Iraqis hold little hope for change as they head to the polls

Polls have opened in Iraq for parliamentary elections that are marked by apathy and scepticism despite close geopolitical attention.

Polling started across the country at 7am (04:00 GMT) on Tuesday, in a vote that will be closely watched in Iran and the United States.

The sixth election since the US-led invasion toppled longtime ruler Saddam Hussein in 2003, voting takes place in a relatively stable country.

However, many Iraqis have lost hope that elections can bring meaningful change to their daily lives, feeling that the vote benefits only political elites and regional powers.

Nearly 21 million Iraqis are eligible to vote across 4,501 polling stations nationwide, reported the Iraqi News Agency (INA).

More than 7,750 candidates, nearly a third of them women, are running for 329 seats in parliament. Under the law, 25 percent of seats are reserved for women, while nine are allocated for religious minorities.

Under the electoral law that many believe favours larger parties, just 75 independent candidates are standing.

Observers fear that turnout might dip below the record low of 41 percent in 2021, reflecting voters’ apathy and scepticism in a country marked by entrenched leadership, allegations of mismanagement and endemic corruption.

The polls will close at 6pm (15:00 GMT), with preliminary results expected within 24 hours.

Familiar faces

By convention in post-invasion Iraq, a Shia Muslim holds the powerful post of prime minister and a Sunni that of parliament speaker, while the largely ceremonial presidency goes to a Kurd.

However, few new potential candidates have emerged recently, with the same veteran politicians at the forefront.

Current Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, elected in 2022 with the backing of pro-Iran parties, is expected to secure a sizeable bloc in parliament as he seeks a second term.

Other frontrunners include influential Shia figures, former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and Muslim scholar Ammar al-Hakim.

Sunni parties are running separately, with the former parliament speaker, Mohammed al-Halbousi, expected to do well.

The ballot is marked by the absence of influential Shia leader Muqtada al-Sadr, who has urged his followers to boycott the “flawed election”.

In 2021, al-Sadr secured the largest bloc before withdrawing from parliament following a dispute with Shia parties that refused to support his bid to form a government, and instead came together to form a larger alliance.

Balance

Throughout his time in office, al-Sudani has sought to balance Iraq’s relations with Tehran and Washington.

Even as its influence wanes, Iran hopes to preserve its power in Iraq – the only close ally that remained out of Israel’s crosshairs amid the war in Gaza.

By way of contrast, Lebanon and Yemen suffered heavy losses as Israel struck at armed groups that they host.

The US also holds significant sway in Iraq with forces deployed across the country.

Early last year, pro-Iran factions in Iraq, listed as terrorist groups by Washington, yielded to internal and US pressure and halted the targeting of these forces. Baghdad remains under pressure from the US to disarm the groups.