In Geneva, senior US officials are negotiating with Ukrainian and European diplomats about US President Donald Trump’s peace plan, which would end the nearly four-year-old conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
But the so-called 28-point plan pushed by the Trump administration has alarmed Ukraine and its European allies, who see it as a capitulation to Russian demands, particularly territorial concessions and limits on the size of Ukraine’s military.
Trump had set a November 27 deadline for Ukraine to accept his peace plan, but after European leaders complained, Washington appears to have softened its position, with Trump claiming that the plan was not an “final offer” for Ukraine.
This will likely create some wriggle room for diplomacy at the high-stakes talks in Geneva, Switzerland.
Why, then, do the draft plan’s supporters in Europe object to it? Who’s participating? What is planned for Geneva? And does the plan favour Moscow?
What’s on the agenda at the US-Ukraine talks in Geneva?
The discussions aim to achieve a balance between Kyiv and its European allies, who want Kyiv’s long-term security interests safeguarded.
Representatives from Ukraine, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, and the European Union will join top US officials, including US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, to discuss how to end the war – Europe’s deadliest since World War II. Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the president of Ukraine, has stated that there will also be Russian presence.
The talks, Al Jazeera’s Hashem Ahelbarra said, “could be the most decisive moment for Ukraine”.
According to Ahelbarra, who is based in Geneva, “the nature of the 28-plan drafted by the Americans piqued the interest of Ukrainians and Europeans a great deal.”
“The concerns are about the territorial concessions: We’re talking about Luhansk, Donetsk and Crimea, which the Ukrainians, as per the plan, have to give up in exchange for the potential of a permanent deal with Russia. Particularly in Kherson and Zaporizhia, they must freeze the front lines.
” The third element is the reduction of the capacity of the Ukrainian armed forces from 900, 000 soldiers to 600, 000, and this is widely perceived by the Ukrainians as a major concession they cannot afford to make, “Ahelbarra said.
Zelenskyy stated in a message on X on Sunday that he hopes the outcome will be “a result.”
” The bloodshed must be stopped, and we must ensure that the war is never reignited, “the Ukrainian leader said”. I’m eagerly anticipating today’s discussions’ outcomes and wishing everyone a positive day. We all need a positive outcome. “
Who is speaking at the talks?
The US’s Rubio and Witkoff are leading the Geneva talks, which will also include US Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll.
Nine Ukrainian officials, including president-elect Andriy Yermak’s representative and top envoy Rustem Umerov, who have been given the authority to deal directly with Russia by the president, are present for the discussions.
National security advisers from the E3 alliance of France, Britain and Germany will also join the discussions, alongside other officials from the EU, including Italy.
Why are European leaders raising concerns about Trump’s peace plan?
The current peace plan, according to Ukraine’s European allies, does not address its security concerns. They say Russia cannot be rewarded with territory for invading Ukraine.
Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, stated on Sunday that “any credible and sustainable peace plan should first and foremost stop the killing and end the war, while avoiding causing a future conflict.”
She spelled out three elements required for a just and lasting peace, stating that borders should not be changed by force, that there should not be a cap on Ukraine’s military, and that the EU should be central to securing peace for Ukraine.
Ukraine must be free to make their own decisions. They have chosen a European destiny, “von der Leyen said.
European and other Western leaders criticized Trump’s plan on the sidelines of the Group of 20 (G20) summit in Johannesburg, South Africa on Saturday, saying it needed “more work.”
” We are ready to engage in order to ensure that a future peace is sustainable. The UK, Canada, Finland, France, Spain, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Germany, Norway, and the Republic of Ireland all agreed on the principle that borders must not be changed by force.
The statement noted that the allies were” concerned by the proposed limitations on Ukraine’s armed forces, which would leave Ukraine vulnerable to future attack”, adding that any decisions regarding NATO and the EU would require the consent of member states.
In February of this year, Russia invaded Ukraine and has since taken control of the eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Moscow had annexed the Crimean Peninsula in 2014.
Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk will be de facto Russian territory, according to Trump’s proposed strategy. Ukrainian forces will be required to withdraw from parts of Donetsk that they currently control, while Kherson and Zaporizhia will be frozen along the line of contact.
In addition, the proposed plan would require Ukraine to reduce its military and abandon its plans to join NATO, which had previously been a major sticking point. The size of the Ukrainian armed forces will be limited to 600, 000 personnel.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz stated in a lengthy phone call with Trump that any peace process must involve Europe.
” An end to the war can only be achieved with the unconditional consent of Ukraine, “Merz said during the G20 summit briefing”. However, we still have a way to go before the outcome is satisfactory for everyone.
Von der Leyen noted that a key principle for Kyiv’s European allies was” nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine”.
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer stated in a press release before the G20 summit that “Russia consistently pretends to be serious about peace, but their actions never live up to their words.”
French President Emmanuel Macron said on Saturday that Russia would” betray “its promise and” come back “if there are no elements of deterrence and if Ukraine were to cut its army size and follow Trump’s plan.
