Political infighting as Iran navigates sanctions, lingering threat of war

Tehran, Iran – Autorities in Iran are adopting a defiant posture in response to the persistent threat of a new war with Israel and the return of sanctions, which hide a struggle for control within the ruling class.

United Nations sanctions were reimposed this month by European powers through the “snapback” mechanism of the 2015 nuclear deal with world powers. Iran has indicated that it is not willing to compromise on its position following negotiations between the E3 countries of France, Germany, and the United Kingdom.

Iran considers it a capitulation to accept the current agreement proposed by the West, which includes a call for a total ban on Iranian nuclear enrichment.

The sanctions only add to Iran’s already struggling economy, which is now in decline with inflation of more than 40%.

And that, coupled with mounting public frustration, is forcing the government to find policies that will stave off criticism, while political infighting bubbles under the surface.

Defiance

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the leader of Iran, stated in a televised speech earlier this week that Tehran would not “submit to impositions” by Washington, and has remained defiant toward the United States and its allies.

He also personally criticized Donald Trump, who claimed that he had traveled to the Middle East this month to promote the Gaza ceasefire agreement with “a few empty words and buffoonery.” Trump said that the Gaza deal had come about partly because of Israel’s 12-day war with Iran, which began after surprise Israeli strikes in mid-June.

In the event of an attack on Israel or US interests, Iran’s top military commanders assert that they have recovered from the losses from the conflict. They are also prepared to launch ballistic missiles and other projectiles at them once more.

After his predecessor was killed by Israel, Mohammad Pakpour, who was appointed commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), predicted that “our next response will undoubtedly be stronger than the response to the 12-day war.”

To bolster this message and muster public support, Iran continues to emphasise nationalist sentiment – something the theocratic establishment hardly did before the war.

Authorities in the capital and throughout the nation continue to support statues and banners of Iranian kings and mythical figures from centuries before Islam in an effort to demonstrate that Iranians have fought back against armed foes for millennia.

A giant statue of Rostam, a legendary hero in Persian mythology, fighting an evil dragon, was unveiled this week in Isfahan’s Shahinshahr.

In addition, a municipality-backed organisation put huge screens on the sides of a truck moving through Tehran, depicting a Roman emperor being captured by a Persian emperor, alongside more modern imagery, including Iranian missiles being fired.

When the city’s heartbeat is filled with pride. In the streets, the phrase “knel before the Iranians” is displayed.

Iranians under strain

Iran suffers from worsening economic pain, despite its nationalist pride and military readiness.

After Khamenei refused to engage directly with Washington, the local currency is now close to an all-time low against the US dollar.

The reimposition of the aforementioned sanctions is rejected by Iran, along with China and Russia, who argue that the original sanctions have now expired under the terms of the 2015 nuclear agreement.

Iranians who are struggling as a result of rising prices and stagnant wages are not helped by the diplomatic discussion on the subject.

Local restrictions are in place as well, including those relating to GPS and internet access.

The Iranian government of moderate President Masoud Pezeshkian says it has not been able to lift the internet restrictions – despite a campaign promise that it would do so – because of the war with Israel. No date has been set for the removal of state restrictions on almost all of the world’s social media, messaging, and thousands of websites.

Major restrictions have been in place for more than 15 years, but they have only recently been expanded as part of a coordinated state effort.

There is infighting over the mandatory hijab, as well, with hardline factions calling for stricter enforcement of the dress code.

The government, which is dealing with a budget deficit, an energy crisis, and a number of other issues, has declared it is not funding the enforcement of the hijab, but local reports suggest that the so-called “morality police” vans are back in some cities in limited numbers.

Mahsa Amini’s death in morality police custody in September 2022 sparked monthslong nationwide protests that resulted in the deaths of dozens of security personnel and hundreds of protesters. Several people have since been executed by the state in relation to the protests.

Prior to that, nationwide protests had resulted from a overnight trip in petroleum prices in November 2019. During those protests, Iranian authorities imposed their first nearly total internet blackout, setting a precedent that Israel later used to impose a stricter version of its conflict with Israel, which eventually left the nation with 3% internet access.

Concerned about more protests, Iranian governments have since paid billions of dollars in subsidies to avoid an increase in fuel prices despite the runaway general inflation. In response to local media and opposition lawmakers who claimed a price increase was on the horizon, Pezeshkian’s administration once more denied its plans to raise the price of oil.

The president signed a bill into law ratifying Iran’s conditional accession to the UN Convention for the Suppression of the Financing of Terrorism (CFT) on Tuesday, helping the government come to a decision.

Subject to years of infighting between hardline and reformist camps in Iran, the legislation is among those required by the Paris-based intergovernmental Financial Action Task Force (FATF) to ensure compliance with international anti-money laundering and anti-terror financing laws. If the remaining bills are not passed, Iran will still face financial repression, according to those in favor, while supporters claim that if it adheres to the financial transparency laws, it will still be difficult to defraud its regional allies and avoid sanctions.

Rival political figures in the spotlight

Several high-profile Iranian figures have also been dominating the attention of the public, the media and rival factions in recent weeks as the country remains entangled in disputes between world powers.

The former president Hassan Rouhani and the supreme leader’s adviser Ali Shamkhani and others have been the two men’s top figures.

Shamkhani – who survived an Israeli attack during the June war – was secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council for nearly a decade until 2023, is a current member of a top military council, and runs a US-sanctioned shipping empire with his family that forms part of Iran’s ghost fleet of ships skirting oil embargos. Rouhani continues to be a powerful force despite not having a formal position.

This week, a one-year-old video of Shamkhani’s daughter’s wedding ceremony, in which she appears without a hijab, was leaked online.

Foreign-based media opposing the establishment said the private video highlights corruption and hypocrisy among Iranian officials. However, conservative local media claimed the move was carried out from abroad to stoke unrest, and observers have pointed out that the groom and close family members were the only men present, negating the need for the bride to wear a hijab.

Rouhani is also subject to a lot of local criticism, most notably because of the UN sanctions that were lifted in 2015 and the nuclear deal that was ratified during his presidency.

He has been criticized by hardline politicians for being a “traitor” and causing harm to the nation through his dealings with the West over the past two weeks.

Shamkhani also criticized Rouhani for allegedly knowing and lying about the IRGC’s shooting down of Flight PS752, and his former head of central bank for allegedly emptying the government’s vaults of gold coins to plug budget gaps while serving as president.

Earlier in October, a United Kingdom appeals court upheld an earlier ruling ordering the seizure of the landmark London headquarters of the National Iranian Oil Company, worth about 100 million pounds (over $130m), to help satisfy a $2.4bn arbitration awarded to an Emirati firm.

The United Arab Emirates company that Iran had a gas supply deal with in the country in 2001 is the inspiration for the decision. Iran was forced to pay significant damages as a result of the agreement, which was supported by Rouhani’s government but failed due to opposition from hardliners. Both sides continue to blame each other.

Rouhani, who was barred from state television by the hardliners, said that the war with Israel had now ended with ease in a second video released this week. Without giving specific laws a name, he said that any law that is opposed by 90% of society is “pointless” and was likely to suggest the hijab rule.

Also creating controversy this week in Iran was Major-General Yahya Rahim Safavi, a former IRGC chief and top military adviser to the supreme leader, who told state television he wishes for a “good martyrdom” like being killed by the US or Israel, as opposed to dying in a bed or a swimming pool.

Source: Aljazeera