Over the past nine days, the New York City Board of Elections reported that 734, 317 early votes had been cast, more than quadrupling the number for the mayoral elections to be held in 2021.
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Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani leads RealClearPolitics on a 45.8% scale, holding a 14.7-point lead over independent Andrew Cuomo at 31.1 percent and a 28.5-point lead over Republican Curtis Sliwa at 17.3 percent.
Liberal voters in New York were drawn to Mamdani’s proposals for universal, free childcare, free buses, and a rent freeze for residents who reside in one million rent-regulated apartments because he is a member of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA).
Every four years, there are mayoral elections in New York City, with a two-term maximum for any candidate. Following a number of controversy, most notably his federal criminal indictment on bribery and conspiracy charges, which was ultimately dismissed by a judge in April, Democrat Eric Adams, the current mayor, who has been in office since January 2022, withdrew his candidacy earlier this year.
In the largest city in the nation, progressive, establishment, and conservative forces are pitted against one another in this year’s contest, which is notable for its three-way dynamic.
How reliable are the polls?
According to a number of polls from RealClearPolitics, Mamdani is currently three to 25 points ahead of Cuomo.
Every poll has some degree of uncertainty. There are margins of error, but pollsters aim to capture a representative sample and reflect the electorate as a whole. As a result, actual support falls within a few points of the reported figures, with surveyors using different language on issues like how to treat undecided voters.
Different outcomes are aggregated to reduce bias.
What is the process of polling?
In the run-up to the primaries and general election, polling organizations like Emerson College, Marist College, and Quinnipiac University regularly conduct public opinion surveys.
Surveys ask voters about their candidate preferences, key issues that affect their vote, and approval ratings using random sampling, including contacting voters via phone, text, or online.
Marginal margins of error and sample sizes are included in poll results to aid in the interpretation of findings’ accuracy and fidelity.
How voting is conducted
The general election uses a first-past-the-post system, which is different from the primaries, which used ranked choice voting (RCV).
In New York City as of February, there were 5.1 million registered voters, of which 65% were Democrats and 1% were Republicans. One million people voted in the election on November 4th, but no party had registered them. Voter registration ended on October 25.
Just over 1.1 million voters cast ballots in the most recent mayoral election in New York City, or roughly 21% of registered voters.
Residents of New York must:
- Become a United States citizen
- Have lived in New York City for at least 30 days.
- You must be at least 18 years old (you can preregister at 16 or 17 but not until you turn 18)).
- Not be incarcerated for a felony conviction
- Not have a court determined that a person is mentally incapable.
- not be able to cast a ballot elsewhere
When do polls close and open?
On November 4 (02:00 GMT on November 5), polling locations will be open between 6 am (11:00 GMT) and 9 pm (02:00 GMT).
Polling stations in the city open between 8am and 10am and close between 4pm and 9pm, but times vary depending on where you are in the city.
On October 25, early voting began and ended on November 2.
Source: Aljazeera
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