As the EU and China celebrate 50 years of diplomatic relations amid waning tensions, Ursula von der Leyen and Antonio Costa, top EU officials, are scheduled to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing.
The 25th EU-China summit will take place on Thursday in Beijing, where Von der Leyen and Costa will lead the European Commission and the European Council, respectively. Due to the ongoing political unrest between Brussels and Beijing, von der Leyen and Costa were unsure whether they would actually meet with Xi in the days leading up to the one-day summit.
According to a report from The Financial Times, Xi declined to attend the meeting, which had originally been scheduled to be a two-day summit in Brussels.
Only this week did China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs officially confirm that Xi, von der Leyen, Costa, and Li Qiang, the premier of China, would meet.
Beijing has billed the event as a chance to rekindle relations with Europe, according to Marina Rudyak, an assistant professor at the German-based Institute of Chinese Studies.
According to Rudyak, “let’s normalize the relations, let’s focus on pragmatic cooperation, let’s focus on where we agree and accommodate where we disagree,” which is a trend that the Chinese side has consistently observed.
Chinese state media published a positive analysis of EU-China relations ahead of the summit, which is frequently seen as an indirect way for Chinese officials to address domestic issues.
Guo Jiakun, a spokesman for the Chinese-EU relationship, described the relationship as “one of the most influential bilateral relationships in the world” during a press conference on Tuesday.
According to Guo, “China and the EU relationship is now at a crucial moment, building on previous successes and launching a new chapter.”
Guo continued, noting that the international landscape is becoming more and more turbulent, with “unilateralism and protectionism” emerging as new opportunities and challenges for the relationship.
Tensions exist between Ukraine and Xinjiang.
Due to a number of ongoing and arduous disputes, Beijing has offered to resolve a potential conflict with Brussels. However, Western observers have low expectations for the EU and China’s outcome.
Although the EU and China frequently disagree on human rights and political oppression, the relationship changed when the EU sanctioned Chinese officials for oppressing ethnic minority Uighur Muslims in 2021.
Members of the European Parliament and several think tanks were among the 10 Europeans that China personally sanctioned.
Prior to the EU-China summit, Beijing lifted sanctions on the European MEPs in a show of goodwill, but other political rifts have persisted as a result of China’s ongoing, close relationship with Russia, which has sparked Russians’ 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
In light of the ongoing international sanctions, Beijing is also widely believed to be able to keep Russia’s economy afloat, particularly by purchasing Russian energy exports.
China has also been accused of avoiding the arms embargo by selling “dual-use” goods to Russia for both military and civilian purposes.
China has defended its actions, claiming that it has long desired a “negotiation, ceasefire, and peace” in Ukraine.
Despite Rudyak’s report at Heidelberg University that Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi reportedly told his EU counterpart that Beijing did not want to see Russia lose the war with Ukraine because it would free up US attention, European officials were alarmed in June.
The bloc, which is currently looking into Beijing’s economic ties with Russia, last week sanctioned two Chinese banks for the first time as part of its most recent wave of sanctions against Moscow in an effort to end the conflict. The EU’s sanctions list also included five Chinese-based businesses.
The Chinese government threatened to implement its own measures against Europe after its Ministry of Commerce warned that the sanctions against Chinese banks and companies “seriously harmed” trade and economic ties with the EU.
These issues, according to William Yang, a senior analyst for Northeast Asia at the Brussels-based nonpartisan think tank Crisis Group, will obscure the EU-China summit on Thursday.
In light of the ongoing US-Russia competition, Beijing continues to support its relationship with Russia, Yang said.
“With these fundamental contradictions, it’s unlikely that the upcoming summit will have any significant breakthroughs.”
A close but turbulent trade union
The economic relationship between the EU and China has recently become a source of tension.
China is the third-largest trading partner of the EU for goods and services, but EU officials are concerned about their skyrocketing trade deficit with China, which, according to EU trade data, increased by 30.8% ($359bn) between 2015 and 2024 to reach 305.8 billion ($359bn) last year.
China has long accused the EU and its members of “dumping” their cheap state-subsidized exports on the European market, but the situation has recently gotten worse.
The debate over trade and balance in Europe is “unfolding,” according to the statement from the United States. This is a unique feature of Europe, according to Rudyak.
“Europe is genuinely concerned about its main industries, including automotive,” he said. She continued, “There is a great concern about Chinese EV overcapacity being submerged on the EU market at prices that European companies cannot compete, and subsidised Chinese overcapacity crowding out European backbone industries.”
Chinese automakers have also suffered as a result of Beijing’s recent decision to curtail the export of rare earth minerals and magnets, which are essential components for many electric vehicles and auto parts.
Beijing, for its part, has launched its own “dumping” investigations into Europe, focusing on important goods like pork and brandy.
Beijing is frustrated with Europe, even as Beijing attempts to reshape relations, according to Wang Yi-wei, director of Renmin University’s EU Research Center.
According to Wang, the EU’s frequently conflicting approach to its relationship with the US and China ranks at the top of the list for Beijing.
China has occasionally made foolhardy predictions about how Europe would resist US influence. However, the EU tries to strike a balance between opposing American dominance and cooperating with the US, including supporting its efforts to contain China, such as by justifying tariff disputes as addressing “Chinese challenges,” Wang said in remarks shared with Al Jazeera.
China wants the EU to stop presenting their relationship as one of “competitive cooperation” and instead let them view it through the lens of “cooperative competition,” he asked.
Senior EU analyst Marta Mucznik of the Crisis Group said observers hope that the summit will at least open up channels of communication between officials from both sides with low expectations for a breakthrough.
