Gatland’s Wales aim for Six Nations lift in France

Men’s Six Nations: France v Wales

Venue: Stade de France Date: Friday, 31 January Kick-off: 20: 15 GMT

Paris on a Friday night. Perhaps not how Wales, which was struggling, might have chosen to launch their Six Nations campaign, or how Warren Gatland might have wanted to celebrate his 150th game as the head of his adopted country.

The Welsh public has probably never had the same level of anticipation for the tournament. That includes the 1990s’ dark years.

With only two victories in the previous 16 games, most people are concerned about a second Wooden Spoon in a row.

Wales’ odds of winning the first game of Paris are 22-1, according to the bookmakers. They have a 80% chance of winning the Six Nations title, but a certain predictor only gives Gatland’s side a 0.2% chance of doing so.

When asked about the prospect of a victory in France, New Wales scrum consultant Adam Jones succinctly summarized it.

“We are going there and getting pumped,” Jones said of the rugby world and the entire country.

When Gatland becomes Wales’ head coach, he will have won 150 games. The country will be hoping that France’s best rugby ground is in good shape.

His total matches played totalling 149, with 76 victories, 71 victors, and two draws in Wales’ previous two terms.

The two spells are starkly contrasting. During his first 12-year tenure, Gatland recorded 70 wins in 125 games with 53 defeats and two draws, a success rate of 56%.

He took sabbaticals to help the British and Irish Lions win series victories against Australia in 2013 and draw against New Zealand four years later, while leading Wales to three Grand Slams and two World Cup semi-finals.

Wales briefly topped the list in August 2019, but in less than five years Gatland’s side has fallen from being the best in the world to being the worst in Wales.

With 12 successive Test losses, Gatland has presided over the most disappointing run in their 144-year international rugby history, making it their 12th successive defeat.

Six years ago, Wales almost immediately kicked off their Six Nations campaign against France in Paris, and they came back strong in the second half to win the tournament.

Gatland boasted afterwards that his side had forgotten how to lose, and it was tenth successive victory on top of a record-tying 14-game winning streak. They are currently unable to recall winning.

Gatland will hope to avoid a 13th Test loss in a row as he prepares for his 13th Six Nations against Wales.

Wales’ most recent international triumph came in October 2023 when Gatland’s side defeated Georgia in the final World Cup pool match in Nantes. Some 482 days or almost 16 months ago – whichever you prefer.

A dismal dozen Test defeats – 11 of those in a calendar year – have followed, with losses against Argentina, England, Ireland, France, Italy, Scotland and Fiji, a couple against South Africa and a hat-trick of failures against Australia.

Before this most recent campaign, Gatland had a rough appearance in the latter stages of 2024, but he has since been openly criticised.

Pre-tournament comments have included how he believes Wales can win the tournament, how he is building “a siege mentality” and how people should write his side off “at their peril”.

He has also attempted to put pressure on France by saying he hopes Wales “can catch them cold” and highlighting the pressure on Fabien Galthie, his opposite number, to comfortably defeat Wales.

In 2019, Gatland claimed that the Six Nations would be won if Wales defeated France, which is exactly what happened.

Six years ago, you believed those swaggering sentiments. He also had the resources to use words to support his actions.

You now wonder whether he really believes what the Gatland soundbites say, despite the fact that they seem to be true.

Whatever might occur over the next two months is causing rife speculation that this will be his final tournament. If there are no indications of improvement during the Six Nations, Gatland has accepted that change is inevitable.

The 61-year-old has questioned whether the pressure is necessary and whether he should simply retire to his New Zealand beach house to reflect on his memorable game victories.

As a review into the miserable autumn campaign rolled out earlier this season, Welsh Rugby Union (WRU) CEO Abi Tierney claimed Gatland’s position had been “on the line.”

After Wales finished the tournament at home to England in the middle of March, he was given permission to continue with another thorough analysis.

Six years ago, Wales won the tournament in Paris on the first day of February, which was the year’s final day of January.

Comparisons are challenging to make. The Welsh team featured experienced players who had performed for the British and Irish Lions in the Test.

Only four starters from Wales’ November defeat to South Africa have been selected, which has become a problem.

The addition of the experienced midfielders Nick Tompkins and Owen Watkin and the return of Liam Williams and Josh Adams have bolstered them.

In addition to Dewi Lake, the injured scrum-half Tomos Williams is back, and Morgan leads the side, but Wales claim Taulupe Faletau, the eighth-string player, is unfit for the French test.

France has won the previous six games in this conflict despite Wales’ previous success in Paris.

Former Wales defense coach Shaun Edwards is still in the ranks despite their unbeaten autumn performance, which included a victory over New Zealand.

Gael Fickou, Thibaud Flament, Charles Ollivon, and Damian Penuad are all injured, which could give Wales a shaky start.

There is still, though, the little matter of scrum-half Antoine Dupont. No headliner at Stade de France is more in demand than the France captain.

He is now regarded as the best player in the world after missing last year’s tournament and focusing on the Paris Olympics and being a member of France’s sevens squad. He now plays for the Six Nations.

He helped his team Toulouse win a Champions Cup and a French league title while orchestrating Les Bleus’ victory over the All Blacks, as well as admiring a gold medal a year later.

Dupont and Romain Ntamack have their first collegiate rematch in 17 months, and they are both playing at the test level.

Few people actually think Wales will prevail in France. But whatever happens in the Parisian late evening, Welsh rugby needs something, anything, from this tournament.

Just a glimmer of hope after the doom and gloom. A blueprint of what this Wales side represents, what they can become.

Yes, Wales has lost a key generation of players and some young talents, but the focus on the 2027 World Cup is getting old. They want progress. Now.

Gatland or his Wales national side are the only ones who can determine the state of the game in Wales. Nor should it.

The mismanagement of the game has been erased by the relative success of the Wales men’s squad in recent years.

The cash-strapped four Welsh professional sides are struggling, despite a few optimistic glimpses this season. Interest is generally waning, with crowds down, apart from at Cardiff.

Welsh rugby has peaks and troughs, exuberant highs and miserable lows, and little else in between. This current malaise is comparable to any of the previous “rock bottom” scenarios.