Netanyahu, the prime minister of Israel, appears to have given in. He has been negotiating a ceasefire for more than a year, but mediators insist that will accomplish that.
The deal, which would include a gradual Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, the end of the devastating war Israel has engulfed in the Palestinian enclave, was approved by Netanyahu’s government on Friday.
The Israeli prime minister faces off against opposition within his own administration as the implementation is scheduled to begin on Sunday, which is when the accusations are most likely to start. That opposition is repeating his long-added contention that Hamas must be destroyed before the war can end.
Itamar Ben-Gvir, the far-right national security minister, proudly stated that he has used his authority to stop any captive release agreements over the past year and that the current deal is “terrible” and that he and his party will step down from power if it is implemented.
But that won’t be enough to overthrow the Netanyahu administration. Ben-Gvir needs the support of his religious Zionism rival, Bezalel Smotrich, the minister of finance and far-right. Only in its initial phase, which would result in the release of some of the Israeli prisoners, does Motrich appear willing to proceed with the deal. Religious Zionism has declared its members’ resignation from the government unless the conflict in Gaza, which has so far claimed the lives of more than 46,700 Palestinians, is ended.
The Trump factor
Despite the threats to his authority, Netanyahu appears to be moving ahead. The ceasefire’s initial start is scheduled for one day before Donald Trump’s inauguration, which will be on Monday.
Trump, a pro-Israel Republican who intends to appoint several politicians with close ties to the Israeli settler movement, was seen by the Israeli far right as their man, a president who would turn the other way as the movement pursues its goal of erecting illegal settlements in Gaza and imposing its own population.
Trump has stated that he wants the war to end before taking office, but that appears to be in the interim.
Netanyahu might find that to be unfavorable in first reading, but perceptions that the Trump administration may have forced him might be beneficial politically in the long run, giving him more room to maneuver in the future.
“This may be more transactional than many suppose”, Mairav Zonszein, an Israel expert with the International Crisis Group, said, suggesting that the hand of Israel’s longest serving leader might not be so easily forced.
By consenting now, Netanyahu may have given himself more freedom to act in the West Bank and to decide what kind of future is agreed for Gaza, she said, referring to Israeli-led far-right’s plans to annex the occupied Palestinian territory, which are against international law.
“Everybody knew that, at some point, the captives would have to be exchanged. That was the norm. For many people, that’s not even a security issue. Who will rule in Gaza is a security concern for many, she said, referring to the third phase of the ceasefire agreement. She then went on to say that Netanyahu could be more certain of US goodwill when dealing with Gaza in the future by agreeing to the ceasefire.
Political reality
Since he returned to power at the end of 2022, Netanyahu has a close relationship with the far-right factions in his government. When other members of the Israeli right had abandoned Netanyahu because of his ongoing corruption trial and unpopularity with a large portion of the Israeli public, it was Ben-Gvir and Smotrich who backed him.
Without them, he would not have been able to cobble a governing coalition together, and without them, so the thinking goes, his government would fall, and with it, any chance at granting himself immunity from prosecution.
But Netanyahu, long known as the great survivor, appears to have another plan for survival.
The important ultra-Orthodox religious bloc is among the majority of the people in his government who support the ceasefire. The opposition has also stated that it will provide a security net to Netanyahu in order to pass the deal.
According to analysts, the prime minister may have noticed that the Israeli public is more open to a deal that would allow the captives to return home and put an end to the war. He has always had a good sense of how the public feels.
It is advantageous for Israel to assert that its allies, including Hamas, Hezbollah, and most importantly Iran, have been dealt significant blows by claiming that it has reestablished deterrence.
However, the triumphalism over those geopolitical victories has replaced a sense of resentment and acceptance that the war must end, according to Israeli political scientist Ori Goldberg.
“Nobody’s really celebrating”, Goldberg said. Everyone was aware that this was going to happen. Over the past 15 months, Israelis have been sort of snoozed. Life has become hard for many Israelis, not as hard as we’ve made it for Palestinians, but hard”.
“For 15 months, we’ve been told that we’re just on the verge of absolute victory, but we’ve achieved nothing other than destruction and killing”, Goldberg added. “We’re tired. Don’t get me wrong, many people would still destroy Gaza if it provided security, but we’ve been working hard and still don’t have it.
“Israelis are spent”, he continued. These initial six weeks should provide some momentum for a settlement, according to the author.
Counting the costs
Thus, Netanyahu may be able to capitalize on the support from the general public and even claim to be the one who won the war and set several strategic goals before any new elections, giving himself yet another stay of political execution.
However, for Israeli society, waging war on a scale that human rights organizations have hailed as genocide, in addition to the soldiers carrying bodies from Gaza and Lebanon and Israel’s growing international isolation.
In fact, for many observers, the Israel emerging from the carnage of Gaza is one far removed from the state that existed before the Hamas-led attacks of October 7, 2023, which killed 1, 139 people.
The right-wing extremes of Israeli politics have staked a claim to power in the wake of the subsequent conflict, and security services’ reach has surpassed what many believed was previously unattainable.
Given the divisions created by the country’s war on Gaza and attempts by Netanyahu’s government to seize control of the courts, according to a paper from May that Eugene Kandel and Ron Tzur, two renowned Israeli academics, made the observation that “there is a good chance that Israel will not be able to exist as a sovereign Jewish state in the foreseeable future.”
“There’s definitely been a moral corruption within Israel”, said Dr Guy Shalev, the executive director of Physicians for Human Rights Israel, which has documented the denial of medical aid and torture of Palestinians.
“The devaluing of human life, especially Palestinian life, which wasn’t regarded as worth much before the war, has been dramatic”, Shalev said.
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