Petrol Will Rise Above ₦1,000 If NNPCL, Dangote End Price War

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According to an economist, Paul Alaje, the ongoing price conflict between the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited and the Dangote Refinery will “erode the abnormal profit” enjoyed by investors.

On Tuesday on Channels Television’s Politics Today program, Alaje said, “You may want to call it a price war, but in economics, a duopoly fight is the best for the populace because they will force themselves to make neutral profits.”

He argued that because of the lack of a deal between NNPCL and Dangote Refinery, Nigerians should be happy. The economist argued that “more of the competition should continue,” noting that “be prepared to buy (petrol) at over 1.000 again if any of them fizzle out.

Read more: Rewane claims fuel prices will continue to decline.

On September 4, 2024, a man rides his motorcycle past a fuel station in Lagos while holding jerrycans. (FAWAZ OYEDEJI/AFP photo)

The $20 billion refinery Aliko Dangote’s richest man and industrialist, cut the ex-depot price of gasoline from 890 to 825 per litre on February 26, 2025.

Customers can purchase the premium commodity in Lagos at 870 per litre in the South-West, 880 in the North, and 890 in the South-South and South-East under the new arrangement. Diesel has recently been cheaper thanks to Daggett.

The NNPCL dropped its retail price in Lagos from 945 to 860, with similar price reduction effects apparent at NNPCL locations throughout the Federation.

Petrol — NNPCL trucks lining up at the Dangote Refinery to load gasoline. X/@nnpclimited

Alaje claimed that Nigerians will like the development. If the “cartel” agrees, he claims that Nigerians are in trouble, but the price war benefits the general public.

He claimed that a gasoline price drop of less than 700 per litre is sustainable.

However, the economist argued that NNPCL should produce locally rather than rely on imported goods to compete effectively with Dangote Refinery.

Nigeria, the most populous country in Africa, is dealing with energy issues because all of its state-owned refineries are shut down until 2024. The state-run NNPC, the main importer of the necessary commodities, heavily relied on imported refined petroleum products.

In the nation, fuel lines are frequent. Since President Bola Tinubu removed the subsidy in May 2023, driving costs have more than quadrupled, adding to the problems of the drivers who use gasoline to power their vehicles and generating sets, despite decades-long epileptic electricity shortages.