The six problems a Gaza ceasefire has brought Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu

In the eyes of some observers, peace has still come too soon for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu despite the staggering death toll and human suffering Israel has caused Gaza over the past two years.

The Israeli leader has been accused of using the war to divert attention away from his position and even his freedom. None of those issues have been resolved because of the current ceasefire in Gaza.

Even former Israeli ambassador Alon Pinkas, who was pressured into the White House over the growing financial and diplomatic costs of the Israeli conflict, sees the ceasefire as being stage-managed and forced upon him.

What issues does Netanyahu face before the upcoming Israeli elections and beyond, and how dangerous are they if he can’t find a second war?

Let’s examine this more closely.

Will the Israeli prime minister face isolation from other countries?

Netanyahu has become the face of Israel’s isolation on a global scale for many.

More than 67, 000 Palestinians were killed by Israel in the past two years, and Gaza is where it is now in the midst of a famine. The increased coverage of what his government has done to the enclave is likely to cement Israel’s pariah status for the time being until Netanyahu’s government can permanently ban international journalists from reaching Gaza.

Israel’s growing isolation has been apparent for months, and in September, Netanyahu appeared to be setting the stage for it to continue. In a reference to the martial ancient Greek state, Netanyahu depicted his vision for a future “Super Sparta” as a form of economic and diplomatic isolation and persistent conflict.

It wasn’t very well received. The shekel sank almost immediately in comparison to other currencies, and the Israeli stock exchange plummeted. We are not Sparta, according to the 200-strong Israel Business Forum, which stands for 200 of the country’s largest businesses.

Could Netanyahu’s coalition be scuttled by the right?

Netanyahu is already taking steps to prevent it, but it might.

Netanyahu has heavily relied on the support of Israel’s far right throughout the conflict and the earlier public disputes over the judiciary’s independence.

Italel Smotrich, the country’s finance minister, and Itamar Ben-Gvir, the country’s top security official, have both expressed opposition to the ceasefire while governing the country’s coalition, for the time being.

In the hope that this will lead to the return of ultra-Orthodox parties in the parliament and help his government survive in the event of any defections, Netanyahu is reported to be proposing legislation to exempt ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students from the draft.

Netanyahu and Israel could still be found guilty by the International Criminal Court (ICC) and the International Court of Justice (ICJ)?

They could .

Israeli Prime Minister Yoav Gallant, former defense minister, and Hamas’s military commander Mohammed Deif, who Israel has since killed, were all the subjects of an international arrest warrant issued by the ICC in November 2024 for war crimes.

Many people are certain that Netanyahu will be held accountable for the genocide against Israel if a guilty verdict is handed down.

A verdict in the ICC case against Gallant and Netanyahu is not anticipated until the end of 2027, at the very least. The ICC may impose a 30-year prison sentence if found guilty, while the ICJ would typically send the guilty verdict to the UN Security Council for review.

Trump might choose Netanyahu over him.

It is a real possibility.

In the face of hostility from other countries, the US is currently Israel’s primary economic and military sponsor as well as its diplomatic bulwark. Without it, Netanyahu and Israel would be in serious trouble.

Whatever Netanyahu might say, there are bounds to the support of US President Donald Trump. When Netanyahu became one of the first leaders to congratulate former US President Joe Biden on his victory in the 2021 election, Trump reportedly expressed anger.

In May, he is said to have stopped speaking with the Israeli prime minister over concerns that Netanyahu was attempting to manipulate him.

During a recent alleged uproar over Israel’s alleged assault on Hamas negotiators in Doha in September, Trump reportedly said, “He’s screwing me.”

Trump has described how he “had it out” with Netanyahu and how he wouldn’t allow Israel to redeploy to Gaza until “I say the word” when describing the process of the ceasefire.

Trump later described the ceasefire as having been in place for 3, 000 years, telling his audience, “And it’s going to hold up, too” as he formally inaugurated it at the Israeli parliament.

He’s unlikely to enjoy being gambled away well.

Will Israel conduct an investigation into Netanyahu’s misdeeds ahead of the September 7 attack?

It appears to be getting more and more likely.

Separate investigations into the army’s and intelligence service’s failures in the months leading up to the Hamas-led attack on October 7, 2023, which claimed 1, 139 lives and about 250 were abducted, revealed flagrant errors and confusion in Israel’s security services as they struggled to deal with an assault they had not anticipated.

Following each inquiry, both the intelligence and army made their resignations.

Netanyahu did not object to those inquiries, but he has resisted one into the role of his own government, arguing that it would be politically biased and impossible to carry out in a wartime.

However, Israel’s High Court unanimously decided there was no longer “any real argument” to delay it, giving the government 30 days to respond.

Netanyahu might spend some time behind bars.

The Israeli prime minister’s option for jail time is still a possibility.

Trump almost made up his mind about Netanyahu’s corruption trial on Monday and Israel’s protracted war in Gaza.

Trump demanded that Israeli President Isaac Herzog pardon Netanyahu for what he characterized as “cigars and champagne” during his address to the Israeli parliament.

In reality, Netanyahu has been tried in three corruption cases throughout the war, all of which have continued despite lengthy delays.

Source: Aljazeera