Category World News

Europe’s imports of weapons made by the United States have skyrocketed in the past five years, raising serious questions about whether the continent can achieve its vaunted goal of defence autonomy.

New research released on Monday by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), a leading defence and armaments think tank, shows Europe increased its imports of weapons two-and-a-half times over in the past five years compared with the previous five years.

Two-thirds of those imports came from the United States.

Europe’s ability to build its own weapons will materially affect how well it can defend Ukraine after a US arms cut-off, Matthew George, director of the SIPRI Arms Transfers Programme, told Al Jazeera.

“On one side, you have states increasing arms to counter the ‘ Russian threat ‘ but on the other, states will need to figure how they rearm and build up while also transferring stocks to Ukraine”, he said.

Most European Union members did not begin boosting their domestic weapons production until last year, the third year of Russia’s full-scale war in Ukraine.

“The West wasted these three years and didn’t prepare itself for this protracted war or any kind of horizontal escalations”, Oleksandr Danylyuk, a land warfare expert for the International Institute for Strategic Studies, told Al Jazeera.

“We have an escalation in terms of increasing numbers of Russian troops and bringing North Koreans into the war. The West hasn’t been prepared, unfortunately, but better late than never”.

Some observers are optimistic Europe will turn itself around.

“There’s actually a slight advantage here for Europe”, retired US Colonel Seth Krummrich, who currently serves as vice president for Global Guardian, a security consultant, told Al Jazeera.

“The days of World War II mass armour attacks are basically going away in this new AI-drone-driven warfare in that dirt laboratory that is Ukraine”.

Swarms of drones would be more effective than heavy armour, he suggested.

“I see an incredible opportunity for Europe to actually do future investment in what the next phase of war looks like, and there’s enough smart thinkers there that they can nail it right out of the gates”, Krummrich said.

Ukraine seems to be well ahead on this path.

Last year, the government in Kyiv set itself a goal to produce a million first-person view drones.

By October, it said it had received 1.3 million from Ukrainian suppliers and expected the figure to rise to 1.6 million by the end of December.

SIPRI’s research also showed that in the past five years, Ukraine became the world’s biggest arms importer, absorbing 8.8 percent of global transfers – a fact at odds with its goal of greater autonomy.

“I think that things cannot truly be different right now. We need lots of weapons”, Ukrainian parliamentarian Inna Sovsun, who has knowledge of defence matters, told Al Jazeera.

“We are fighting the second biggest army in the world, and the conflict is immense”, she said.

But she also pointed out that Ukraine’s defence industrial base had gone from a turnover of 1 billion euros ($1.08bn) when the autonomy policy was announced in December 2023 to 20 billion euros ($21.7bn) today, according to information from the Ministry of Defence.

“According to recent estimates by the Ministry of Defence, around 40 percent of weapons we are using now are being produced in Ukraine”, Sovsun said.

The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington, DC-based think tank, estimated that another 30 percent of Ukraine’s weapons were coming from the US and 30 percent from the EU and other allies.

European defence a market winner, Russia a loser

Europe in theory could turbocharge a similar build-up of its own industrial base.

According to SIPRI’s findings, even though the US remained the world’s top arms exporter, claiming 43 percent of the market, Western European firms claimed 30 percent.

France, Italy, Spain, Sweden and Norway all increased their share of the global market in the 2020-2024 period, SIPRI showed. Poland’s share increased 40 times over.

The EU on Thursday announced it would authorise up to 800 billion euros ($868bn) in new debt for weapons procurement with $158bn earmarked to reward joint procurement from European firms.

Germany alone was mulling a 400-billion-euro ($434bn) defence spending boost.

“European defence has emerged as one of the biggest winners in global markets this year”, The Wall Street Journal wrote on Sunday.

Some of the largest European firms ‘ stocks have risen 67 percent or more, it said, beating market indices.

Russia, in contrast, lost two-thirds of its armaments export market over the past five years, including the three years in which its weapons have been on display in the war on Ukraine.

“The decline in Russia’s arms exports started before its full-scale invasion of Ukraine”, George said. “This was largely as a result of a decrease in orders from China and India”.

