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President Donald Trump and his Republican allies have painted Chicago as the most dangerous city in the United States before expected immigration enforcement raids and as Trump has floated the idea of sending in the National Guard.

Trump called Chicago the “murder capital of the world!” in a Truth Social post on Tuesday.

Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem focused on raw homicide numbers on CBS’s Face the Nation show on August 31, saying, “For 13 consecutive years, Chicago had more murders than any other American city.”

James Lankford, a Republican senator from Oklahoma, used a similar statistic on NBC’s Meet the Press but swapped raw numbers for “murder rate”, making it inaccurate.

Meanwhile, Chicago’s Democratic defenders said Republicans overlook crime in red states.

Illinois Governor JB Pritzker, a Democrat and potential 2028 presidential candidate, said his state fared better than many others on violent crime. “Notice [Trump] never talks about where the most violent crime is occurring, which is in red states,” Pritzker said on August 31 on Face the Nation.

“Illinois is not even in the bottom half of states in terms of violent crime. But do you hear [Trump] talking about Florida, where he is now from? No, you don’t hear him talking about that or Texas. Their violent crime rates are much worse [than] in other places.”

It’s not unusual for politicians to choose numbers that favour their political message, but at a time when both sides are making seemingly opposing claims about Chicago’s crime statistics, what’s the truth?

Here are the facts to help you cut through the spin

Homicide rate vs raw numbers result in different metrics 

A single word – rate – makes a big difference in terms of accuracy when discussing Chicago or any city’s crime.

It is accurate to say Chicago has led the country’s most populous cities for sheer numbers of homicides for 13 years. Homicide refers to a person killing another person, including lawfully.

Chicago has reported the most homicides of all US cities every year since 2012, according to FBI data crunched by Jeff Asher, a crime data analyst for AH Datalytics. The last city to have a higher homicide count than Chicago was New York City in 2011, said John Roman, director of the University of Chicago’s Center on Public Safety and Justice.

But it is inaccurate that Chicago is the country’s leader according to the homicide rate, the measure that is preferred by many criminologists because it adjusts the count for population size, usually homicides per 100,000 people.

Chicago had 573 homicides in 2024, preliminary police data show. It also has about 2.7 million residents in the city itself, excluding its suburbs, making it the third most populous city in the US after New York and Los Angeles.

Chicago’s homicide rate is not the highest in the US or the world.

Other cities, including small cities in red states not in the national political spotlight, have violent crime problems too.

The Trace, a news website about guns, found that “half of all shootings between 2014 and 2023 occurred outside large cities, in small cities and towns of fewer than 1 million people.” The Trace used data from the Gun Violence Archive, which tracks gun injuries and deaths.

The Igarape Institute, a Brazilian nonprofit organisation, monitors homicide rates in the US and around the world. In its most recent data from 2023, more than 100 cities around the world had higher homicide rates than Chicago, including Memphis, Tennessee; New Orleans, Louisiana; St Louis, Missouri; Baltimore, Maryland; Cleveland, Ohio; Detroit, Michigan; and Washington, DC.

The data showed that cities including Duran and Manta in Ecuador; Nelson Mandela Bay in South Africa; Camacari in Brazil; and Cajeme and Tijuana in Mexico topped the list.

Although the number of murders in Chicago has been dropping since 2022, the city still has a violent crime problem. The Trump White House sent us about two dozen local news reports about Chicago carjackings, murders and burglaries.

Pritzker misleads in Illinois-Florida comparison

Democratic governors, including Pritzker and his California counterpart Gavin Newsom, have tried to turn the focus away from their major cities and towards their states’ overall crime rates. Through this broad lens, which includes rural areas and all violent crimes, the home turf appears safer.

“Low-crime rural areas may ‘water down’ the effects of high-crime urban locales such that the overall state rate is low despite significant variation,” said Jacinta M Gau, a University of Central Florida criminal justice professor.

