Centrist Trzaskowski leads first round in Poland’s tight presidential poll

In the first round of Poland’s presidential election, Karol Nawrocki, the candidate supported by the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS), is far ahead of Rafal Trzaskowski from Poland’s ruling centrist Civic Coalition (KO).

It sets up a fierce conflict to decide whether the country continues to support Donald Trump’s policies or moves more in line with his admirers.

According to the Ipsos exit poll, Trzaskowski, the liberal mayor of Warsaw, received 30.8 percent of the vote, ahead of Nawrocki, a conservative historian, who received 29.1 percent. The outcome would determine whether the two candidates would face off in a run-off vote on June 1.

“We are going to win,” the leader declares. Trzaskowski addressed supporters, “I promised it would be close, and it is close.” We need determination because there is still a lot of work to do.

Nawrocki also stated to his supporters that he was confident in winning the second round.

At a time when Poland, a key member of NATO and the European Union bordering war-torn Ukraine, and worries that the US’s commitment to European security might wane in the Trump era, the campaign has largely focused on foreign policy.

The fate of Poland will depend on the next two weeks, according to Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who has forged a pro-European path.

The president has the authority to veto laws in Poland. A second round victory for Trzaskowski would enable Tusk’s administration to start a plan that would include reversing PiS’s judicial reforms, which critics claim undermined the court’s independence.

However, the impasse that has existed since Tusk became prime minister in 2023 will continue if Nawrocki wins. Andrzej Duda, the party’s ally, has so far obstructed Tusk’s efforts.

Other candidates in the first round, including Slawomir Mentzen from the far-right Confederation Party, Szymon Holownia from the center-right Poland 2050, and Magdalena Biejat from the left, will be eliminated if the exit poll is confirmed.

Later on Sunday evening and early on Monday morning, two updated polls that take only partially official results will be released.

In contrast to PiS, which frequently clashed with Brussels over rule-of-law concerns, Trzaskowski has pledged to cement Poland’s position as a major player in Europe.