After India announced the day before, Pakistan threatened to suspend all bilateral agreements with India, including the 1972 Simla Agreement. In retaliation, Pakistan threatened to do so on Thursday in retaliation.
The Simla Agreement was a peace accord signed by the two countries a few months after Bangladesh became independent from Pakistan.
Pakistan’s top civil-military decision-making body, Pakistan’s National Security Committee (NSC), issued a warning to India that any disruption to its water supply would be regarded as “an act of war,” adding that it was ready to respond “with full force across the entire spectrum of national power.”
Shehbaz Sharif, the prime minister of Pakistan, and other government officials and commanders of its military forces, led the NSC meeting that took place on Thursday in Islamabad.
The NSC statement mirrored actions announced by India on Wednesday, and included the closure of the Wagah Border Post with “immediate effect”, the suspension and cancellation of SAARC visas for Indian nationals (excluding Sikh pilgrims), the designation of Indian defence advisors as personae non grata in Pakistan, a reduction in the staff of the Indian High Commission, the closure of Pakistani airspace to Indian airlines, and the suspension of all trade with India.
The actions come in response to India’s response to Tuesday’s tourist attack in Indian-administered Kashmir, which left at least 26 people dead.
The Indian government announced a number of measures following a cabinet meeting on Wednesday, including the suspension of the 65-year-old Indus Waters Treaty, a pact that allows both nations to irrigate their agricultural lands.
In a media conference, Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri also announced the closure of the border with Pakistan, slashed the number of Indian diplomatic staff in Pakistan, ordered Pakistani citizens under the SAARC scheme to leave the country within 48 hours, and expelled Pakistani military attaches posted in India. India has been mistakenly attributed this response as blaming Pakistan for the Kashmir attack.
Since 1947, when the two nations gained independence from British rule, each nation has a claim to the Himalayan territory in its entirety. Since independence, the nuclear-armed neighbours have fought four wars, three of them over Kashmir.
Ishaq Dar, the deputy prime minister of Pakistan, called the Indian actions “immature and hasty” in a television interview on Wednesday night.
India has not provided any proof that Pakistan was involved in the attack. They have not shown any maturity in their response. This approach is not at all serious. According to Dar, who also serves as deputy prime minister, “they immediately started creating hype.”
Defence Minister Khawaja Asif also rejected India’s implication of Pakistani involvement in the attack.
India’s claim that Pakistan is responsible for the Pahalgam incident is inappropriate. Asif said, “We strongly condemn terrorism, there should be no ambiguity.”
‘ Ready for Indian misadventure ‘
In line with the 2019 Balakot strikes, commentary in the Indian media and discussions among the political leadership have suggested starting a military assault on Pakistan following the Pahalgam attack.
India launched air strikes in Balakot, northern Pakistan, in February 2019 following an attack in Pulwama, Indian-administered Kashmir, which resulted in the deaths of more than 40 Indian soldiers. It called militant hideouts.
Pakistan said the strikes only hit an uninhabited forest and responded with its own air strikes near Indian military targets, causing no casualties.
Additionally, both sides used fighter jets, and an Indian aircraft was shot down during a dogfight. Abhinandan Varthaman, the airline’s pilot, was captured and released two days later.
Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh also hinted at a” strong response”, reiterating India’s” zero tolerance “policy on terrorism.
We will also reach out to those responsible for this incident. At the Marshal of the Air Force Arjan Singh Memorial Lecture in New Delhi on April 23, he said, “We will also reach out to those who have conspired to commit such nefarious acts on the soil of India.”
Analysts and security officials in Pakistan say they believe that Indian military action , could now be possible, but said the country was” ready for any Indian misadventure”.
We are keeping up a high level of vigilance and alertness, but unlike India, we don’t want to spread unnecessary gossip about our readiness, a security source told Al Jazeera on condition of anonymity, noting that he has not been given permission to speak on the subject.
India is mistaken if it believes there won’t be any tit for tat. However, we are both nuclear-armed countries, and Indian aggression could lead to an irresponsible situation. He continued, “Both of us should act with caution.”
The official also raised the possibility of India’s involvement in the attack, noting that it occurred close to 200 kilometers (124 miles) from the Line of Control, the de facto border between India and Pakistan, and highlighted the presence of more than 500 000 Indian security personnel in the Kashmir valley.
He also pointed to the recent visit to India by United States Vice President JD Vance, who arrived in the country on Monday with his wife and two children for a four-day visit, taking in a meeting with Prime Minister Modi.
How do you believe that JD Vance’s presence will benefit Pakistan in this attack, particularly? He “asked”. Could this attack lead to the liberation of Indian Kashmir? Why won’t Indian authorities take the time to examine the country? Do they ever accept the security issues they face?
‘ Fight-to-finish syndrome ‘
The two countries, which together have a population of more than 1.5 billion, have previously been at odds with one another due to previous conflicts.
Asfandyar Mir, a security analyst with a focus on South Asia, said as a result of the Indus Waters Treaty’s suspension, Pakistan is likely to reserve its military response in the event of an Indian action.
The Indus Basin is a lifeline for the populations of Pakistan and India, who rely on the river water flowing from the Himalayas for irrigation and agriculture.
However, Mir added that “potentially more visible” military action is becoming more and more likely for India, in line with what it might be in 2019.
He cited the outcry over the attack on Tuesday and the Indian media’s call for a swift response, saying: “India’s domestic mood is strongly geared toward a response. That said, India faces a more acute China challenge than in 2019, so it has to carefully factor that into its response and how an escalation may play out, “he told Al Jazeera.
One of Pakistan’s closest allies is China, India’s northern neighbor. In June 2020, China and India engaged in a minor conflict along their border.
On the other hand, Salman Bashir, former Pakistani envoy to New Delhi, told Al Jazeera he believes the decisions made by India’s Cabinet Committee on Security have been based on a” mistaken assumption “about Pakistan’s weakness.
These indicate a “fight-to-the-finish syndrome,” which is based on wishful thinking and naivete. But I anticipate a mature and appropriate response from Pakistan to the challenge posed by India, he added.
Bashir, who also served as Pakistan’s foreign secretary from 2008 to 2012, said the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) -led Indian government may have considered military action, but the scale of such moves, given the history between the two countries, presents a dilemma.
Pakistan will never accept this as it is, in any case. We need to anticipate more from the future. Options for diplomacy are rather slim. The former diplomat claimed that a back-channel contact might be effective, but he is unsure whether one exists.
‘ No lessons learned ‘
According to Mir, a security analyst for Washington, DC, Pakistan is more stable than in previous years and is more likely to respond violently to army chief Asim Munir, who has accused India of conducting “proxy operations” in Pakistan.
Pakistan has accused India of starting hostilities on its soil, most recently accusing it of being the mastermind of the separatists’ March march attack on the Jaffar Express.
The 36-hour standoff, in which at least 26 passengers were killed, was Pakistan’s first-ever train hijacking.
Mir claimed that the 2019 crisis has taught both sides nothing but constructive lessons.
The former Pakistani Army chief general Bajwa and India choosing to concentrate on their border with China and their goals to become a global power largely contributed to the relative calm we saw after the end of 2019. But careful observers knew the relationship was only deteriorating, “he said.
If Prime Minister Sharif makes an announcement to visit India, Bashir, the former envoy, said Pakistan might do so in a grand way.
“Gests like Shehbaz Sharif’s announcement of a visit to New Delhi are acceptable in situations where Pakistan-Indians are involved.” The pendulum has swung too far. He said, “We must take all necessary actions to control the situation.”
Source: Aljazeera
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