Verstappen, Russell & Mercedes – what factors are at play?

Less than 24 hours after George Russell broke Mercedes ‘ contract talks with Max Verstappen out into the open at the Austrian Grand Prix, his team boss Toto Wolff made an attempt to calm the situation down.

At the end of the current season, Briton Russell is owed money. It was “only normal that conversations with the likes of Verstappen are ongoing,” he claimed in the context of his own discussions with Mercedes about a new deal.

Wolff spent an entire news conference on Friday afternoon at the Red Bull Ring very much not denying that he was talking to Verstappen.

He claimed that Mercedes was “transparent” and that it was “territory that I don’t want to discuss.” Wolff remarked, “I always back the driver.” “There’s no such thing as saying things I wouldn’t want him to say”.

However, Wolff stated directly to television cameras that Verstappen’s signing as a Mercedes was “not realistic at this stage” and that Russell was more likely than Verstappen to be in the Mercedes next year.

Verstappen appears to be a Red Bull driver for the foreseeable future and beyond. “Max has a contract until 2028,” according to a Red Bull spokesman.

At the same time, Verstappen and his management have talked with Mercedes about the possibility of moving there next year. Verstappen is likely to be able to leave his Red Bull contract if necessary.

In April, Helmut Marko, a Red Bull motorsport expert, expressed “great concern” about Verstappen’s future in the team given their performance. And in March he told BBC Sport: “We know that if we don’t deliver for Max, all the top drivers have performance clauses in their contract”.

Verstappen believes there are compelling arguments for switching from Red Bull to Mercedes.

With his current team, he has won four consecutive drivers’ titles, but Red Bull has fallen off a pedestal in recent years.

Verstappen built up such a large lead in the first half of last season that he was able to hold off a late challenge from McLaren and Lando Norris with relative comfort.

However, Red Bull haven’t been able to mount a consistent challenge this season despite McLaren’s strong start.

Verstappen has won two victories, but both have come on circuits with primarily quick corners. On balance, the McLaren is the faster car.

Adrian Newey, a design legend at Red Bull, and Jonathan Wheatley, a long-time sports director, were given the opportunity to leave them.

Sergio Perez, a former Red Bull driver who was fired at the end of last year but able to negotiate a deal that required the team to pay him for the two years of his contract, claimed in a podcast this week that Newey’s departure was the direct cause of Red Bull’s decline.

It would be no surprise if, in those circumstances, Verstappen’s confidence in Red Bull’s ability to design a fully competitive car had taken a knock.

Then there are the new regulations that will apply to F1 starting in 2015, which will significantly alter both cars and engines. Particularly significant is the engine change. It increases the proportion of total performance of the engine provided by the electrical components to 50%.

Red Bull has established a new business to create and manufacture its own engine. That was always going to be a challenging task, and Red Bull is struggling while Mercedes are leading the charge in terms of performance with the new engines.

Russell has been driving an excellent season, and comes into the weekend in Austria after a dominant victory in Canada last time out.

However, his comments on Thursday exposed the issue for the Briton.

Russell claimed that Tomo has made it abundantly clear that I am the best of everyone.

“There is only one driver that you can debate in terms of performance. And because of this, I have no concern for my future, he has said these things, not my words.

However, there are two seats in each team, so I suppose he needs to consider who those two drivers will be for those two seats, and I suppose that’s what the delay is.

That” one driver “is obviously Verstappen. The Dutchman is regarded as the best driver in Formula One right now, a driver who consistently delivers excellence above that of his competitors.

Verstappen’s perception of a Mercedes-powered vehicle will depend on how well-balanced a package they can make for him.

Verstappen includes all of its baggage. For one thing, he is very expensive. His current Red Bull salary is said to be in the range of $75 million (£55 million). Before endorsements and other add-ons, that’s what.

Red Bull don’t have to justify that spend to anyone. A private company, they are. Even though he is the best in the world, it might not be so simple for Mercedes to justify that kind of expenditure on a racing driver.

And if they can’t, would Verstappen be prepared to take a pay cut to drive a potentially more competitive car?

Then comes the image-related problem. Verstappen, a controversial character, occasionally drags things past the point of acceptance.

From time to time, he does things that Mercedes might not feel comfortable being associated with their brand – think back two races to his collision with Russell in Spain, or to Mexico last year, when his driving against Lando Norris earned him two 10-second penalties.

Verstappen also has his own voice and dictates everything he wants. He is intelligent and frequently crosses the company line. But just as with his on-track behaviour, every now and again he decides he wants to say his piece in a way that a more corporate environment might not find so acceptable.

He also demands that the team provide for him. For instance, it’s difficult to imagine Verstappen agreeing to the McLaren, Norris, and Oscar Piastri’s approach to team-first.

Williams team principal James Vowles, who was a central part of Mercedes ‘ F1 management structure before taking on his new role in 2023, touched on this when he was asked about the prospect of Verstappen moving to Mercedes earlier this year.

Can you give it a little bit more performance? Yes, “Vowles said,” through Max. I think there is more performance to be added through Max.

Nobody in the room would dispute his extraordinary abilities, “I don’t think anyone would believe that.” However, we must also bear in mind that he also has some drawbacks.

” And I think what Mercedes does have is a great culture with two drivers that are delivering near to the peak of the car and with one that’s on the way up. Therefore, I personally don’t believe he has a home.

Wolff has another factor to consider while he is in this exploratory phase with Verstappen and his management.

Both Russell and his current teammate Kimi Antonelli have long-standing Mercedes ties. One of them would have to be replaced by Verstappen for Wolff.

On paper, Russell has been comfortably the stronger performer this year. However, Antonelli is only 18 years old and a rookie.

Over the past few years, Russell and Verstappen have engaged in difficult relationships.

This started with a row over an incident at the 2022 Azerbaijan Grand Prix, and blew up massively over an incident in Qatar last year, in which Russell accused Verstappen of being a” bully”, and Verstappen said Russell was a” loser “and a” backstabber”. Verstappen and Russell collided in the final stages of the Spanish Grand Prix, which gave it a second chance two races ago.

Wolff emphasized the importance of this on Friday, citing Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg’s three-year partnership as team-mates. “So everything else is simple afterwards. There’s pros and cons of having two drivers fighting each other hard. That has been used in some instances, but there have also been others that haven’t.

What he did not say was that Wolff had to specifically avoid having to deal with that level of tension once more after the Hamilton-Rosberg incident.

He also knew that he could handle Hamilton and Russell together because of their personalities and being at different stages of their career, likewise with Russell and Antonelli.

Verstappen and Russell would be completely different people. Verstappen may not even consider Russell to be a team-mate in the context of their relationship, even if Mercedes thought they could handle it.

Russell is most likely looking for a car if Verstappen and Mercedes can agree on a deal. And his only realistic option would be the seat vacated by Verstappen.

Red Bull would need a top-tier driver, and Russell would have the best driver available, in addition to the fact that Russell’s line-ups at McLaren and Ferrari are both confirmed for the following year.

With Newey and Honda engines, Aston Martin might be appealing, but they also have two 2026 contract drivers.

All of which makes this an especially uncomfortable time for Russell, who has been one of the most impressive drivers of the season, has comprehensively outpaced his team-mate, but has no option but to sit and watch his boss explore his options.