonel and a senior adviser with CSIS, told Al Jazeera.
How much do US weapons depend on Ukraine?
Not as much as it once was.
Ukraine has scrambled during the war to ramp up its own defence production capabilities, the country’s Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal announced last year.
In an interview that was released on February 4, Zelenskyy told British journalist Piers Morgan that the US now supplies 30% of the weapons Ukraine currently produces. Without this crucial 30%, Zelenskyy told Morgan, “You can imagine what would happen to us.” Ukraine largely produces drones, electronic warfare systems and artillery, Zelenskyy told a news conference on February 19.
The remaining 30% of Ukraine’s weapons are obtained from other sources, including Europe.
The US’s arsenal, however, contains the most deadly and cutting-edge weapons among those that the US has given to Ukraine.
Can Ukraine continue the fight without the US?
Cancian claimed that without US military support, Ukrainian forces might only be able to survive for two to four months before Russia breaks through their lines.
“Ukraine’s acquisition of weapons, munitions, and supplies is reduced by about half due to stopping US aid deliveries. As it was, Ukraine was barely hanging on with the Russians hammering their front lines and making continuous though expensive gains”, said Cancian.
Ukrainian forces will gradually lose combat capability without US military assistance. I’d venture that the Ukrainians could endure two to four months without their lines sagging and the Russians severing their ranks.
Could Europe fill this gap?
“So far, European military assistance has roughly matched US military aid. Cancian said that a significant increase in Europe’s commitment to closing the gap in an extended pause in US aid would be required.
“That said, weapons do not materialise overnight. Any additional European commitments to Ukraine will take time to arrive; it will be challenging for Europe to do so right away.
Recent discussions between European leaders about how to offer Kyiv security guarantees. During a security summit in London on Sunday attended by Zelenskyy, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and a group of European leaders discussed that it was essential to continue the flow of weapons to Ukraine. Additionally, Starmer made an announcement about a $1.6 billion ($2 billion) agreement that allows Ukraine to purchase 5, 000 air defense missiles.
However, it’s not clear whether Ukraine’s European allies will be able to help them or whether they will close the gap left by Trump’s halt. Zelenskyy and European leaders have acknowledged that Washington’s support is critical in reaching the end of the war in Ukraine. After the summit on Sunday, Starmer said, “This effort needs strong US support to support peace in our continent and to succeed.”
Following Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine, the US and Europe frozen roughly $300 billion of Russian Central Bank assets. Now, calls from European governments such as Poland, Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia are growing for the transfer of these assets to Ukraine. Cancian said, “The Europeans could use that to buy additional weapons, but that would be a significant policy change.”
Despite this, French President Emmanuel Macron has resisted using the frozen Russian assets because it would violate the international investor protections and deter foreign investors like China and Saudi Arabia.
What are the reactions to Trump’s aid freeze?
Democrats are upset about Trump’s decision.
In a press release released on Monday, Pennsylvania representative Brendan Boyle described Trump’s decision as “reckless, indefensible, and a direct threat to our national security.”
“This aid was approved by Congress on a bipartisan basis – Republicans and Democrats alike recognized that standing with Ukraine is standing for democracy and against Putin’s aggression”, Boyle added.
Source: Aljazeera
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