Crystal Palace or Liverpool? Inside Guehi’s intriguing summer

On Tuesday, Marc Guehi officially concludes his 12-month contract with Crystal Palace, and interest is growing.

A player of his standing, an England international, rarely ventures into such ambiguity.

There are, as you might expect, several teams eager to exploit the situation.

However, one club seems to be making strong front-and-center contenders.

Liverpool were one of the teams interested in signing the 24-year-old, according to a report from BBC Sport this month.

However, whether Liverpool takes steps to formalize their interest will depend on a number of factors.

The value of a player who can leave for nothing in the summer will depend on Palace.

Don’t be surprised if Liverpool doesn’t look into Guehi’s price in light of their 12-month interest-parking and free-transfer deal.

What, however, qualifies as a fair price? We should look back to last year for a hint, when Palace turned down numerous offers from Newcastle, the last of which was worth £65m.

Given the looming contract expiration, common sense predicts a lower fee for this summer. But how much lower?

What kind of offer would Palace make for their skipper, according to the palace’s press release.

They must balance all of this with the possibility of placing Guehi in charge of their defense next year, keeping them competitive in the Premier League.

However, there are indications that the south London club might be willing to accept a deal worth between £40 and £45 million.

However, whether Liverpool views things that way would be the issue.

In recent years, Liverpool has preferred a centre-back with a younger profile than the Palace defender.

Levi Colwill, who was 20 at the time, was a subject of interest in 2023. Leny Yoro, 18, who eventually joined Manchester United, was a summer signing for Liverpool. They looked into moving to Guehi this summer prior to their interest in Guehi, and they did.

Liverpool will be looking for what they believe to alter their approach in light of this.

There is reason to believe that the Merseysiders could attempt to break even in any formal bid for Guehi with the sale of centre-back Jarell Quansah to Bayer Leverkusen in a deal worth up to £35 million.

Perhaps they’d be more than willing to pay for Quansah with the money they get paid, but not significantly.

It strikes a delicate balance.

If Liverpool and Palace agree to pay a figure that the Londoners don’t view as “low-balling,” then a successful and friendly negotiation might emerge if Palace agree to pay Guehi at a price the Premier League champions find fair.

Guehi’s availability is a mystery even if Palace and Liverpool can agree a fee for him.

Last year, Slot’s side won the Premier League title thanks to the contributions of Virgil van Dijk and Ibrahima Konate, who established a formidable central defensive duo.

The interest in Guehi adds a further layer of intrigue because Konate’s future is uncertain and he is also in the final 12 months of his contract.

Guehi, if any, be interested in moving to Anfield? That is a no-brainer. One of the most exciting football projects in Europe is Liverpool. Their allure is further accentuated by their summer recruitment, which includes the £116 million purchase of Florian Wirtz.

However, the answer isn’t always a simple “yes” or “no.” The environment in which he resides must be pleasant for Guehi.

Before taking any serious thought to moving north, you can assume Guehi would want to know what his part in Slot’s plans are.

He serves as Palace’s captain on a regular basis. With Palace and the possibility of joining Liverpool or another leading European club on a free transfer next season, having his contract attracted interest from Uefa’s multi-club ownership investigation, which is pending.

As long as he plays, joining Liverpool also works.

You could say Guehi’s desire for more international opportunities will influence his final choice, especially in a World Cup year.

Guehi was establishing himself as one of England’s stars for Euro 2024 at this time last year. With less certainty about his international future, he can look forward 12 months.

Thomas Tuchel is in charge, Lee Carsley has returned to the Under-21s, and Sir Gareth Southgate has left.

Guehi’s place in Tuchel’s setup is ambiguous in some ways. You’d think a successful season at Liverpool and his debut in the Champions League would help him cement his place in England’s plans for the 2026 World Cup.

A move to Anfield has a good chance of gaining momentum if the cost is reasonable for all parties and the circumstances favorable for Guehi.

Of course, Palace will look for interest from other clubs to increase their selling power if there is no chance of keeping Guehi’s current contract.

Guehi is undoubtedly being watched by other parties. For instance, Arsenal has a strong interest in center-back.

With William Saliba and Gabriel holding the shirts in central defense, the Van Dijk-Konate conundrum would arguably be even more challenging at Emirates Stadium.

Arsenal initially inquired about Guehi moving, but they now turn their attention to Valencia’s Cristin Mosquera.

In the final moments of the January transfer window, Tottenham attempted and failed to sign Guehi, keeping an interest.

Chelsea looked into the possibility of re-uniting their former academy player with them at Stamford Bridge over the winter, even though they have a 20% sell-on clause for Guehi’s new transfer.

Newcastle, on the other hand, is still eager to try to close a deal that they agonized not to close last summer.