Is this the end of Milorad Dodik’s political life?

Bosnian-Serb leader Milorad Dodik was given a year in prison by the State Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina on Wednesday, and he was prohibited from holding political office for six years. The court found Dodik guilty of carrying out actions in July of that year to obstruct the high representative in Bosnia, the top international peace envoy in the Balkan nation, from implementing his orders in July of that year.

The Dayton Peace Accords, which were signed in 1995 and put an end to Bosnia, are managed by the Office of the High Representative (OHR). A succession of European officials have ruled this office for almost 30 years. Christian Schmidt, a former German politician, is currently in charge of the OHR. Since Schmidt arrived in Bosnia in 2021, Dodik and him have been at odds with one another.

The court’s decision is a fascinating twist and indicates uncertainty ahead for both domestic and international observers. Bosnia experienced a series of constant and unrelenting crises as a result of Dodik’s election as Republika Srpska’s president in 2006. For the past 20 years, he has worked to empower himself and the political organization he currently serves as president while undermining and ruining the nation’s state-level institutions.

Dodik’s confrontation with the OHR may have appeared to be a lesser-than-expected political offence given his past history of preventing Bosnia’s progress, failing to comply with Bosnia’s Constitutional Court rulings, denigrating the victims of the genocide, and repeatedly insulting Bosniaks. The sentence, and particularly the six-year suspension of his political life, could very well signal the start of Dodik’s political collapse or a resumption of his efforts to bring Bosnia to its brink.

The Republika Srpska assembly rejected Schmidt’s authority and the court’s decision in a document released late on Wednesday that was released in response to the sentencing. Aleksandar Vucic, the president of Serbia, flew to Banja Luka the same day to meet with Dodik, who was ensnared in his own problems at home amid growing protests. Dodik’s attorney has indicated that he will contest the decision. In addition, the Republika Srpska assembly passed draft legislation to stop the country’s judicial and police from exercising their authority over this region of Bosnia.

There will be even more uncertainty. As Bosnia’s political stability is in doubt as the country waits for the outcome of the appeals process, which could affect its future in the weeks and months.

Dodik is a powerful force in Republika Srpska, as it is. Through his appointees in numerous institutions, he has control over his party, the Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD), and holds sway over the means of power both in the Republika Srpska and at the state level. His ability to cause a deeper crisis is real.

He has, on the other hand, overstayed his political welcome. Dodik has dominated Bosnia-Serb politics for almost 20 years. A whole generation of undergraduate students has never met any other political leader because of his dominance in politics and media. He has become synonymous with crises, conflicts, and absurd rhetoric for many Bosniacs.

Dodik’s political future depends on how Bosnia’s state institutions respond as well as, according to media reports, on the depth of his own support base, including Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, Prime Minister of Hungary Viktor Orban, and Croatian President Zoran Milanovic. In other words, what transpires in Bosnia depends on his future.

Dodik had been able to create and escalate crises for years in exchange for concessions. The pattern was repeated until then. In order to achieve stability, some Sarajevo politicians and numerous foreign officials agreed to give in to Dodik for years. Dodik grew in power, resources, and arrogance that was evident as a result.

It has been a long time coming for Bosnia’s state institutions to take a firm stand against Dodik and implement decisions. Dodik’s willingness to go further and the amount of support he actually commands may be a key indicator of this because it is new to him.

Three factors, including Vucic’s support, Dodik’s political future, and Bosnia’s State Court, are likely to influence the unfolding situation and, by extension, his political future in the weeks and months ahead.
The Bosnian Serb leader will be vulnerable, and that will set off a new standoff with the Bosnian state-level institutions if the Appeals Chamber rejects Dodik’s appeal and confirms the sentence, and especially the political ban. It will be crucial for state institutions to be able to carry out a court order.

Dodik would claim victory and feel encouraged if the court overturns the decision, which could be due to potential external pressure.

Second, a weak Dodik’s support will be gauged by his party’s and his means of influence. His support would be undermined by the court’s decisions, which would indicate that his support is growing. The Bosnian Serb leader still has devoted supporters and a significant hold over the Republica Srpska’s major institutions, as shown by the legislation passed by the country’s Republika Srpska&nbsp on Friday that bars the national police and judiciary from its territory. Dodik could use this legislation as a bargaining chip and raise money. This has already been done.

Third, as things are currently going, Vucic may be less disposed and have less resources to concentrate on stoking tension in Bosnia as a result of his concern with his own domestic protests in Serbia.

Additionally, Dodik’s political weakness may encourage the political ambitions of his protégés or close associates to step in his place, just like other long-running political leaders. If his party starts to compete, wouldn’t be surprising.

Source: Aljazeera