Macron praised US efforts to end world war, but stated that the current proposal “must be strengthened” and that Ukraine must never be left vulnerable.
Macron wrote”, Everyone wants peace – except Russia, which continues to stubbornly bomb Ukraine”, adding that support for Ukraine was” decisive”.
Kaja Kallas, the EU’s foreign policy representative, said that Russia has no legal right to demand any concessions from the invader.
But US Vice President JD Vance has rebuked criticism of the peace plan.
The vice president posted on X on Saturday, “There is a fantasy that victory is possible if we just give more money, more weapons, or more sanctions.” Peace won’t be made by failed diplomats or politicians living in a fantasy land. It might be created by knowledgeable individuals who practice reality.
What has Zelenskyy’s plan been discussed in Ukraine?
Zelenskyy said that Ukraine was trying to defend its sovereignty while retaining the support of its most important ally, the United States. If Zelenskyy rejected the proposal, Trump had said that he could “fight his little heart out.”
” Now is one of the most difficult moments of our history. One of the heaviest pressures is currently being applied to Ukraine. Now, Ukraine can face a very difficult choice — either losing dignity or risk losing a major partner, “Zelenskky said.
Zelenskyy stated in a 10-minute speech outside the presidential palace that Kyiv would be “without freedom, dignity, and justice” if his nation implements the proposed plan.
Accepting the plan, which has been widely viewed as favouring Moscow, would also mean believing” someone who has already attacked us twice”, said Zelenskyy.
The president of Ukraine said, “I will present arguments, I will persuade, I will make alternatives,” adding that they would do so. He then referred to the Russian invasion in February 2022, saying:” We did not betray Ukraine then, we will not do so now. “
Zelenskyy stated on Sunday that Ukraine’s top priority is to “work as constructively as possible on the steps suggested by the United States.”
” We are working to ensure that the path toward ending the war is real and that the principled elements are put into action, “he said after a call with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney.
Does Trump’s peace strategy favor Moscow?
European leaders are concerned that Trump’s proposal heavily favours Russia, which has been seeking to control all of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Despite gradually gaining ground on the battlefronts, Moscow currently controls some of that territory.
A group of US senators said on Saturday that they were told by Rubio, who is also Trump’s national security adviser, that the widely leaked draft peace plan did not reflect the US position, but was a Russian” wish list”.
At a security conference in Canada, Senator Mike Rounds, a Republican from South Dakota, said, “It looked more like it was written in Russian.”
However, Rubio denied the assertions, insisting that the plan was” authored by the US “and it was” based on input “from both Russia and Ukraine.
Rounds claimed that he had been assured that “someone representing Russia” would present the plan to Witkoff, Trump’s overseas envoy. The senator continued:” It is not our recommendation. Not as our peace strategy.
Later, a US Department of State spokesperson said Rounds’s account of his conversation with Rubio was” blatantly false”.
Vladimir Putin, the president of Russia, claimed that Washington’s 28-point plan “could lay the groundwork for a final peace agreement.”
Putin also threatened to seize more territory if Ukraine does not accept the proposal, warning that the reported capture of the Ukrainian city of Kupiansk” will inevitably be repeated in other key areas of the front line”.
According to journalist Audrey MacAlpine, who spoke from Kyiv, Russia has been gaining ground in areas of Ukraine where the peace proposal would give it territory along the line of contact.
She told Al Jazeera that Moscow had carried out overnight attacks on Kherson and Zaporizhia, two regions where Russia would gain de facto control under the 28-point plan being discussed in Geneva.
No doubt that Russia is working hard to improve these particular regions, and she was right. They’ve been making slow but concerted gains. “
Is Trump likely to seal the peace deal this time?
We are still unsure.
During his presidential campaign leading up to the 2024 US election, Trump claimed that he could end Russia’s war on Ukraine within a day. Despite Washington’s diplomatic pressure, a deal remained elusive.
Since returning to power for a second term in January, Trump has made resolving foreign conflicts central to US foreign policy. He claimed to have helped put an end to a number of wars, including the India-Pakistan war, the Thailand-Cambodia war, and Israel’s genocidal war against Gaza. Trump even asked for a Nobel Peace Prize for stopping wars.
Despite holding a summit with Putin in Alaska in August, he has struggled to put an end to the Russian-Ukraine conflict.
Trump’s first meeting with Zelenskyy ended in acrimony back in February. Since the White House meeting in February, the US president has made up with the Ukrainian leader. But his attempt to organise a meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy has not materialised.
Trump threatened Russia with severe consequences if Putin vowed to end the conflict in August. He even announced sanctions on Moscow to force it to end the war. He also imposed high tariffs on India for purchasing Russian oil, which he claimed was used to fund Moscow’s war effort.
As the talks were under way in Geneva on Sunday, Trump again took aim at Ukraine, saying Kyiv has not been grateful for American efforts related to the war with Russia.
Source: Aljazeera
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