Pritzker referred to a US News and World Report ranking of the 50 states for violent crime rates based on 2023 FBI data. From the lowest violent crime rates to the highest, Florida ranked 22nd, Illinois was 23rd and Texas was 34th.

So Pritzker’s statement was technically accurate because Illinois was not in the bottom half of states although Florida came in marginally better than Illinois.

Academics who study crime data warned of pitfalls. Victims underreport crime to police, and police agencies’ decisions about classifying crimes and whether to submit annual reports to the FBI can affect a state’s report.

“The unreliability of crime data makes it easy for the numbers to be run so that the result supports the narrative that is being pushed,” Gau said.

Illinois has had decades-long issues with reporting correct data to the FBI, Asher said. He said Illinois’s violent crime count does not fully report Chicago’s aggravated assaults. Florida, he added, has its own data reporting issues.

There are also complications to remember when comparing crime rates across cities or states.

One reason not to make city comparisons is that city boundaries are arbitrary.

“Some cities [like St Louis] incorporate only those parts of the metro [area] that are densest, which has the practical effect of including areas with high violence but excluding wealthier areas,” which are in St Louis County and St Charles County, Roman said. In other cities, those wealthier areas are within the city boundaries.

Comparing states avoids the city boundary issue. Plus, most criminal justice law is set at the state level.

Still, the challenges of crime data mean that politicians can selectively use or criticise the data to score political points.

“Unfortunately, this is often not clear to the average person, and so it can be extremely confusing and might seem like one politician is right and the other is wrong even when a discrepancy is more apples vs oranges than right vs wrong,” Gau said.

As Chinese leader Xi Jinping stood beside Russian President Vladimir Putin in Beijing last week, he claimed to be working towards a “true multilateralism” in which nations treat each other as equals and avoid “hegemonism and power politics” – a vocabulary the Chinese president returns to with regularity.

China is officially neutral in Russia’s war in Ukraine, and Xi has presented himself as a mediator, inviting Putin, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and United States President Donald Trump to Beijing in December for talks.

But China is not equidistant from the neighbours at war.

Xi’s “no limits” alliance with Putin, pronounced just before the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, puts him in the camp of an aggressor bent on “hegemonism”, experts tell Al Jazeera.

Three decades ago, however, China was Ukraine’s ally, not Russia’s.

When Ukraine agreed to give up its nuclear weapons in return for security guarantees from Russia in 1994, China lauded the move and, in December of that year, offered Kyiv nuclear security guarantees should it ever be attacked by a nuclear power.

In 2013, Ukraine and China signed a Treaty of Friendship undertaking that “none of the sides shall take any action that harms the sovereignty, security, or territorial integrity of the other side”.

Vita Golod, an expert on Chinese-Ukrainian relations at the University of North Carolina in Chapel Hill, said Beijing has betrayed both undertakings.

“These commitments have so far remained largely rhetorical and have not translated into concrete security guarantees for Ukraine,” she told Al Jazeera. “In 2024, Ukraine attempted to remind China of these assurances during its appeal at the United Nations, calling for special security guarantees from nuclear states.”

Instead, China helped Russia scupper condemnations of its invasion of Ukraine in the UN Security Council.

A 12-point position paper China published in February 2023 refused to condemn Russia’s war and echoed the Kremlin’s talking points, such as initiating peace talks without the precondition of a Russian withdrawal from Ukraine.

“Beijing lacks the credibility to act as an honest broker between Ukraine and Russia,” said Plamen Tonchev, a China expert at the Institute of International Economic Relations (IIER), an Athens-based think tank. “I don’t think that it acted as a guarantor. On the contrary, it ditched Ukraine.”

Ukraine’s ‘strategic scepticism’ on China

In June 2024, Ukraine attempted to bring countries to a peace conference hosted by Switzerland. China did not attend, and Ukraine accused it of pressing other Asian nations to abstain.

