More than 90% of the government’s revenues are derived from oil, and Sudan is entirely dependent on Sudan to export the precious resource.
However, according to an official government letter seen by Al Jazeera, Sudan’s army-backed government claimed this month that it was planning to shut down the facilities that its southern neighbor uses to export its oil.
According to experts, making that choice could cause South Sudan’s economy to collapse and lead to the army’s and the country’s unresolved civil war (RSF).
The RSF launched suicide drones at Port Sudan, the army’s strategic Red Sea coast, on May 9, following the launch of the announcement.
The strikes shattered the city’s sense of security because they damaged electricity grids and a fuel depot, which are far from the nation’s front lines.
Sudan’s army claims exporting South Sudan’s oil has been hampered by the damage.
According to Alan Boswell, an expert on the Horn of Africa with the International Crisis Group, “the announcement read like a desperate plea]to South Sudan] for assistance.
However, he continued, “I believe doing so overestimates the influence South Sudan has over the RSF.”
Predatory economics
Since South Sudan’s independence from Sudan in 2011, the former has relied on Port Sudan to export its oil.
In return, Sudan has collected payments from Juba as part of their 2005 peace agreement, which ended the 22-year civil war in the north and ultimately caused South Sudan to secede.
The army and RSF both continued to collect fees from Juba when another civil war broke out in Sudan in 2023.
According to Boswell, “Sudan and South Sudan] are financially stable because of the infrastructure for oil exports,”
According to local media reports, high-level South Sudanese and Sudanese officials are in talks to stop oil exports.
Mohieddein Naiem Mohamed, the energy and petroleum minister in Port Sudan, was contacted by Al Jazeera in writing to inquire whether the army was negotiating higher rents with South Sudan before resumed oil exports, which some experts believed to be a likely scenario.
Before the publication, Naiem Mohamed did not respond.
The International Crisis Group claims that Juba also pays off the RSF to protect oil pipelines that traverse its own country.
Additionally, South Sudan has granted permission for the RSF to operate in the border’s villages.
After forming a strategic alliance with the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement – North (SPLM-N) in February, the RSF has expanded its presence along the sprawling, porous border.
The SPLM-N and secessionist forces battled the army of Sudan. It has historically close ties to Juba and controls large areas of territory in the South Kordofan and Blue Nile regions of Sudan.
According to Edmund Yakani, a leader and commentator in South Sudan’s civil society, South Sudan’s relationship with the SPLM-N and RSF has grown increasingly dissatisfying for the army.
Yakani told Al Jazeera, “Sudan’s army is suspicious that Juba is supporting RSF in its military capability and political space.”
House of Cards
About 60% of South Sudan’s oil profits go to the multinational corporations that make it, according to a report from the International Crisis Group for 2021.
According to the report, the majority of the remaining 40% is used to pay off outstanding loans and support the country’s oppressive elites in the bureaucratic and bloated security system.
Salva Kiir, president of South Sudan, will most likely not be able to maintain his patronage network without a quick recovery in oil revenues.
Experts warned that his fragile government, which consists of a coalition of long-standing loyalists and coopted opponents, might collapse like a house of cards.
Al Jazeera emailed South Sudan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation written inquiries asking if the country had a backup plan in case oil exports stopped indefinitely. Prior to publication, the ministry did not respond.
Experts warned that oil is not an option for South Sudan.
Security personnel and civil servants already owed months of back pay, and they may rebel against Kiir and each other if they lack the will to uphold the tense peace agreement that ended South Sudan’s five-year civil war in 2018.
There is no backup plan for when the oil runs out, according to Matthew Benson, a scholar at the London School of Economics who studies Sudan and South Sudan.
Inflation would rise if oil production was to stop, which would only add to the millions of civilians’ daily struggles.
Nearly 80% of people who live below the poverty line are thought to be experiencing acute food shortages, according to the World Food Programme, while nearly 60% of the population is, according to the World Bank.
A predatory economy has been created as a result of the hardship and pervasive corruption, wherearmed groups set up checkpoints to defame citizens for bribes and taxes.
If oil prices go up, civil servants will likely be unable to cough up any more money.
Benson said, “I’m not sure people can be squeezed more than they already are.”
proxy conflict
Some activists and commentators also worry that Sudan’s army is purposefully obstructing any contact with the RSF and SPLM-N because of its intentional turning off of the oil.
According to Yakani, this speculation is causing some civilian resentment in South Sudan.
Meanwhile, some Sudanese army supporters argued that South Sudan should not benefit from oil if the RSF, which they view as a militia, has some support for it.
According to a report from Al Jazeera, both the RSF and the army have recruited South Sudanese mercenaries to fight for them.
Yakani told Al Jazeera, “The army wants Juba to completely distance itself from any form of aiding the RSF,” adding that this is the current problem for the government of Kiir.
“Most South Sudanese citizens, including myself, think that Sudan’s warring parties and their regional allies are using South Sudan as a proxy war,” he continued.
Sudan’s army also thinks the government of South Sudan is increasingly relying on regional supporters to support its own security.
According to Boswell, Sudan’s army leaders were spooked in particular when Uganda, which it views as supporting the RSF, sent troops to Kiir in March to bolster the country’s defenses.
Sudan’s army has also repeatedly accused the UAE of providing weapons to the RSF.
United Nations experts and Amnesty International have also made these allegations, but the UAE has repeatedly refuted them.
The UAE’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs previously told Al Jazeera in an email that the country had already made it clear that it was not providing any assistance or supplies to either of the two belligerent warring parties in Sudan.
Analysts speculate that Juba may request a sizable loan from the UAE in response to Sudan’s army’s ongoing conflict with the UAE if Sudan’s army does not immediately resume oil exports.
According to Boswell, “South Sudan’s army” has been concerned and closely monitoring whether the UAE might loan South Sudan a sizable sum of money.”
Source: Aljazeera
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