Verstappen, Russell & Mercedes – what factors are at play?

Less than 24 hours after George Russell broke Mercedes’ contract talks with Max Verstappen out into the open at the Austrian Grand Prix, his team boss Toto Wolff made an attempt to calm the situation down.

Briton Russell is out of contract at the end of this season. He said, in the context of his own discussions with Mercedes about a new deal, that it was “only normal that conversations with the likes of Verstappen are ongoing”.

Wolff spent an entire news conference on Friday afternoon at the Red Bull Ring very much not denying that he was talking to Verstappen.

He said it was “territory that I don’t want to discuss”, but added that “people talk” and that Mercedes were “transparent” within their organisation. “I’m always supportive of the driver,” Wolff said. “There’s no such thing as saying things I wouldn’t want him to say.”

Speaking to television cameras straight after the news conference, though, Wolff said that Russell was likelier to be in the Mercedes than Verstappen next year, and that signing Verstappen was “not realistic at this stage”.

On paper, Verstappen is a Red Bull driver next year and beyond. A Red Bull spokesperson said: “Max has a contract to 2028.”

At the same time, Verstappen and his management have talked with Mercedes about the possibility of moving there next year. And it’s likely Verstappen could find a way out of his Red Bull contract if he really wanted to.

Red Bull motorsport adviser Helmut Marko said in April that he had “great concern” about Verstappen’s future in the team given their performance at the time. And in March he told BBC Sport: “We know that if we don’t deliver for Max, all the top drivers have performance clauses in their contract.”

For Verstappen, there are obvious reasons why a move away from Red Bull to Mercedes might seem attractive.

He has won four consecutive drivers’ titles with his current team, but in the past 18 months Red Bull have slipped from their competitive pedestal.

Verstappen built up such a large lead in the first half of last season that he was able to hold off a late challenge from McLaren and Lando Norris with relative comfort.

But McLaren started this season off strongly, and Red Bull have not been able to mount a consistent challenge.

Verstappen has taken two wins, but they have come on similar types of circuit – those with predominantly quick corners. On balance, the McLaren is the faster car.

This has come in the context of Red Bull losing their design legend Adrian Newey to Aston Martin, and long-time sporting director Jonathan Wheatley to Sauber.

Former Red Bull driver Sergio Perez, sacked at the end of last season but able to negotiate a deal that forced the team to pay him for the two years of his contract they are not fulfilling, said in a podcast this week that Red Bull’s decline dated directly from Newey’s departure.

It would be no surprise if, in those circumstances, Verstappen’s confidence in Red Bull’s ability to design a fully competitive car had taken a knock.

Then there are the new rules coming into force in F1 next year, which represent a major change to both cars and engines. The engine change is especially large. It increases the proportion of total performance of the engine provided by the electrical components to 50%.

Red Bull have set up a new company to develop and build its own engine. That was always going to be a tough task, and at the moment the widespread belief within F1 is that Mercedes are leading the way on performance with the new engines, and that Red Bull are struggling.

Russell has been driving an excellent season, and comes into the weekend in Austria after a dominant victory in Canada last time out.

But his comments on Thursday laid bare the problem as far as the Briton is concerned.

“Toto has made it clear to me that how I’m performing is as good as anybody,” Russell said.

“There is only one driver that you can debate in terms of performance. And these are his words and not my words, and that is why I have no concern about my future.

“But there are two seats to every team and I guess he needs to think who are those two drivers going to be for those two seats and I guess that’s what the delay is.”

That “one driver” is obviously Verstappen. The Dutchman is regarded throughout F1 as the outstanding driver on the grid at the moment, someone who produces a consistent level of excellence that none of his colleagues can match.

How appealing a Mercedes drive might be to Verstappen will depend on the package they can put together for him.

Verstappen does not come without baggage. For one thing, he is very expensive. His current Red Bull salary is said to be about $75m (£55m). And that’s before endorsements and other add-ons.

Red Bull don’t have to justify that spend to anyone. They are a private company. But it might not be so easy for Mercedes, as a corporate entity, to justify that sort of outlay on a racing driver, even if he is the best in the world.

And if they can’t, would Verstappen be prepared to take a pay cut to drive a potentially more competitive car?

Then there is the question of image. Verstappen is a controversial character who takes things to the edge of acceptability on track and sometimes beyond.

From time to time, he does things that Mercedes might not feel comfortable being associated with their brand – think back two races to his collision with Russell in Spain, or to Mexico last year, when his driving against Lando Norris earned him two 10-second penalties.

Verstappen is also very much his own man, who says and does what he wants. He’s smart and usually toes the company line. But just as with his on-track behaviour, every now and again he decides he wants to say his piece in a way that a more corporate environment might not find so acceptable.

He also demands that the team operates for him. It’s hard to imagine Verstappen, for example, agreeing to accept the sort of team-first philosophy operated by McLaren with Norris and Oscar Piastri.

Williams team principal James Vowles, who was a central part of Mercedes’ F1 management structure before taking on his new role in 2023, touched on this when he was asked about the prospect of Verstappen moving to Mercedes earlier this year.

“Can you add a tiny bit more performance? Yes through Max,” Vowles said. “I think there is more performance to be added through Max.

“I don’t think anyone in the room would deny that he is extraordinary in what he can do. But he comes with a lot of downsides as well that we have to acknowledge.

“And I think what Mercedes does have is a great culture with two drivers that are delivering near to the peak of the car and with one that’s on the way up. So I personally don’t think there’s a place for him.”

Wolff has another factor to consider while he is in this exploratory phase with Verstappen and his management.

Both Russell and his current team-mate Kimi Antonelli are long-time Mercedes proteges. Wolff would have to drop one of them to make way for Verstappen.

On paper, Russell has been comfortably the stronger performer this year. But Antonelli is a rookie and only 18.

Russell and Verstappen have had a difficult relationship over the past few years.

This started with a row over an incident at the 2022 Azerbaijan Grand Prix, and blew up massively over an incident in Qatar last year, in which Russell accused Verstappen of being a “bully”, and Verstappen said Russell was a “loser” and a “backstabber”. It was revived two races ago when Verstappen collided with Russell in the closing stages of the Spanish Grand Prix.

Wolff diminished the importance of this on Friday, pointing to the fact that he managed to have Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg as team-mates for three years from 2014-16, adding: “So everything else afterwards is easy. There’s pros and cons of having two drivers fighting each other hard. We’ve seen examples where that functioned and other examples where it didn’t.”

What he did not say is that after the Hamilton-Rosberg experience, Wolff deliberately chose Valtteri Bottas as Hamilton’s next team-mate, specifically to avoid having to deal with that level of tension again.

He also knew that he could handle Hamilton and Russell together because of their personalities and being at different stages of their career; likewise with Russell and Antonelli.

Verstappen and Russell would be a whole different prospect. Even if Mercedes felt they could handle that combination, it’s hard to see Verstappen even accepting Russell as a team-mate in the context of their relationship.

Should Verstappen be able to reach an agreement with Mercedes, Russell would most likely be looking for a drive. And his only realistic option would be the seat vacated by Verstappen.

That’s not only because Red Bull would need a top-line driver and Russell would be the best available, but also because there are no other competitive options for Russell – the line-ups at McLaren and Ferrari are confirmed for next year.

Aston Martin might be appealing, with Newey and Honda engines, but they also have two drivers under contract for 2026.

All of which makes this an especially uncomfortable time for Russell, who has been one of the most impressive drivers of the season, has comprehensively outpaced his team-mate, but has no option but to sit and watch his boss explore his options.