“For instance, India is shifting its arms supply relations towards Western suppliers, most notably France, Israel and the US. And despite recent public declarations from the two sides that relations between India and Russia remain friendly, the shift is also visible in India’s new and planned orders for major arms, most of which will come from Western suppliers”.

In China’s case, “its increasing ability to design and produce its own major arms means that it is far less reliant on arms imports than it was previously”, George said.

Krummrich was less charitable.

“Anyone out there with a cheque book, especially if it’s a limited budget, … they’re going to see what works and doesn’t work”, he said. “When they saw the Javelins blowing the]Russian] T-72 tank turrets 60ft]18 metres] into the air and stopping the entire first]invasion], … the best Russian forces destroyed in place, … no one’s going to buy that”.

While Europe is set to boost domestic production, it also has glaring weaknesses.

The government of Syria says it has ended an operation in the coastal governorates of Latakia and Tartous after four days of fighting between security forces and pro-Assad armed fighters.

The unrest came only three months after the fall of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad in an offensive by opposition fighters.

Reports from the Latakia region told of killings, kidnappings, theft, harassment and even public murders.

So, what happened and who did this? Here’s what we know about the violence:

What’s happening in Syria?

On March 6, government forces began deploying to the coastal cities of Syria, including Latakia, Banias, Tartous and Jableh to fight what they dubbed “regime remnants”.

The “remnants” are pro-Assad regime fighters who have announced their opposition to the new government.

The Alawite religious sect, from which Bashar al-Assad hails, is concentrated in these cities.

How did it start?

On March 6, pro-Assad gunmen ambushed military personnel in and around Latakia in the northwest, killing at least 16 members of the security forces and the Ministry of Defence.

According to state media, the March 6 ambushes were not the first, with several past attacks on government forces since al-Assad fell.

How many people have been killed or injured?

Numbers are still emerging, but here’s what we know.

According to a March 9 report by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), at least 1, 311 people have been killed as of Saturday evening – some 830 were civilians, 230 security personnel from various branches, and about 250 armed fighters.

Al Jazeera has not been able to independently verify SOHR’s numbers.

Why this area in particular?

The Latakia-Tartous axis lies along Syria’s Mediterranean coast, with Banias and Jableh lying between them.

These two Alawi-majority governorates have long been considered al-Assad strongholds, with the family’s hometown, al-Qerdaha, lying east of Latakia.

When al-Assad fell, observers feared there would be revenge attacks against the Alawite community.

This may be why “regime remnants” chose to attack there – possibly hoping to inflame sectarian tensions.

Banias also hosts Syria’s largest oil refinery. Armed fighters tried to attack the refinery, security forces said, but were repelled.

Who’s fighting?

State security troops confronted armed groups led by former officers in al-Assad’s army.

There are also unidentified groups who went to the coast to “avenge” the ambushed security forces, an unidentified security official told Syria’s state news agency.

The presence of these individuals, the official said, had “led to some individual violations and we are working on stop them”.

Alawite community members said armed groups have been harassing and kidnapping Alawite civilians.

The Syrian government estimates there are 5, 000 armed individuals in the coastal area.

Who are these ‘ regime remnants’?

Videos on social media since February show former al-Assad army officer Muqdad Fteiha declaring the formation of a group to counter “HTS violations” in the coastal region.

Fleiha, who was in al-Assad’s Republican Guard, claims in his message that the Alawite community is mistreated.

Other statements on social media, attributed to former al-Assad army Brigadier General Ghiath Suleiman Dalla, declared the formation of a “Military Council for the Liberation of Syria” to “expel all occupying terrorist forces” and “dismantle the repressive sectarian security apparatus”.

What did Syria’s government say?

The escalating violence presented a huge challenge for Syria’s interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa.

On Sunday, al-Sharaa announced two new committees to deal with the crisis.

One is an independent committee of judges and lawyers to investigate the March 6 attacks and the violence that ensued and hold those responsible accountable, in pursuit of “higher national interest and civil peace”.

The second is a “Supreme Committee for Civil Peace”, tasked with engaging with the residents of the affected areas and safeguarding their security.

Earlier on Sunday, he spoke at a Damascus mosque, acknowledging the severity of the crisis and calling for national unity.