At a speech in Singapore, Zelenskyy lashed out at Russia for “using Chinese influence in the region, using Chinese diplomats also”, and doing “everything to disrupt the peace summit”.

Xi has met Putin, whom European leaders openly refer to as a war criminal, five times since the full-scale invasion began.

“Ukraine has moved from caution to open strategic scepticism,” said Velina Tchakarova, founder of Vienna-based forecaster For a Conscious Experience (FACE). “China is no longer seen as a potential mediator but as a strategic adversary masked in neutral rhetoric.

“Ukraine is therefore deepening its integration with NATO, aligning with the G7 reconstruction framework, and engaging in tech and defence cooperation with Indo-Pacific democracies as part of a broader anti-revisionist coalition.”

Material interests

China moved quickly from diplomatic support and political rehabilitation to material assistance.

As early as February 2023, then-US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Washington had “information that they’re considering providing lethal support”, in a reference to China.

“The US is in no position to tell China what to do,” responded Wang Wenbin, Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman.

Last April, Ukraine accused China of sending artillery shells and gunpowder to Russia and sanctioned three Chinese companies – an aeronautics firm and two industrial components companies.

The European Union followed. In May, it included Chinese firms in a 17th package of sanctions for supplying dual-use goods to Russia’s war machine.

China denied supplying deadly arms and said it strictly controlled the export of dual-use goods.

But a July investigative report by the Reuters news agency said Chinese firms were single-handedly sustaining Russian drone production by shipping engines mislabelled as “industrial refrigeration units” to Russia’s drone assembly plants.

Last month alone, Ukraine said it downed 6,173 drones launched by Russia.

China has also helped Russia financially by refusing to join the EU and the US in banning imports of Russian energy.

On the contrary, Putin and Xi signed an agreement last week to construct a new gas pipeline supplying China with as much as 50 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas a year, in addition to the 38bcm China receives from an existing pipeline. On August 29, China received its first shipment of liquefied natural gas from Russia’s Arctic LNG 2 project, a sanctioned liquefaction plant.

“Russia is cementing its political and economic dependence on China,” said Andriy Kovalenko, head of Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation. “China is … dictating cheap prices, terms, and deadlines, forcing Moscow to sign agreements that turn it into an appendage.”

That dependence may go beyond energy revenues and industrial production. Ukraine suspects China is spying on Russia’s behalf. Last September, Zelenskyy said Chinese satellites were photographing Ukrainian nuclear power plants, possibly in preparation for a Russian strike.

In July, the Security Service of Ukraine (SSU) arrested Chinese citizens after it allegedly found classified documents on their mobile phones with the specifications of Ukraine’s Neptune missile system. Ukraine used the Neptune to sink Russia’s Black Sea Fleet flagship, the Moskva, in 2022.

China’s debt to Ukraine

In addition to “Beijing’s pro-Russia neutrality”, as IIER’s Tonchev put it, China has overlooked a historic debt to Ukraine, said analysts.

“China owes Ukraine a lot. It would not now be a peer competitor to the US without significant transfers of technology from Ukraine,” said a European China expert on condition of anonymity.

In 1998, a Chinese national bought the hull of an unfinished Soviet aircraft carrier, the Varyag, from Ukraine and towed it to China, allegedly to convert it into a casino.

“The vessel was later refurbished, militarised, and launched as the Liaoning, laying the foundation for China’s modern aircraft carrier programme and broader naval modernisation,” said North Carolina University’s Golod.

“This early episode exemplified China’s exploitation of post-Soviet weakness to build its own military capabilities using Ukrainian technology,” said Tchakarova of FACE.

“It was the starting point in China’s strategy to build carrier battle groups and enhance the interoperability of its navy and air forces,” said Tonchev.

But another military technology target was of far greater interest.

