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Hurricane Milton timeline: Where and when will it make landfall in Florida?

Hurricane Milton, now an intense Category 5 storm, is moving towards Florida.

Forecasters anticipate it will weaken to Category 3 or 4 before making landfall along the state’s Central Gulf Coast, where it has the potential to become one of the most devastating storms on record.

The hurricane is expected to strike the densely populated Tampa Bay area with full force, less than two weeks after Hurricane Helene battered the state.

Here’s what we know about Hurricane Milton and its projected path:

What is Hurricane Milton?

Hurricane Milton is an intense tropical storm that has already affected the Yucatan Peninsula as it moved through the Gulf of Mexico.

In Yucatan, images showed coastal flooding, while strong winds brought down trees, causing power outages, but Governor Joaquin Diaz said that most of the reported damage had been minor.

Milton marks the ninth hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30. On average, the Atlantic basin experiences about seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes each year.

This is the second Category 5 hurricane of the season, following Hurricane Beryl, the first storm of the 2024 Atlantic season.

Fed by warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico, Milton became the third-fastest intensifying storm on record in the Atlantic Ocean, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said on Monday, as it surged from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane in less than 24 hours.

Its current speed is 161mph (260km/h).

Authorities use the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale to classify storms. The scale divides hurricanes into five categories based on their sustained wind speeds.

The highest is Category 5, which means a storm that has a sustained wind speed of 157mph (253km/h) or higher. Category 5 storms usually mean “catastrophic damage,” according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

When and where is Milton expected to hit?

In anticipation of the hurricane, Florida declared a state of emergency and issued evacuation orders, resulting in one of the largest evacuation efforts in the state’s history.

As of Tuesday, about 5. 9 million people were under mandatory or voluntary evacuation orders, including people in 11 Florida counties.

Although the storm was not expected to make direct landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula, its proximity prompted residents to take precautionary measures. Classes were suspended, some municipalities halted economic activities, and the National Guard mobilised support brigades, vehicles and rescue equipment. Preventive patrols were also carried out in vulnerable communities and neighbourhoods across Yucatan’s municipalities.

Here is how the storm has progressed – and the expected forecast:

Tuesday, 5:00 EDT (09:00 GMT)

On Tuesday morning, Hurricane Milton was across the northern coast of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula.

According to the NHC, while Milton was in Mexico “damaging hurricane-force winds and a life-threatening storm surge with destructive waves [were] expected. ”

The storm was moving at 12mph (19km/h) over the warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico and had maximum sustained winds of 155mph (250km/h), the NHC said.

Wednesday, 02:00 EDT (06:00 GMT)

On Wednesday morning, Milton will be in the northeast of the Yucatan Peninsula and northwest of Cuba.

Authorities in Cuba have announced that ocean surges and coastal flooding are expected to affect Havana on Wednesday, including the city’s iconic seafront boulevard.

Around this time the wind speed is projected to be 155mph (250km/h).

The storm’s intensity is projected to vary over the next 36 hours, eventually weakening slightly to a Category 3 or 4 hurricane before making landfall on Florida’s west coast.

Wednesday, 14:00 EDT (18:00 GMT)

Hurricane Milton will be nearing Florida’s Gulf Coast.

The Weather Prediction Center has warned that landfall could be accompanied by “widespread and numerous instances of flash flooding” with a high probability of “life-threatening and catastrophic flash flooding”.

The storm surge forecast, the rise in seawater level caused solely by a storm, for Tampa Bay predicts an increase of 10 to 15 feet of inundation for the area from Anclote River to Tampa Bay. Milton is expected to make landfall late on Wednesday night into early Thursday morning.

Thursday, 02:00 EDT (06:00 GMT)

Around this time, Milton is expected to make landfall sustaining winds of 133mph (215km/h), likely as a Category 4 storm.

The hurricane is expected to hit the west-central coast of Florida and move off the east coast of Florida over the Atlantic Ocean on Thursday.

Officials have warned that even a slight shift in the storm’s track could significantly alter the location of the most severe storm surge.

