Chad’s presidency attacked: Coup attempt, Boko Haram or ‘drunk’ fighters?

After deadly gunfights&nbsp broke out on Wednesday night between security forces and more than a dozen armed fighters who blatantly stormed the presidential palace, N’Djamena, Chad’s capital city is still smart. At least 19 people were killed.

Most people went to work as usual on Thursday, but N’Djamena’s streets were greeted with more security precautions as usual. The city is already rife with soldiers. The city center had a number of tanks dotted around, and the palace complex’s roads were blocked.

The assault&nbsp, comes weeks after controversial parliamentary elections, in which opposition parties boycotted the vote. They accused President Mahamat Idriss Deby’s military-turned-civilian government of trying to legitimise his rule.

The attack also came after Chad’s unexpected December expulsion of hundreds of French soldiers. France, a former colonial power and a close ally, has operated military bases in the country for decades.

As government officials try to minimize the threat, conflicting information about who the assailants might be on Wednesday is circulating on social media. Here’s what we know:

What happened?

A group of 24 heavily armed men attacked the president’s office at around 8: 45pm (19: 45 GMT) on Wednesday, government spokesman and Foreign Minister Abderaman Koulamallah said, speaking on Chad state TV.

The men were armed with knives, not guns, he said. In the subsequent gunfight, at least 18 of the attackers were killed, and a member of the Chadian security force also perished. Three other security officials were injured, the minister added, two of them seriously.

Bloodied bodies were seen on the ground next to a white pickup truck in video footage of the shooting’s aftermath. The attackers were killed, according to Khalamallah, because they had a chance to get inside the presidency’s camp.

“I was impressed by the military deployment. We have a very good army, and the Chadians can sleep soundly. Our country is well guarded”, he said.

At the time of the attack, Deby was seated inside the presidential complex. Deby had previously met with Wang Yi, the country’s prime minister, during a state visit, at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Although it’s not yet known who the people involved with the attack are, at least six have been detained. The minister stated that investigations are ongoing.

Why is the country tense?

The landlocked Central African nation has long experienced coups d’etat, armed groups, and rebel movements. Despite having a large oil reserves, Chad ranks among Africa’s poorest countries due to its stagnant economy and harsh climate.

Ulf Laessing, head of the Sahel program at the German think tank Konrad Adenauer Stiftung (KAS), told Al Jazeera that those who take control frequently work to stifle rebellions by giving jobs to former rebels and members of the political opposition. “Chad’s budget is spent on patronage to secure government survival”, he said.

Deby, a military general, seized power in April 2021 after rebels killed the strongman president – his father, Idriss Deby Itno – on the battlefield. Before his death, the older Deby ruled Chad with an iron fist for 30 years.

Although the military government promised and delivered on elections, the younger Deby’s tenure has been characterised by turbulence. Many people believe he seized power unlawfully and merely extended the Deby dynasty, so he has struggled to win support from the populace. In response to the country’s widespread anti-France sentiments in the former West and Central African colonies, experts point to his government’s decision to oust French troops from its ranks in December.

In addition to killing 128 people and making numerous arrests, Deby’s government is accused of crackdowns: In October 2022, opposition parties and young people took to the streets to protest a delay in the scheduled elections.

Deby won more than 60% of the vote in May 2024, igniting opposition groups who called the exercise a fraud.

For the first time since 2015, the nation held contentious parliamentary elections in December. Despite opposition allegations of fraud and low turnout, the vote was hailed by government officials as a significant step toward the end of military rule. The vote was boycotted by a number of political parties.

What are the authorities saying and who attacked?

Who might have been responsible for Wednesday’s attack has several competing theories. Boko Haram is a feared armed group, with some blaming it, and others claiming a military coup.

Since 2013, Boko Haram fighters have been making incursions into the country from their base in the Lake Chad Basin, which Chad shares with Nigeria, Niger, and Cameroon.

Although the group was originally founded in Nigeria, porous borders allowed it to expand operations. In a string of attacks in N’Djamena in 2015, Boko Haram suicide bombers attacked police residences and markets. More than 50 people were killed, and more than 100 were injured.

The group’s involvement in Wednesday’s attack was likely, according to security sources who spoke to the AFP and Reuters news agencies.

“It wouldn’t be far-fetched for Boko Haram to try doing this, though this is a massive security lapse at the palace”, Beverly Ochieng, a Senegal-based security analyst at Control Risks, an intelligence firm, told Al Jazeera.

According to Deby, who was personally initiating the security operation in October, “They might want to retaliate against Operation Haskanite.” On October 28, more than 40 Chadian troops were attacked and killed in the Lake Chad Basin area, and hundreds of Boko Haram fighters are being tracked and neutralized.

However, government officials have downplayed the Boko Haram theory. According to spokesman Koulamallah, the attackers were “probably not” members of Boko Haram or members of an organized armed group, according to Koulamallah in an interview with Chad’s state broadcaster hours after the attack. Instead, he referred to them as drunken “Pieds Nickeles,” a French comic featuring hapless crooks.

However, it would be difficult for a random pair of crooks to take down N’Djamena’s seat of power. The city, on any day, is crawling with camouflage-wearing, gun-toting soldiers hanging from military trucks.

Could it be other armed groups?

In addition to the Front for Change and Concord in Chad (FACT), which are located close to the Libyan border, rebel fighters from several other armed groups threaten Chad’s stability.

The group, led by Mahamat Mahadi Ali, a steadfast rebel, aims to overthrow Deby’s government in Chad.

Deby, the late president, perished in 2021 from wounds sustained in a rebel-held assault on N’Djamena.

After the younger Deby took office, FACT vowed to resurrect. “Chad is not a monarchy”, the group said in a statement posted online. The statement continued, “Our country cannot have dynastic devolution of power,” with FACT threatening to remove the new leader.

On the other hand, Ochieng said, reports of a coup could also be credible.

Wednesday’s attacks could be an “inside job” with the aim of “assassinating President Deby” and taking over power, she added.

Coups are not uncommon in Chad. By absolving Hissene Habre, the late Deby seized control.

Under the leadership of Mahamat Nouri, thousands of rebel fighters from the UFD (UFDD) led an attack on N’Djamena in 2008 to take Deby to power, but they were repelled.

Did there become a vacuum after the French troop exit?

According to analysts, Chad is likely to face even more such attacks. Armed groups might attempt to exploit a security void as French troops continue to leave the nation.

It’s unknown when the Hungarians will arrive, despite the fact that Chad and Hungary signed a deal in October and plans to welcome 200 of their soldiers to support and train the local forces.

Chad is in a “fragile” state, Laessing said. Deby’s decision to ask the French to leave in December was a gamble. It gave him a popularity boost”, he said. “But obviously, the French military was the major regime protection he had, not just by their force presence, but also intelligence sharing”.

The former French colony hosted France’s last military bases in the Sahel, but at the end of November, ended defence and security agreements with Paris, calling them “obsolete”. After France split up with three other Sahelian nations, Mali, Burkinabe, and Niger, about 1, 000 French military personnel were stationed there and are currently reserving there.

Some officials may want to blame an external actor for sabotaging their efforts, according to Ochieng, who noted that Chad was downplaying a Boko Haram attack.

Source: Aljazeera