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How Trump’s position has changed on Iran, splitting MAGA base

How Trump’s position has changed on Iran, splitting MAGA base

Donald Trump, the head of the United States, said to reporters that he thought Iran was “very close” to developing nuclear weapons as he left the Group of Seven summit in Canada on Tuesday.

This contradicted US intelligence reports. Tulsi Gabbard, Trump’s director of national intelligence, unmistakably told US lawmakers that Iran was not pursuing nuclear weapons on March 25.

According to her, “The intelligence community continues to determine that Iran is not developing nuclear weapons, and that Supreme Leader [Ali] Khamenei has not authorized the nuclear weapons program he suspended in 2003,” she said, referring to a group of US spy agencies that collaborate to conduct these assessments.

Trump’s latest remarks also mark a shift from his position on Iran last month when he said the US and Iran were close to securing a deal on Iran’s nuclear programme.

Trump’s views on Iran’s nuclear capabilities and whether the US is ready to engage in its conflict with Israel have changed even through the course of the Iran-Israel conflict, which was in its seventh day on Thursday.

Iranian military and nuclear installations were attacked by Israel on Friday, but Trump administration officials later confirmed that the US was not involved.

Since then, however, Trump has indicated that the US might become involved in Israel’s conflict with Iran, leaving allies and adversaries guessing what the next action will be. Israel wants US assistance in particular in supplying “bunker buster” bombs that would allow its forces to elude the mountainous Fordow nuclear facility in northwest Iran.

Trump declined to specify whether the US would support the conflict on Wednesday.

“I may do it. I’m not sure if I do it. He told reporters outside the White House, “Nobody knows what I’m going to do”.

Later, Trump said Iranian officials wanted to visit Washington for talks. He claimed that although such discussions are “a little late,” “we may do that.”

Many in Trump’s MAGA base, which is named after his campaign slogan, “Make America Great Again,” are concerned about his dovish stance toward Iran. Those concerned supporters believe US involvement in a fresh war goes against Trump’s campaign promise of putting America First and of staying out of conflicts involing others.

[Al Jazeera]

Since resuming his presidency in January, how has Trump’s position changed:

February: Trump ‘ restores maximum pressure ‘ on Iran

Trump’s presidential memorandum on national security, which “requires absolute pressure” on Tehran, was released on February 4th, with the intention of “denying Iran all paths to a nuclear weapon” and “containing Iran’s malign influence abroad.

Trump made it clear that he was reluctant to use force, preferring to seek a diplomatic solution through negotiations.

While the memorandum lacked details on what “maximum pressure” would entail and hinted that measures could be tough, Trump also said he was “torn” and “unhappy” about signing it and added that he hoped “it’s not going to have to be used in any great measure at all”.

Trump claims that a nuclear deal is in the works with Iran on May 15.

Trump’s diplomatic stance appeared to be holding during his Gulf tour last month. Trump said the US had engaged in “very serious negotiations with Iran for long-term peace”. He added that Tehran and Washington “kind of” agreed on the nuclear deal’s terms.

“We’re on the verge of making a deal.” … There]are] two steps to doing this: There is a very, very nice step, and there is the violent step, but I don’t want to do it the second way”, he said.

Trump warns Iran about Houthi attacks on May 17.

Trump launched the attack on social media two days after making claims that he was close to reaching a nuclear deal with Iran. The hundreds of attacks being made by Houthi, the sinister mobsters and thugs based in Yemen, who are hated by the Yemeni people, all emanate from, and are created by, IRAN”, Trump wrote.

The Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen launched attacks on Israeli-linked shipping in the Red Sea and Israel itself over Israel’s ongoing conflict with Gaza in recent months.

Trump warns Netanyahu of an Iranian attack on May 28.

On May 28, Trump seemed to have reversed this stance again, however, when he said he had told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to hold off on any strike on Iran because it “would be inappropriate to do right now because we’re very close to a]diplomatic] solution]on Iran’s nuclear status]”.

June 13: Trump administration claims that the US isn’t involved in Iranian attacks.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in a statement that “Israel unilaterally attacked Iran tonight. We are not involved in strikes against Iran and our top priority is protecting American forces in the region”.

