Trump, Congress and the Epstein files: What happens next?

A United States House of Representatives push to release files related to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein cleared a significant hurdle November 12, as Democrats and a handful of Republicans reached 218 signatures to force a floor vote on a bill to release the files within 30 days.

There’s still a long road ahead.

Republican leaders aligned with President Donald Trump’s wishes by stalling Democrat-backed legislation to release the files. Trump, a onetime friend of Epstein, has faced persistent questions about what the files may show about the two men’s history.

Bill sponsors Representatives Thomas Massie and Ro Khanna used an arcane procedural tactic called a discharge petition to secure floor consideration. The move came over the objections of Speaker Mike Johnson and other Republican leaders. Johnson has argued that the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee’s ongoing effort is sufficient. The committee has released tranches of emails and other documents related to Epstein, most recently on November 12, a release that included emails from Epstein that discussed Trump.

For weeks, the discharge effort was stuck at 217 votes – one short of the required 218 – but supporters reached the magic number on November 12 when newly elected Representative Adelita Grijalva was sworn in 50 days after being elected, the longest delay in recent history.

Grijalva signed the petition shortly after her swearing-in, making the discharge official. Massie and three other Republican members – Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, Lauren Boebert of Colorado and Nancy Mace of South Carolina – joined all Democrats in signing it.

Though Johnson could have delayed it further, he said he would bring the measure for a vote the week of November 17.

Trump opposes further releases of Epstein material, writing on Truth Social November 12 that Republicans should focus only on opening up the government, which was still shut down because of a funding impasse. “There should be no deflections to Epstein or anything else,” his post said.

Here’s a guide to what happens next with this legislation and what’s at stake.

Who was Epstein?

Epstein hobnobbed with powerful people and received lenient treatment by the criminal justice system until the Miami Herald published an extensive investigation into his case in 2018.

In 2005, Palm Beach police began investigating Epstein after reports that a 14-year-old girl had been molested at his mansion. A grand jury indicted Epstein in 2006 on a single count of prostitution and he was arrested. The FBI launched an investigation and was prepared to bring an indictment, but in 2008 Epstein pleaded to one state count of soliciting prostitution and one state count of soliciting prostitution from someone under the age of 18. He served about a year in jail, largely on work release.

The Miami Herald investigation found federal prosecutors and Epstein’s lawyers covered up the scope of Epstein’s crimes.

In July 2019, Epstein was arrested on federal charges for recruiting dozens of underage girls to his New York City mansion and Palm Beach estate from 2002 to 2005 to engage in sex acts for money. He was found dead in his Manhattan jail cell on August 10, 2019, and investigators concluded he died by suicide.

What are the Epstein files?

The Trump administration has given conflicting information about what’s in the Epstein files.

In February, Attorney General Pam Bondi released what she called the “first phase” of the declassified Epstein files, including flight logs, an evidence list and a redacted list of contacts. Bondi said the Justice Department would release more case files after redacting victims’ names.

When Fox News host John Roberts asked Bondi in February whether her department would release a list of Epstein’s clients, she said, “It’s sitting on my desk right now to review.”

But in a July memo, the Justice Department said there was “no incriminating ‘client list’”.

“There was also no credible evidence found that Epstein blackmailed prominent individuals as part of his actions,” the memo said. “We did not uncover evidence that could predicate an investigation against uncharged third parties.”

What would the legislation do?

The Massie-Khanna bill, titled the Epstein Files Transparency Act, requires that no later than 30 days after the bill’s enactment, the attorney general shall release “all unclassified records, documents, communications, and investigative materials” held by the Justice Department, the FBI and federal prosecutors’ offices relating to Epstein and his partner Ghislaine Maxwell, who was sentenced to 20 years in prison for sexual exploitation and abuse of minor girls over the course of a decade.

These materials would include flight logs and travel records related to Epstein, documents related to people and companies connected to Epstein, prosecution documents and internal Justice Department communications about Epstein-related cases and material related to his death in custody.

Under the legislation, documents containing victims’ identifiable information may be withheld or redacted. So would materials depicting child sex abuse, death or injury, or materials that would jeopardise an ongoing federal investigation, or prosecution or that would endanger national security. However, “embarrassment, reputational harm, or political sensitivity” cannot be invoked to withhold material, the legislation says.

What are the bill’s prospects for House passage?

The steepest hurdle in the House was securing the 218th signature.

With that achieved, Khanna said he expects dozens more Republicans to vote for the bill than the four who signed on to the discharge petition, The Hill reported.

What happens if the bill passes the House?

If the legislation clears the House, it would head to the Senate. It would need 60 Senate votes to proceed to final consideration, meaning at least 13 Republicans would have to join all 47 Democrats and Democratic-aligned independents to advance. That’s a challenging obstacle.

“It is treated the same as any other bill, solely subject to the discretion of the majority leadership,” Donald Wolfensberger, a former staff director of the House Rules Committee, said.

In July, reporters asked Senate Majority Leader John Thune whether any Senate Republicans supported forcing more Epstein file disclosure. He said he was “not hearing” much desire within his conference to push the issue.

Thune said that when the House petition was still gathering signatures, and a successful House vote – especially with strong Republican support – could change that Senate calculus. But even if the Senate were to pass the legislation, the measure would face its stiffest test with Trump, who could veto the bill.

Overriding a presidential veto would require a two-thirds vote of both chambers, which would require substantial Republican support in opposition to their own party’s leader.

How much new material could come from the law’s enactment?

If the measure became law, Trump could still find ways to neuter its impact.

“The implementation of its provisions would still rely on Justice Department compliance,” a department that Trump has asserted significant control over, said Stanley Brand, a longtime Washington DC attorney who serves as distinguished fellow at Penn State Dickinson Law.

The Justice Department could argue to withhold certain documents, and resolving legal challenges to those decisions could put document releases at a standstill, Brand said.

“Complex questions of standing and federal court jurisdiction to entertain such a suit would undoubtedly stall resolution,” he said.

Dave Aronberg, a Democratic former state attorney of Palm Beach County, Florida, said he expects the Justice Department to have “wiggle room” with the exceptions included in the legislation.

Source: Aljazeera