Kyiv, Ukraine – Ahead of the emergency summit in Paris on Europe’s response to being excluded from US-Russia peace talks, Ukraine’s president warned of his country’s bleak future if US military aid is cut.
In an interview with the NBC news program Meet the Press, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said, “We will have a low chance of surviving without the support of the United States.”
Donald Trump, the president of the United States, expressed his willingness to reduce military aid to Ukraine in December.
Zelenskyy rejected a proposed US agreement that would grant Washington access to Ukraine’s rare earth minerals in exchange for continued military support, which could strain relations even more.
The refusal, along with Trump’s recent statements and private calls with both Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin, have raised fresh uncertainty about Washington’s long-term support for Kyiv.
Relying on Europe
With US support uncertain, Europe faces mounting pressure to fill the gap.
Zelenskyy raised the issue of Europe developing its “own military” during the Munich Security Conference on February 14 and 16 in response to Trump’s comments and actions.
“Let’s be honest. We can’t rule out the possibility that America might reject Europe on a security-related issue, Zelenskyy said.
Former deputy commander of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ General Staff, Lieutenant General Ihor Romanenko, stated to Al Jazeera that Ukraine will require more assistance than Europe can provide.
“Europe can’t possibly replace American aid,” he said, adding that Ukraine won’t survive long without US military aid and predicting, “We will last six months. ”
Political turbulence could stymie European support.
Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Slovakia’s PM Robert Fico, both sceptical of military aid to Kyiv, could block EU-wide decisions. Meanwhile, Germany’s far-right AfD party is surging in the polls, further complicating Europe’s ability to act decisively.
Alternative for Germany (AfD) is anti-immigration, anti-European Union, and often pro-Putin. It raises the possibility of forcing Berlin to stop supporting Kyiv and deport Ukrainian refugees.
Ukraine has faced difficulties in increasing its production of weapons and ammunition, despite the possibility of a military aid agreement between Europe and the United States. Russia’s defense sector produced more weapons than NATO, underscoring the need for the EU to revigorate its defense sector for Ukraine.
North Korea has also offered assistance to Russia, with Ukrainian intelligence reporting that thousands of troops have been dispatched by Pyongyang to Russian-held areas. According to South Korea, North Korea has also provided millions of artillery shells to Moscow.
‘It was lousy’
Without US military assistance, Ukraine already had a glimpse of life, according to Romanenko.
A bill passed in April 2024 that would provide for more than $60 billion in desperately needed funding for Ukraine had been delayed for months by Republican hardliners under the influence of former president Donald Trump.
“We’ve already seen what a six-months-long suspension of aid resulted in,” Romanenko said.
According to Romanenko, Ukraine lost a number of strategic strongholds in the southeast Donbass region before the package was approved, losing “thousands of lives.”
During the delay in providing military aid, Bohgan, a military officer stationed in Donbas, claimed that fighting there quickly became much riskier.
“It was lousy, we could fire only five shells a day, while the [expletive] Russians could fire hundreds at us without counting,” said Bohgan, who could not give his last name due to Ukraine Ministry of Defence regulations.
‘Mid-summer or autumn’
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Russia began in February 2022, Washington has so far provided $175 billion in aid to Kyiv through five separate bills that have been approved by the US Congress.
According to researcher at the German University of Bremen, Nicholas Mitrokhin, how quickly Ukraine will use its US-funded military supplies will depend on how quickly its soldiers are forced to use them.
He claimed that Kyiv’s reliance on missiles for the US-made Patriot air defense system is due to constant Russian air raids. Patriot missile costs several million dollars, and they are often spent on expendable targets such as Iranian-made Shahed drones or their Russian-made replicas.
“That’s why my assumption is that the current and upcoming US supplies will definitely last until mid-summer [July], if not until autumn [September], provided they are spent moderately,” Mitrokhin said.
He claimed that Europe cannot make up for the loss of US military supplies, especially when it comes to Patriot missiles, light-armed vehicles, and 155mm shells used to thwart Russian infantry.
According to Mitrokhin, how long before Russia-US ties start to deteriorate and whether Ukraine would need to survive without US military assistance would be a factor.
“Trump’s and Putin’s relationship will turn sour, and we will soon see a decisive increase in US supplies,” he told Al Jazeera.
Russians and Americans dressed up as fashion designers.
Kyiv-based analyst Alexey Kushch said that Zelenskyy was right to decline Trump’s deal that tied military aid to Ukraine’s mineral resources.
If Washington writes off half of the debt and schedules the remainder to be paid back by the end of the century, he told Al Jazeera, the US should treat Ukraine like an ally and that it would be fair.
No one questioned whether the USSR should make up for the military aid by dispensing with its natural resources, according to Kushch, referring to the billions of dollars in military equipment that Russia purchased in the 1990s from Washington.
“Why should Ukraine, an ally, do it? ” Kushch asked Al Jazeera.
Some Ukrainians are upset about the most recent developments, regardless of whether the US stops providing military aid.
“As usual, somebody else will decide our fate,” Vsevolod Boyko, a retired school principal whose son Ihor is fighting in Donbas despite two wounds, told Al Jazeera.
