In the first national election since Shigeru Ishiba took office last year, Japan’s fragile minority government appears to be facing yet another setback in a crucial upper house vote this weekend.
On Sunday, the candidates for the remaining 248 seats in Japan’s Upper House of Parliament will be contested. To maintain its majority, Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its veteran junior coalition partner Komeito must win 50 of its 66 seats.
However, polls indicate the coalition will fall short in the event of a potential repeat of the disastrous election in which case the LDP-Komeito coalition lost its parliamentary majority in Japan’s more powerful lower house, the worst result since briefly losing control in 2009.
Japan has experienced almost complete post-war rule from the LDP.
Ishiba has faced a severe problem from inflation, with the price of rice, which has doubled since last year as a result of poor harvests and government policies, becoming a magnet for voter discontent.
To help Japan’s long-standing economic stagnation, opposition parties have promised tax cuts and welfare spending.
Locals are paying more for housing, but the weak Yen has drawn a sizable crowd of foreigners. Local discontent has been fueled by concerns about overtourism and a disregard for local customs, which Sanseito, an upstart populist party, has exploited.
The party gained popularity during the COVID-19 pandemic as it promoted conspiracy theories and far-right talking points when it was first introduced on YouTube in 2019 by streamer Kazuya Kyoumoto, politician Sohei Kamiya, and political analyst Yuuya Watase.
Sanseito has successfully mobilized against what it calls a “silent invasion” of immigrants in the years that have passed to appeal to a small but growing segment of Japan’s electorate with its “Japanese First” campaign and anti-immigration stance.
Japan’s population is currently only about 3 percent, but it has hired about a million foreigners over the past three years to fill positions left vacant by its aging population.
Sanseito, the party’s 47-year-old leader, said Kamiya’s party is pressuring it to address growing concerns about foreigners in Japan by dragging rhetoric from the political fringe into the mainstream.
“In the past, the left would have targeted anyone who raised immigration.” We are also losing support, Kamiya told the Reuters news agency this week.
Kamiya continued, “The LDP and Komeito can’t stay silent if they want to maintain their support.”
Each loss is crucial for Prime Minister Ishiba’s fragile minority government, which is increasingly dependent on opposition parties to maintain control, despite polls suggesting Sanseito may only hold 10 to 15 of the 125 seats in this election.
Ishiba will almost certainly try to expand his coalition or negotiate informal deals with opposition parties if the LDP’s seat share declines, as expected.
The LDP, which has a large part in its longevity to its broad appeal and centrist image, may find doing so with Sanseito problematic.
Tsuneo Watanabe, a senior fellow at the Tokyo-based Sasakawa Peace Foundation, told Reuters, “If the party]LDP] goes too far right, it loses the centrists.”
David Boling, director for Japan and Asian trade at political risk consultancy Eurasia Group, predicts that Ishiba may be forced out of office in the worst-case scenario for the LDP.
Boling said, “I think he would have to resign if he had an overwhelming loss.”
A decision like that would cause political unrest, especially as Japan is desperately trying to avoid Donald Trump’s proposed 25 percent tariffs before the US president touted a deadline of August 1.
Ishiba took a break from campaigning on Friday to urge Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Washington’s top tariff negotiator Ryosei Akazawa to continue discussions.
Bessent said that a good deal is more important than a rushed deal following his meeting with Ishiba.
Source: Aljazeera
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