Peacemaker or peacebreaker? Why Kenya’s good neighbour reputation is marred

Politicians and military personnel sat down in a well-known event space in Nairobi’s central business district on a weekday to discuss forming a new government.

But instead of the red and black Kenyan flag, a Sudanese one adorned the hall. Everyone in the room was seated in opposition to Kenyan politicians and was associated with Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a paramilitary organization whose ongoing conflict with Sudan’s Armed Forces (SAF) has shattered that nation.

A massive outcry – from the Sudanese government and people as well as several foreign governments, including Turkiye and Saudi Arabia – has followed the RSF’s moves. The Kenyan government has also been criticized for its apparent support of the paramilitary, though outrage has also been expressed. The SAF-led government, currently based in Port Sudan, recalled its ambassador to Kenya in February. The SAF delivered no mince words when the RSF convened once more in Nairobi last week to sign a “transitional constitution.”

“These clear positions affirm the Kenyan Presidency’s irresponsible stance in embracing the genocidal RSF militia”, the SAF-led government said in a statement on Sunday, adding that Kenya was a “rogue state”.

The “Sudan Founding Charter,” which was signed by the RSF last month, effectively evoking a parallel government in RSF-held areas, including Khartoum and the western region of Darfur.

For analysts, the fact that such a divisive move was allowed in Nairobi means Kenya is not neutral.

This is a diplomatic own goal, according to Abdullahi Boru Halakhe, a policy expert from Kenya who also works for Refugees International, in football terms. The consequences of such a move on Kenya’s reputation are costly and the damage “will take a while to fix”, he added.

The President of the United States has only recently experienced the most recent diplomatic blight. Clashes with the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) over the hosting of rebel groups in Nairobi in late 2023 are still simmering. According to analysts, Ruto’s position in the two events represents a significant policy change for a nation that was once seen as a neutral regional leader during peace negotiations between conflicting Somalia and Sudan.

Sudan: A dividing line?

Fighting in Sudan first broke out in April 2023 after Mohamed Hamdan “Hemedti” Dagalo, the leader of the RSF, and General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the SAF chief, fell out. Prior to the coup that put an inclusive transitional government to an end, the two leaders had engaged in a power struggle that ended their alliance.

More than 60, 000 people have been killed in the war, and 11 million have been displaced. The UN accuses both sides of engaging in war crimes during the conflict. However, there are more grievous allegations against the RSF, whose fighters are mainly from Darfur’s nomadic “Arab” tribes. The RSF’s “horrific” campaign against the sedentary “non-Arab” Masalit people in West Darfur, according to the UN, could lead to “genocide” and “horrific” attacks. In January, the United States declared the RSF was committing a “genocide” and it was targeting people “on an ethnic basis”.

Egypt and the coalition of northeast African states that includes Kenya and Sudan have attempted to reach agreement on peace talks, but they have largely failed.

After the first RSF meeting in Nairobi in February, Kenya’s government defended itself against the backlash from Sudan and opposition politicians at home. Nairobi was actually playing a peacemaking role, according to Foreign Secretary Musalia Mudavadi in a statement.

“The tabling of a roadmap and proposed leadership by the RSF and Sudanese civilian groups in Nairobi is consistent with Kenya’s role in peace negotiations, which requires it to provide non-partisan platforms for conflict parties to seek resolutions”, Mudavadi said.

Some Sudanese were against, though. Although there were civilian groups at the RSF meetings, including some from Darfur, Sudanese political analyst Shaza El Mahdi said that because the SAF was not present, any peace negotiations would be null.

El Mahdi, who was contacted about Mudavadi’s statement, told Al Jazeera, “I don’t buy it at all.” “For the RSF, this meeting with civilians is more of a branding thing to wash their image. Because the RSF is laying the first stone in a line that will divide Darfur from the rest of the nation, it raises serious concerns for Sudanese people. It’s a divisive move”.

Additionally, according to the analyst who works for the Center for International Private Enterprise, the RSF likely only used Nairobi as a launchpad to establish some legitimacy. That move, though, has affected how Sudanese perceive the Kenyan government, she said.

I personally oppose the RSF and the SAF because both sides should be held accountable, according to El Mahdi. “But then many Sudanese people do prefer the SAF and see it as the better alternative, and now people believe that Kenya is supporting the RSF against Sudan”.

Some observers speculated that Nairobi’s apparent camaraderie with the RSF might be due to a “friendship” between Ruto and Hemedti.

In January 2024, Ruto hosted Hemedti, who was on a regional tour and had been welcomed also in Uganda and Ethiopia to the ire of the SAF government. After Ruto and Hemedti traveled to Juba, South Sudan, for a state visit in November, the conversation grew about a “bromance” between the two. On the presidential jet with Ruto was Hemedti’s brother and RSF Deputy Commander Abdulrahim Dagalo, who has been sanctioned by the US for his role in the war.

