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No NATO seat or US troops: Trump’s new roadmap to end Russia-Ukraine war

United States President Donald Trump held back-to-back phone conversations Wednesday with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders, as his administration zeroes in on what it argues is a roadmap to end the war in Ukraine.

Negotiations to end the conflict – one of Trump’s key campaign pledges – are set to begin “immediately”, the US president said in between the calls.

Meanwhile, Trump’s secretary of defence, Pete Hegseth, provided the most detailed outline to date of the administration’s position on key issues in the war, from Ukraine’s NATO aspirations to its territorial goals.

Here’s a breakdown of the US’s new approach to the conflict:

How did Trump’s call with Putin go?

Trump said the 1.5-hour call was “highly productive” and that Russian President Vladimir Putin shared his goal to end the war.

“As we both agreed, we want to stop the millions of deaths taking place in the War with Russia/Ukraine,” Trump wrote in a post on his Truth Social account. “President Putin even used my very strong Campaign motto of, ‘COMMON SENSE.’ We both believe very strongly in it.”

Trump later said he and Putin plan to meet face to face, likely in Saudi Arabia “in the not-too-distant future”.

Al Jazeera’s Yulia Shapovalova, reporting from Moscow, said the Trump-Putin call inspired hope for many Russians. “They see that Trump is actively trying to keep his promise to put an end to the war in Ukraine,” said Shapovalova. “But still, there is a long way to go before any turning points in relations.”

How did Trump’s call with Zelenskyy go?

That conversation also went “very well”, according to Trump, who added that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy wants to “make peace”.

Recapping the call, Zelenskyy said he and Trump had a “very substantive” discussion on economic and military issues, including Ukraine’s use of drones. He also said Trump updated him on his earlier call with Putin.

“We are defining our joint steps with America to stop Russian aggression and guarantee a reliable, lasting peace,” said Zelenskyy. “As President Trump said, ‘let’s get it done.’”

However, Trump later threw water on some of Zelenskyy’s main war objectives, telling the press that Ukraine is unlikely to win back all the territory Russia has seized from it or join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

Are there more details on Trump’s vision to end the war?

Yes, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth gave a deeper overview while meeting with Ukraine’s military allies in Brussels. He covered the administration’s views on Ukraine’s future borders and defence assurances.

Hegseth argued that Trump’s position was based on a clear-eyed view of the front lines, where Russia has largely been gaining ground. The US, he made clear, was shifting its focus towards its homeland and the Asia Pacific region, which meant scaling back in Europe.

“We will only end this devastating war – and establish a durable peace – by coupling allied strength with a realistic assessment of the battlefield,” Hegseth told fellow members of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, a coalition of 57 countries militarily backing Ukraine, on Wednesday.

Will Ukraine join NATO?

According to the US, no. Hegseth stated bluntly that the US “does not believe that NATO membership for Ukraine is a realistic outcome of a negotiated settlement”.

Even Zelenskyy seemed to acknowledge that joining the defence bloc may be off the table, proposing a “Plan B” for Ukraine’s defence in an interview with The Economist. If Ukraine does not become a NATO member, Zelenskyy told the publication, it must amass an army of equal size to Russia.

“For all this, we need weapons and money. And we will ask the US for this,” Zelenskyy said.

However, Sweden’s Minister for Defence Pal Jonson said on Thursday that NATO should still be open to Ukraine in the future if it meets its conditions.

What about reclaiming territory?

It depends. While Ukraine may be able to restore some of its territory through negotiations, it should not expect to go back to its pre-2014 borders, when Russia annexed the eastern peninsula of Crimea, Trump told reporters later on Wednesday.

Russia “took a lot of land, and they fought for that land and they lost a lot of soldiers”, said Trump.

Hegseth, outlining this perspective in Brussels earlier, said chasing the “illusory goal” of reclaiming pre-2014 Ukraine “will only prolong the war and cause more suffering”.

This marks a sharp contrast to the previous US administration under Joe Biden, which provided tens of billions of dollars in military aid to Ukraine and pledged to support the country “as long as it takes” to fight off Russia’s invasion.

Ukraine’s Zelenskyy, who had long ruled out ceding any territory to Russia, appears to have quietly adapted to the shifting US stance.

In November, Zelenskyy said Ukraine was prepared to “bring Crimea back diplomatically” – potentially hinting at accepting de facto Russian control over the territory, though not officially. Zelenskyy has also recently proposed to “swap land” with Russia, with Ukrainian forces currently holding parts of Russia’s western Kursk region.

The Kremlin, however, has rejected such a swap as “impossible”.

What will Ukraine’s security guarantees be?

Whatever they are, they will not include US troops on the ground, said Hegseth.