In 2016, Beijing Skyrizon Aviation sought to acquire a controlling stake in Ukraine’s Motor Sich, one of the world’s top makers of engines for cargo aircraft and helicopters. Rich with Soviet aeronautics technology, the company was impoverished by the loss of its main client, Russia, which had waged war in Ukraine’s Donbas region. China saw Motor Sich as key to its rearmament.

But 2016 was a wake-up call for Europe, as Chinese appliance maker Midea acquired Kuka, Germany’s leading robotics company, and the China Ocean Shipping Company, a state-owned enterprise, bought the Piraeus Port Authority in Greece to facilitate Chinese exports to Europe.

China’s State Grid, another state behemoth, was found to have bought up a string of European electricity networks as the EU thought it was privatising them.

The capital spending had political implications. Eastern European countries like Hungary and Greece were breaking ranks with Europe on policy positions towards China.

“If we do not succeed … in developing a single strategy towards China, then China will succeed in dividing Europe,” German Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel said in September.

France, Germany and Italy requested a Europe-wide screening mechanism for foreign mergers and acquisitions, and the EU declared China a non-market economy.

In this political climate, and under US pressure, Ukraine stopped the sale of Motor Sich and nationalised the company. Beijing Skyrizon Aviation sued Ukraine for $4.5bn.

“Today … there is no active military or sensitive technological cooperation between Ukraine and China. The relationship has cooled significantly,” said Golod.

There were other interests.

“By 2021, China was the largest importer of Ukrainian barley and corn, accounting for over 30 percent of its corn imports. Ukrainian sunflower oil, iron ore, and titanium were crucial to China’s food security and industrial base,” said Tchakarova. All those goods now come from Russia.

China’s imports from Ukraine now amount to $4bn – a fraction of the $130bn it spends on Russian imports, according to the UN’s Comtrade database.

What, then, is China’s game in Ukraine? It appears to hold a balanced position. China helped discourage Putin from any use of nuclear weapons. It has not recognised the annexation of the four provinces Russia claims – Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson. It is interested in reconstruction. It is willing to host talks and possibly contribute troops to a peacekeeping force.

But, Tonchev said, self-interest drives some of these positions. China’s support of “territorial integrity” and the renunciation of separatism “suited both sides, with a view to Taiwan”, he said. And in discussions he has had with Chinese analysts, “China is unlikely to act as a donor … In fact, when I raise this question, there’s deafening silence.”

Ultimately, believed Tchakarova, China is strategically supporting Russia to drain Western power.

In Beijing, Putin and Xi openly supported a new world order. That, said Tchakarova, meant “replacing the Western-led, rules-based order with a multipolar system that tolerates spheres of influence and territorial revisionism”.

Who: South Africa vs Nigeria
What: CAF qualifiers for FIFA 2026 World Cup
Where: Free State Stadium in Bloemfontein, Free State province, South Africa
When: Tuesday at 6pm (16:00 GMT)

How to follow: We’ll have all the build-up on Al Jazeera Sport from 13:30 GMT in advance of our live text commentary stream.

Nigeria travel to South Africa looking to get their FIFA World Cup 2026 Confederation of African Football (CAF) qualifying chances back on track against the Group C leaders.

Nigeria, the three-time African champions, are currently third in the group, but they could move as high as second with a victory on Tuesday in Bloemfontein and keep alive their country’s qualifying hopes.

Making the Super Eagles’ task all the harder is that South Africa are unbeaten at home during the group phase with victories against Benin (2-1), Zimbabwe (3-1) and Lesotho (3-0).

Here is all to know about the high-stakes matchup between two of Africa’s most high-profile footballing nations:

Where do South Africa and Nigeria currently stand in Group C?

After seven matches, South Africa have opened up a wide points gap between themselves and the five other teams in the group:

1. South Africa: 16 points (+8 GD)
2. Benin: 11 points (0 GD)
3. Nigeria: 10 points (+2 GD)
4. Rwanda: 8 points (-1 GD)
5. Lesotho: 6 points (-4 GD)
6. Zimbabwe: 4 points (-5 GD)

How many African teams will qualify for the FIFA World Cup 2026?