Others, however, pointed to a recent economic agreement between Kenya and the United Arab Emirates, whose government is said to support the RSF despite its denials. The deal, signed in January, will see the UAE double investments in Kenya. Nairobi is currently awaiting a $ 1.5 billion loan from the UAE to cover budget deficits brought on by borrowing during the previous administration.

“high-waist pants” for peacekeeping personnel

In December 2023 in a similar fashion to the Sudan debacle, Nairobi played host to rebel leaders from the DRC, causing a deep row between the two countries, even as the Kenyan government insisted it was trying to make peace.

Bertrand Bisimwa, the DRC’s former elections commission chief-turned-rebel, and Corneille Nangaa, the group’s leader, met with the UN’s alleged support for the M23, which the UN claimed is backed by Rwanda and has recently seized key eastern DRC cities. Their news came from the lobby of a Nairobi hotel.

That bothered political observers because of Bisimwa and because Kenyan soldiers led East African Community (EAC) peacekeeping forces at the time to impose a fragile ceasefire between the DRC army and a number of armed groups, including the M23.

Several problems had already arisen between Nairobi and Kinshasa over the M23. The Kenyan-led peacekeepers, who were first deployed in November 2022, were accused of “cohabiting” with the rebels for months by the DRC.

That’s because Kinshasa wanted EAC troops to face and stop the M23 – its biggest headache. The Kenya-led force, however, argued that it was only authorized to impose ceasefires and control the withdrawal of armed groups. Tensions grew. Protests and riots broke out in some parts of the DRC as enraged Congolese attacked UN and EAC peacekeepers for failing to put an end to the M23 violence. In December 2023, Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi sent the EAC forces packing.

The M23 head arrived in Nairobi in response to that circumstance. In angry statements after the meeting, Kinshasa ordered Ruto to arrest the two rebel leaders, but that request was bluntly refused.

In a release, Ruto said, “Kenya is a democracy.” “We cannot arrest anybody who has issued a statement. We arrest criminals, not people for making statements.

Now barely a year later, the M23 has gone on to seize the major eastern towns of Goma and Bukavu. According to the DRC government, at least 7, 000 people have died as a result of the conflict, which has caused hundreds of thousands of Congolese to flee.

“How can someone who is attempting to mediate peace also be accommodating people who have taken arms against the Congolese people”? According to Al Jazeera, Kabambale Musavuli, a US-based Center for Research on Congo-Kinshasa, an analyst and advocate for Congolese human rights.

“Regardless of what explanation Ruto may have given, I think he tried to enter the issues of the Congo. Would Kenya have responded the same way [that Ruto did] if a belligerent Kenyan citizen who has picked up guns had been permitted to hold a press conference there?”

Many Congolese, Musavuli continued, were already not fond of Ruto because of a “close friendship” with Rwandan President Paul Kagame and due to a perceived “condescending” attitude towards the country.

Ruto’s gaffe, which he made while campaigning in 2022, angered DRC diplomats and caused many Congolese to suffer. Speaking to a crowd of small-business owners, Ruto had promised more agricultural revenue because he planned to open avenues to sell livestock to the DRC, saying they “have a population of 90 million but don’t own any cows”. Ruto also referred to the Congolese as “wearing high-waist trousers,” a term used in music videos. He later apologised for the gaffe after Congolese politicians expressed anger.

We in the DRC were not supporting Ruto when the elections were taking place. We wanted an alternative because we already knew his attitude towards us”, Musavuli added.

From the guard to the side-taker?

Long before its present rifts with its neighbours, Kenya was once seen as a broker of peace in East Africa.

Conflicting factions in Somalia gathered in Nairobi in 2004 to reach a resolution that would create a federal parliament and end the bloody civil war that had been raging since the dictatorship’s overthrow in 1991, under the leadership of President Mwai Kibaki.

Just a year later, Kenya again led and played host to the Sudanese Comprehensive Peace Agreement, a peace framework that helped end the Sudanese civil conflict and eventually paved the way for the founding of the nation of South Sudan in 2011.

According to analysts, Kenya appears to be actively causing trouble while still under Ruto’s control as well as struggling to maintain that reputation. The seeming alliances with not one but two foreign armed factions since Ruto took office in 2022 have harmed Kenya’s former regional standing as a country with diplomatic might and weakened its reputation as an honest interlocutor, according to experts.

Kenya has experienced unprecedented tensions internally since its post-election crisis in 2007. Youth-led protests racked the country in June and July last year as thousands marched against Ruto’s plans for higher taxes. The Kenyan police shot at protesters as they marched in. At least 50 people were killed, hundreds injured and many others remain missing, according to the Kenya National Commission on Human Rights. Kenyans are still using the hashtag #RutoMustGo to urge Ruto to step down on social media.

“Sudan and the DRC both have exposed Kenya’s diplomatic Achilles heels”, Halakhe said. Kenya’s foreign policy, despite its internally conflicting politics, was not self-harming.

All that has changed, he added.

Source: Aljazeera