Rubio continued, “Let me be clear: Iran shouldn’t harm US personnel or interests.”

Trump calls for Iran’s surrender on June 17 and calls Khamenei an “easy target.”

On Tuesday, Trump’s anti-Iran rhetoric switched gears again. Unconventional SURRENDER is a phrase he made on his Truth Social platform about Iran!

He cited Khamenei as saying in a separate post that “we know where the so-called ” Supreme Leader ” is hiding.” He is an easy target, but is safe there – We are not going to take him out (kill! for the time being, at least not yet. However, we oppose firing missiles at American soldiers or civilians. Our patience is wearing thin. I appreciate you paying attention to this issue.

Trump stated to reporters that he preferred a ceasefire between Israel and Iran over a real solution to the Iran-related nuclear debate, which Tehran denies.

The White House released a statement saying Trump has “never wavered in his stance that Iran cannot be allowed to have a nuclear weapon”. Trump said Iran should not possess nuclear weapons from 2011 to Tuesday, according to the statement.

June 18: “I may do it.” I may not ‘

Trump said, “I may do it,” when questioned on Wednesday about potential US involvement in the Iran-Israel conflict. I’m not sure if I do it. I mean, nobody knows what I’m going to do”.

Iran’s response to this

Iran has argued that its nuclear program is entirely peaceful and is only intended for civilian purposes, citing a Khamenei religious edict that forbids the production of weapons because it is against Islamic law.

On Wednesday, Khamenei rejected Trump’s calls for surrender in his first televised message since Israel began its attacks on Iran. According to Khamenei, “any US military intervention will undoubtedly result in irreparable harm.”

Iran’s nuclear facilities have a 60% uranium enrichment rate, which is close to the 90 percent required to produce nuclear weapons.

However, like US intelligence reports, the United Nations nuclear watchdog also said it has found no evidence of Iranian nuclear weapons production. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) director general, Rafael Grossi, stated that “we did not have any proof of a systematic effort to move into nuclear weapons.”

In his first term, what position did Trump adopt regarding Iran and nuclear weapons?

Tensions were generally high between Iran and Trump during the US president’s first term:

After Trump’s withdrawal from the nuclear deal, tensions continue in 2018 and 2019.

Trump made the announcement in 2018 that the US had withdrawn from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, a 2015 nuclear agreement between Iran and a group of nations led by the US, in 2015. The group also consisted of the European Union, China, France, Germany, Russia and the United Kingdom.

In exchange for the complete lifting of sanctions, the agreement prohibited uranium enrichment at Fordow and limited nuclear technology’s peaceful development in Iran for energy production. For fifteen years, Iran agreed to abstain from any uranium enrichment or research at Fordow. It also agreed not to keep any nuclear material there but instead to “convert the Fordow facility into a nuclear, physics and technology centre”.

But since then, tensions between Iran and the US have grown.

A US contractor was killed and several US service members were hurt in a rocket attack on an Iraqi military base in December 2019, along with Iraqi military personnel. US officials blamed the Iran-backed Iraqi armed group Kataib Hezbollah for the attack.

The US military attacked locations in Iraq and Syria in response to Kataib Hezbollah’s attacks the same month.

Soleimani
Major General Hossein Salami, commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), in Tehran, Iran, on January 3, 2023 [File: Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters]

2020: The killing of Soleimani and its aftermath

In a drone strike in Baghdad on January 3, 2020, the US killed Qassem Soleimani, the leader of Iran’s elite Quds Force. The White House claimed that this action was taken to prevent Iranian attack plans in the future because Soleimani was accused of “actively developing plans to attack American diplomats and service members in Iraq and throughout the region.”

On January 9, 2020, Trump said Soleimani had been killed “because they were looking to blow up our embassy” in Baghdad.

If Iran attacked the US or its assets, the US also threatened to severely attack Iranian websites. 40, 000 to 50, 000 soldiers are stationed at 19 military installations in the Middle East, according to the US.

In March 2020, three soldiers belonging to a US-led coalition were killed in a rocket attack at the Taji military base housing US and coalition troops near Baghdad. Iran is now the subject of a new round of sanctions from the US.

Source: Aljazeera

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