African World Cup qualifying is arranged into nine groups of six nations.

The nine CAF group winners secure direct entry to the World Cup 2026 while the four best runners-up will participate in an intercontinental playoff for the possibility of securing a 10th spot at the tournament.

Of the nine African groups, only Morocco have already qualified for next year’s World Cup finals in North America.

CAF World Cup 2026 qualification dates:

• First round (November 15, 2023, to October 14): Group stage features 54 teams.
• Second round (November 10-18): Four best group runners-up play in semifinal-final format. Winners compete in interconfederation playoff for potential 10th African World Cup spot.

Could Nigeria still qualify for the FIFA World Cup 2026?

Nigeria could still reach the World Cup finals, but they will be dependent on other teams to finish top of their group.

They need to win against leaders South Africa (Matchday 8), then secure victories in their final two matches (Matchday 9 and 10) against Lesotho and Benin and hope South Africa lose one of their final two games to even have a mathematical chance of directly qualifying as the Group C winners.

If South Africa was to lose one of their final two matches and Nigeria wins both, the teams would be tied on 19 points at the end of the first round with the group winner being decided on goal difference. If they are tied on goal difference, then the two teams’ head-to-head record would be a factor in deciding the group winner.

If Nigeria finished second in Group C, they could potentially qualify as one of the four best runners-up for the intercontinental playoff. If they won the playoff, they would be admitted to the World Cup finals as the 10th African team.

Team news: South Africa

Head coach Hugo Broos will be without his first team defenders Nyiko Mobbie and Thabo Brendon Moloisane after both were injured against Lesotho on Friday. Kaizer Chiefs’ Thabiso Monyane has been called up as a possible replacement for Mobbie against Nigeria.

Burnley forward Lyle Foster, who scored and assisted in the 3-0 home win over Lesotho, is again expected to lead the line against Nigeria.

Team news: Nigeria

Head coach Eric Chelle will be without his talismanic striker Victor Osimhen, who was ruled out of the South Africa fixture after suffering a chin bruise during a 1-0 win over Rwanda on Friday.

Osimhen, who plays for the Turkish side Galatasaray, was considered the biggest goal threat for the Super Eagles, and his absence creates a selection dilemma for Chelle, who is tipped to go with Tolu Arokodare to lead the line, although Cyriel Dessers and Samuel Chukwueze would also be in contention.

In Osimhen’s absence, Moses Simon, Ademola Lookman and Alex Iwobi could all be deployed further forward to add attacking punch to the lineup.

When did South Africa last qualify for the FIFA World Cup finals?

South Africa have appeared in the FIFA World Cup finals on three occasions: 1998, 2002 and 2010.

The last time the Bafana Bafana successfully qualified for the World Cup through the CAF qualifiers was in 2002. In 2010, they were awarded automatic entry as the tournament hosts.

How many FIFA World Cup finals have Nigeria reached?

Nigeria have been to six FIFA World Cup finals but missed out on the most recent tournament in Qatar in 2022.

When was the last time the two sides met in South Africa?

The last time South Africa and Nigeria met in Bloemfontein was during a competitive fixture at the 2019 AFCON qualifiers with the Super Eagles winning the away fixture 2-1.

Possible starting lineups:

South Africa: Williams (goalkeeper); Mdunyelwa, Ndamane, Monyane, Modiba; Mokoena, Mbatha; Nkota, Mbule, Appollis; Foster

Nigeria: Nwabali (goalkeeper); Aina, Fredrick, Bassey, Onyemaechi; Onyedika, Ndidi, Iwobi; Simon; Lookman, Arokodare

Head-to-head

South Africa and Nigeria have played 13 times since 2004.

Nigeria have won six times while South Africa have only one victory.

The sides have played out six draws.

Last five matches:

South Africa

W-W-W-W-W (all competitions, last result on the right)

Nigeria