Thursday, 20:00 EDT (00:00 GMT)

According to the forecast at this time the hurricane will become a Category 1 storm with winds sustaining at 86mph (140km/h).

It will remain a hurricane as it crosses Florida. By that time, the storm will be positioned off the eastern coast of Florida.

Some of the areas that might be affected by rainfall are Tampa, Sarasota, Fort Myers and Orlando, with Tampa expected to be the most affected by it with 8 to 12 inches (200mm – 300mm) of rainwater.

How has the warm weather affected Milton?

Hurricanes are weather events that feed off the heat of tropical waters.

Warm seawater evaporates, lifting into the air. If warm winds blowing over the ocean collide, they yank the hot air from evaporated water upwards, creating a storm with low pressure in its centre. The Earth’s natural rotation makes the storm spin.

At higher heights, the vapour condenses in the form of warm rain, which further heats up the surrounding air. This sets in motion a cycle, with warm air and water sucked up by the storm, which keeps intensifying. As the pressure at the centre of the storm reduces, its speed picks up further. This process continues as long as the storm is over warm waters.

Since warm waters fuel the energy needed for hurricanes to strengthen, hotter seas result in more powerful hurricanes. The deeper the warm water extends under the ocean’s surface, the more energy is available for the hurricane to travel further and faster.

The entire Gulf of Mexico has been exceptionally warm this season, with some of the highest temperatures found where Milton rapidly intensified yesterday and near Florida’s western coast, where it is expected to make landfall.

Climate change has contributed to the rise of temperatures. In the last four decades, the ocean has absorbed about 90 percent of the heat from greenhouse gas emissions.

What is the latest on the ground?

Tampa police have referred to the hurricane as the “storm of the century”. Residents have begun evacuating the area, with President Biden stating that doing so is “a matter of life and death”.

The Division of Emergency Management is tracking which counties are under evacuation orders.

Governor Ron DeSantis announced that 5,000 National Guard members have been deployed, with an additional 3,000 ready to assist after the storm.

Hundreds of flights to and from Florida have been cancelled, according to FlightAware. In Orlando, for example, 781 flights scheduled for Wednesday were cancelled.

Hurricane Milton: What’s a Category 5 storm and why is it so dangerous?

EXPLAINER

Preparations and evacuations are under way on Florida’s west coast, where Category 5 Hurricane Milton with sustained wind speeds of 258km/h (160mph) is expected to make landfall over the next 24 hours.

However, Milton, which comes two weeks after Hurricane Helene, might weaken in intensity as it approaches landfall, forecast for Wednesday night or early Thursday.

The National Hurricane Center has said Milton presents an “extremely life-threatening situation” and is expected to bring damaging winds and torrential rainfall that will extend inland and outside the forecast cone.

Florida is still reeling from the devastation caused by Hurricane Helene on September 26. The Category 4 hurricane with a wind speed of about 225km/h (140mph) had caused damage in other southeastern states as well.

How are hurricanes categorised?

The National Hurricane Center has used the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale since 1973 when the scale was introduced to the general public.

It was developed by civil engineer Herbert Saffir and meteorologist Robert Simpson.

The scale rates hurricanes from Category 1 to Category 5, depending on their maximum sustained wind speed. This provides an estimate of potential property damage.

INTERACTIVE What is the Saffir-Simpson wind scale-OCT8-2024-1728462061

Category 1: 119-153km/h (74-95mph). These hurricanes are deemed very dangerous and are expected to cause some damage to power lines and poles.

Category 2: 154-177km/h (96-110mph). Such wind speeds are expected to cause extensive damage, causing some shallow-rooted trees to break off and block roads. A near-total power cut is expected from several days to weeks.

Category 3: 178-208km/h (111-129mph). Devastating damage is expected from this category. Trees can snap and uproot, and electricity and water supplies can be disrupted from several days to weeks after the hurricane passes.

Category 4: 209-251km/h (130-156mph). The National Weather Service (NWS) warns of catastrophic damage from Category 4 and 5 hurricanes. A Category 4 hurricane could lead to trees and power poles falling, as well as power outages for weeks or months.