On Friday, March 7, he reaffirmed in a televised address his commitment to stability, and promised to pursue regime loyalists responsible for crimes and to consolidate state control over weapons.

How are civilians doing in these areas?

People are scared, panic has taken over the coastal regions.

“I don’t ever go outside and I don’t even open the windows… There is no security here. There is no security for Alawis”, a resident of Latakia who chose to remain anonymous, told Al Jazeera.

Those who remain speak of living in terror, fearing that armed fighters will attack them in their homes.

Syria’s government has ended a security operation in the country’s western coastal region, home to loyalists of former leader Bashar al-Assad, the Ministry of Defence in Damascus reported.

Spokesperson Hassan Abdul Ghani made the announcement on Monday, saying in a statement on X that security threats had been neutralised in Latakia and Tartous provinces. Thousands, including many civilians, are reported to have been killed in days of deadly violence that prompted international concern.

“Having achieved]the neutralisation of the security threats] we announce the end of the military operation”, Ghani said. “We were able … to absorb the attacks of the remnants of the toppled regime and its officers” and push them from “vital” locations.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said on Monday that nearly 1, 500 people had been killed in the violence since Thursday.

The majority, the war monitor reported, were civilians killed by security forces and allied groups in the heartland of the Alawite minority, to which deposed President Bashar al-Assad belongs. Al Jazeera has not verified the report.

Syria’s interim leader President Ahmed al-Sharaa of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) pledged on Sunday to hunt down the perpetrators of the violent clashes and said he would hold to account anyone who overstepped the new rulers ‘ authority.

Al-Sharaa’s office also said it was forming an independent committee to investigate the clashes and killings carried out by both sides.

Abdul Ghani added on Monday that the security forces would cooperate with the investigation committee, offering full access to uncover the circumstances of the events, verify the facts and ensure justice for the wronged.

“We were able to absorb the attacks from the remnants of the former regime and its officers. We shattered their element of surprise and managed to push them away from vital centres, securing most of the main roads”, he said.

Rising instability

“We are paving the way for life to return to normal and for the consolidation of security and stability”, Abdul Ghani said, adding that plans were in place to continue combating the remnants of the former government and eliminate any future threats.

However, following relative calm in the weeks following al-Assad’s fall in December, instability and violence are starting to grow in Syria.

Security forces reported that they had repelled an attack on a security checkpoint in the capital, Damascus, overnight.

Al Jazeera’s Resul Serdar, reporting from the capital, said two attackers, who were trying to target a government building, were arrested. Other gunmen managed to escape, the security forces told him.

“It’s still not clear if they are also part of the remnants of the old regime, or a separate group who wanted to attack”, Serdar&nbsp, said.

“It has been an intense week here in the heart of Damascus”.

The fighting on the Mediterranean coast began last week when pro-Assad forces coordinated deadly attacks on the new government’s security forces.

The ambush spiralled into revenge killings as thousands of armed supporters of Syria’s new leadership flocked to coastal areas.

Estimates suggest about 1, 000 civilians were killed amid indiscriminate attacks, including reports of brutal murders.

The government then sent reinforcements to Latakia and Tartous in order to regain control.

‘ 100 percent misleading ‘

Iran, a long-term al-Assad ally, denied on Monday any involvement in the violence.

Media reports including from the Saudi-owned Al Arabiya TV channel have suggested that Iran and allied groups in the region were behind the violence.

Al-Sharaa had blamed the violence on “attempts by the remnants of the toppled regime and foreign parties behind them to create renewed sedition and pull our country into civil war”.

Regional media had then followed up by pointing the finger at Tehran.

However, a spokesman for Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs rejected the accusation and condemned attacks on minorities in Syria.

“This accusation is completely ridiculous and rejected, and we think that pointing the finger of accusation at Iran and Iran’s friends is wrongly addressed, a deviant trend, and a hundred percent misleading”, Esmaeil Baghaei said.

“There is no justification for the attacks on parts of the Alawite, Christian, Druze and other minorities, which have truly wounded the emotions and conscience of both the countries of the region and internationally”, he added.

Tehran helped to prop up al-Assad during the country’s long civil war and provided him with military advisers.

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Friday that Tehran has remained “an observer” of the situation in Syria since the takeover by HTS.