RSF military push for Kordofan leaves Sudan at risk of partition

The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) of Sudan are exerting great pressure to conquer Kordofan. The paramilitary force is seen in the nearby cities and towns of the vast central region, including Babnusa and El-Obeid, where they are accused of committing grave human rights violations during the conflict in Sudan.

The RSF is currently gaining momentum after defeating their Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) foes in El-Fasher, in the western region of Darfur, last month, causing a tidal wave of violence that resulted in the deaths of at least 1,500 people and forced thousands more to flee.

In West Kordofan’s Babnusa, a major transportation hub connecting various regions of the nation, SAF soldiers are still able to repel RSF fighters. However, the SAF will find it challenging to hold the city, and if the city does fall, the RSF will likely advance further along the el-Obeid, a crucial gateway to Khartoum, as well.

In March, the SAF appeared to be in the ascendancy during the more-than-two-year conflict, and the RSF were forced to leave Khartoum.

The SAF now faces a dangerous situation, and after completely losing Darfur with the fall of el-Fasher, it runs the risk of losing Kordofan as well.

According to Dallia Abdelmoniem, a political analyst from Sudan, “The RSF has momentum, which they will carry on with,” SPLM-N, an RSF ally, already has control over the Nuba Mountains region of South Kordofan.

Hemedti, who is the head of the RSF, referred to as Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, “he was never going to be satisfied with just controlling the Darfur region. He wanted the entire country,” she said.

Abdelmoniem believes that the balance of power is shifting because the SAF has been stretched and prevented from dependable arms procurement. The SAF is weaker unless they find equivalent, if not superior, weaponry to the RSF.

talks on a ceasefire

The so-called “Quad” – Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and the United States – are currently attempting to put an end to the fighting, so it is notable that the RSF advances have occurred despite these efforts.

Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the SAF’s head, rejected a ceasefire request from the Quad last Sunday, claiming that it was advantageous to the RSF. He also criticized Abu Dhabi’s continued opposition to Abu Dhabi’s involvement in the Quad, accusing it of supporting the RSF.

The RSF, for its part, made a seemingly unilateral three-month ceasefire announcement on Monday. The RSF has nevertheless continued to attack Babnusa in the wake of the announcement.

The recent escalation in fighting may be the result of the Quad mediation efforts, which have included a push from US President Donald Trump.

Kholood Khair, the founding director of Confluence Advisory, said the pressure on the SAF and RSF to secure a ceasefire from the Quad, including Egypt and Saudi Arabia, is “putting pressure on them to gain a territorial advantage as quickly as possible in case something changes during the mediation.” Each side will always make an effort to maximize its standing before the discussions begin.

Khair points out that both sides had been armed during the rainy season of the summer, when fighting was more difficult. The weapons are being “put to use” now that the weather has turned “dry,” especially given that El-Fasher’s RSF is strengthened by its victory.

Kordofan is a significant prize because of its strategic significance, especially if any ceasefire agreement freezes the regions that each side controls.

Due to its agricultural, livestock, and petroleum resources, Kordofan is important to maintain control, according to Retired Lieutenant Colonel Omar Arbab. The battle for Kordofan is not just territorial; it is about securing Sudan’s economic foundation.

Arbab added that the RSF’s push toward Babnusa serves as the link between Darfur and el-Obeid, which has a military justification. El-Obeid could be a threat if the RSF were to control it, and they will undoubtedly attempt to besiege it.

“They have been spending their money for weeks straight.” According to Khair, some of those troops will be moved to el-Obeid if they accept it. She warned that if the city were to collapse, there would be a significant political shockwave. It’s a significant economic gain, a regional capital, and a huge mercantile center. Additionally, it brings Khartoum’s RSF a few steps closer.

Potential division

Analysts worry that the conflict between Sudan’s political and ethnic landscape is severing as a result of Kordofan’s expansion.

Khair noted that western Sudan’s territorial division had been exacerbated by the fall of El-Fasher, adding that there were “dozens of armed groups” that each controlled their own fiefdoms, either affiliated with the SAF, the RSF, or independent.

Khair believes that identity is the real cause of Sudan’s collapse rather than territory. The SAF and the RSF have both ethnicized this conflict to allow them to mobilize their forces. Due to this, there are now communities that think the SAF, the RSF, or other groups serve their ethnic interests.

She claimed that this ethnic competition is now more important than military strategy in determining the course of the war. “As of right now, there is no singular Sudanese project, not intellectually, militarily, politically, or economically,” he said, citing fragmentation.

Abdelmoniem warns, however, that some SAF members may be open to fragmentation. There are undoubtedly those in the SAF who would be happy to see the country strewn apart so they can continue to rule over the Arab-Sudanese side, she said. She continued, referring to former rebel groups that were primarily based in Darfur and affiliated with the SAF, and that “they’re willing to forgo the alliance with the joint forces over it.”

Many Sudanese in Darfur are non-Arab, and RSF attacks have been one of their most recent targets.

Abdelmoniem contends that any plan that leaves Darfur cannot be sustained. They cannot win without the joint forces and other political-military organizations under their control. And how do you handle the criticism of the public when the Sudanese people view the SAF as the government’s “loser or dissolution”?

Arbab views things with more caution. He acknowledges that de facto breakage exists, but he thinks a formal division is unlikely. Because the organization of alliances on both sides requires a political project that covers the entire of Sudan, Arbab said, “division is not currently on the table.” Such a choice is extremely challenging due to the complexity of the actors’ backgrounds and social contexts.

Humanitarian consequences

Korodofan is now at risk of a humanitarian disaster of the same magnitude as Darfur as the front lines get bigger. Abdelmoniem’s warnings sounded directly in the same way before El-Fasher’s fall. She warned that “the atrocities committed will be on a different scale.” The crimes will be committed, the statement reads: “We might not receive the video uploads like we did before.”

Abdemoniem claimed that all armed actors have been encouraged by international inaction. The international community’s desire to release statements and refrain from doing much else is perpetuated by the statement, which states that “that sense of impunity persists and only grows.”

Arbab echoed that concern. El-Fasher received “elements of ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity,” he claimed. However, the dynamics of Kordofan differ. In Babnusa, the violence is distinct from Darfur’s ethnic massacres because the SAF and RSF forces share the same tribal and ethnic backgrounds. Retaliation killings, sieges, and mass displacement are all still a possibility.

Source: Aljazeera