Category 5: 252km/h and higher (157mph and higher). Roofs and walls of houses are likely to be damaged or collapse. A lasting power outage is expected.

After Category 5 Hurricane Wilma hit Florida, Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula in 2005, the Saffir-Simpson scale was criticised. Experts, including Massachusetts Institute of Technology climatologist Kerry Emanuel, who was quoted by LiveScience at the time, argued the scale considers only wind speed and does not account for the rainfall and rain-related damage a hurricane can cause.

Destroyed house boats in the aftermath of Hurricane Wilma, North Bay Village, Florida, Oct 24, 2005, AP Photo
Destroyed houses in the aftermath of Hurricane Wilma, North Bay Village, Florida, October 24, 2005 [AP Photo]

Other hurricane scales, such as the Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE) and Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), provide broader assessments by factoring in storm size, duration and overall energy, rather than just wind speed like the Saffir-Simpson scale.

How to prepare for a hurricane

INTERACTIVE How to prepare for a Hurricane-OCT8-2024 copy-1728462052

The NWS website lists a series of measures when a hurricane approaches. These include:

  • Prepare a hurricane emergency kit with items including water, food, flashlights, first aid kits, a whistle to call for help, a dust mask to filter contaminated air, materials for shelter such as plastic sheets and duct tape, local maps, and phones with chargers or backup batteries.
  • Strengthen your home and minimise damage by keeping trees around your house trimmed, shield your windows properly from dust, move loose outdoor furniture and items indoors, and secure all doors.
  • Fill bathtubs and sinks with water in case the water supply is disrupted. Make sure your vehicle’s fuel tank is full.
  • Know your zone and evacuation plan, and make sure not to travel too far, just away from the evacuation area. Additionally, communicate evacuation plans with someone outside the storm zone and have a plan for where your pets will go.
  • Stay updated about the hurricane through media, radio, and social media.
  • Review your insurance policies to ensure your house and personal property are adequately covered.
  • Keep your pets indoors and adequately facilitated.

UN calls for action as famine and disease stalk Sudan

United Nations agencies have warned that famine and disease threaten to cause “countless” deaths in war-torn Sudan unless emergency action is taken.

Malnourishment, crumbling healthcare facilities and a surge of cholera cases are blighting the population, officials from the World Health Organization (WHO) said on Tuesday as they underlined the “immense challenges” faced by aid workers after 18 months of war in the North African country.

“Malnourished children and mothers are dying due to lack of access to care, and cholera is spreading in many parts of the country,” said WHO’s regional director Hanan Balkhy at a media briefing in Cairo, the capital of neighbouring Egypt. “Without immediate intervention, famine and disease will claim countless more lives. ”

Floundering

The ongoing war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has raged since April 2023, killing 20,000 people and displacing more than 10 million – including 2. 4 million who have fled to other countries – according to UN estimates.

The international community has been floundering in its efforts to bring an end to the devastating conflict, which has been overshadowed by the wars in Ukraine and Gaza.

The United States announced on Tuesday that it had added Algoney Hamdan Dagalo Musa, the younger brother of RSF commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, widely known as Hemedti, to its sanctions list.

The US Department of Treasury accused Musa of leading RSF’s procurement of weapons and extending the country’s civil war.

However, Washington has so far rejected calls to sanction Hemedti directly over allegations that the RSF has committed human rights violations, including in the Darfur region.

The conflict has left more than 25 million people – over half the population of Sudan – in desperate need of food and healthcare.

Cholera appears to have surged over recent weeks, according to figures released by Sudan’s Ministry of Health on Monday. It reported 21,288 cases and 626 deaths since July, a significant uptick from the 15,577 cases and 506 deaths reported on September 26.

The ministry officially declared an outbreak of cholera in August, after a wave of cases was reported the previous month. The disease is spreading fast in areas devastated by heavy rainfall and floods, especially in the east of the country, where millions of displaced people are sheltering.

Most cases were reported in Kassala, where WHO, in collaboration with the Health Ministry and UNICEF, is carrying out a second round of an oral cholera vaccination campaign that kicked off last month.

Richard Brennan, WHO’s regional emergency director, said on Tuesday that the rise in cases was “concerning”, adding that it was “too early to determine the effectiveness of the vaccination campaign”.

Balkhy warned that Sudan’s health system is in “freefall”, with 75 percent of health facilities in the capital, Khartoum, now nonfunctional. She added that the situation in western Darfur states was worse.

Haiti’s gangs are recruiting child soldiers, rights group says

Haiti’s powerful armed groups are increasingly recruiting children into their ranks amid a growing humanitarian crisis, a global human rights watchdog has warned, with girls sexually abused and forced into domestic work.

Hundreds, if not thousands, of children “driven by hunger and poverty” have in recent months joined gangs and were forced to commit criminal acts ranging from extortion and looting to killing and kidnapping, Human Rights Watch (HRW) said in a report published on Wednesday.

Boys are often used as informants, trained to use weapons and ammunition, and deployed in clashes against the police, the report said.

One of the boys interviewed, 14-year-old Michel, said he had joined a gang when he was eight. “I didn’t have parents and lived on the street,” he told HRW.

“I usually ran errands or participated in roadblocks. There were four other kids in the group, 13 or 11 years old. ”

Haiti has been rocked by escalating violence since February when gangs launched attacks on prisons and other state institutions across the capital, Port-au-Prince. The unrest spread to other parts of the Caribbean nation and has displaced more than 700,000 people, according to the United Nations.

According to testimonies gathered by HRW, girls are raped and forced to cook and clean for gang members and often abandoned once they become pregnant.

“Gabriel, the gang leader of Brooklyn [in Cite Soleil], asks his henchmen to bring him a virgin girl every month. With the boss doing this, there’s no way to stop others who do the same,” a humanitarian worker revealed to the New York-based group.

‘State absent’

According to HRW, “severe hunger” was the main reason for the children joining the criminal groups.

“They said the state was absent, there were no police in their neighbourhoods, and they had no legal economic or social opportunities to earn a living, buy food, or access basic necessities,” the report said.

Haiti’s gangs have been expanding their influence in recent years while state institutions have been paralysed by a lack of funds and political crises. Gangs now control territory where 2. 7 million people live, including half a million children.

About a third of gang members are children, according to UN estimates. The criminal groups control nearly 80 percent of Port-au-Prince and are expanding into other areas, according to HRW.

The report said gangs are increasingly using popular social media apps to attract recruits. The leader of the Village de Dieu gang is a rapper and publishes music videos of his soldiers. HRW said he has a specialised unit to train children on handling weapons and setting up checkpoints.

The rights group said it interviewed 58 people, including children associated with criminal groups, humanitarian workers, diplomats and representatives of Haitian civil society and UN agencies in Port-au-Prince in July, and an additional 20 remotely.

The UN approved Haiti’s request for a multinational police mission to help the country’s police fight the gangs a year ago, but it has so far only been partially deployed.

Former Liverpool manager Klopp takes Red Bull football job

Former Liverpool manager Jurgen Klopp has a new role as head of football operations at Red Bull, which owns the Leipzig, Salzburg and New York clubs, the company said on Wednesday.

Klopp, who ended his successful nine-year stint with Liverpool at the end of last season, will be starting on January 1, 2025.

“After nearly 25 years on the sidelines, I couldn’t be more excited to be involved in a project like this,” said Klopp.

According to a statement released by the Austrian energy drinks brand on Wednesday, “Klopp will not interfere in the day-to-day business of the clubs, but rather take on a higher-level strategic position. ”

Klopp added: “I couldn’t be more excited. I see my role primarily as a mentor for the coaches and management of the Red Bull clubs. ”

Sky Germany reports Klopp’s contract includes an exit clause which allows him to take over as manager of the German national side should he be approached.

The 57-year-old joined Liverpool in October 2015 and won the Champions League, their first English League title since 1990, the Club World Cup, FA Cup, League Cup and Super Cup, as well as the Community Shield during his time in charge.