Instead, he stated, Ukraine’s security should be safeguarded by “capable European and non-European troops”.

If these troops are deployed as peacekeepers, he added, they should not be affiliated with NATO.

Keir Giles, a senior consulting fellow at the London-based Chatham House think tank, told Al Jazeera this “effectively rules out … credible security guarantees” from either the US or NATO.

Hegseth also called on NATO allies to take on more of the financial defence burden, including bumping their defence spending from 2 percent to 5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP).

“Europe must provide the overwhelming share of future lethal and nonlethal aid to Ukraine,” said Hegseth.

What’s next?

The next big event to watch out for is the Munich Security Conference, starting Friday, where the war in Ukraine is expected to top the agenda.

Zelenskyy and other top Ukrainian officials will meet with US Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio on the sidelines of the event.

Keith Kellogg, Trump’s envoy for Russia, who will also be in attendance, noted: “When we come back from Munich, we want to deliver to the president the options, so when he does get [directly] involved in the peace process, he knows what it will look like for him.”

The flurry of diplomatic action – and pronouncements from US, Russian and Ukrainian leaders – likely mean “a process of finding a solution for a temporary ceasefire or a pause of active warfare” in Ukraine is under way, Mariia Zolkina, the head of regional security and conflict studies at the Democratic Initiatives Foundation, told Al Jazeera.

Pakistan’s fight against maternal mortality

101 East meets the tireless midwives helping Pakistan’s mothers give birth safely amid a climate crisis.

As the climate crisis worsens in Pakistan’s rural areas, women are paying the ultimate price.

With temperatures soaring above 50 degrees Celsius (122 degrees Fahrenheit) and torrential monsoons causing mass floods, health services are at a breaking point.

Childbirth can be a matter of life and death.

Fewer than one in two women give birth in a hospital, leading to some of the highest rates of infant and maternal mortality in the world.

In this desperate situation, an army of volunteers is on a mission to make childbirth safer.

At least 28 injured after car drives into crowd in Germany’s Munich

At least 28 people have been injured, some of them seriously, when a car drove into a group of people in the German city of Munich, authorities say.

Authorities did not provide details of the incident near the centre of Munich that took place about 10:30am (09:30 GMT) on Thursday, including whether the victims were hit deliberately.

Police said on the social media platform X that the driver was “secured” at the scene and no longer posed any danger. A damaged Mini Cooper could be seen at the scene.

The fire service said at least 28 people were injured, two of them seriously, according to German news reports.

Al Jazeera’s Dominic Kane, reporting from Wetzlar, Germany, said the driver of the car is a 24-year-old Afghan asylum seeker who was previously known to police due to drug-related offences and petty theft.

Kane quoted Bavarian Premier Markus Soeder as describing the incident as a “probable attack”.

Munich Mayor Dieter Reiter said he was “deeply shocked” by the incident. He said children were among those injured.

A demonstration by the service workers union ver.di was taking place at the time of the incident. It was not immediately clear whether demonstrators were among the injured.

The incident throws security back into the spotlight before federal elections next week and after several violent attacks.

Kane said migration is a key issue leading into the February 23 elections, in which 60 million people are eligible to vote.

The incident in Munich also came as international leaders, including United States Vice President JD Vance and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, arrive in the city for the three-day Munich Security Conference, which starts on Friday.

Police investigate at the scene where a car drove into a crowd in Munich [Wolfgang Rattay/Reuters]

Australia, China trade barbs over midair encounter above South China Sea

Australia has accused China of “unsafe” military manoeuvre after a Chinese fighter jet dropped flares near an Australian air force plane patrolling the South China Sea, drawing a quick pushback from Beijing.

The Australian Defence Force said on Thursday that its plane was flying a “routine” surveillance patrol over the contested waters on February 11 when the Chinese aircraft Shenyang J-16 approached.

It added that the jet “released flares in close proximity” to the Australian Poseidon surveillance plane, describing the incident as “an unsafe and unprofessional manoeuvre that posed a risk to the aircraft and personnel”.

Australian Defence Minister Richard Marles said the flares passed within 30 metres (100 feet) of the aircraft, which typically carried about nine people.

No one was injured but Marles said the move posed the “potential for significant damage”.

He told Sky News that officials had voiced their displeasure with their Chinese counterparts in Canberra and Beijing.

The Australian government “expressed its concerns” to China over the incident.

‘Violation of Chinese sovereignty’

Beijing swiftly hit back, accusing the Australian plane of “violating Chinese sovereignty and endangering Chinese national security”.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun said that “without Chinese permission, the Australian military aircraft deliberately intruded into the airspace around China’s Xisha Islands,” Beijing’s name for the Paracel Islands.

The Paracel group of islands is also claimed by Vietnam and Taiwan.

“China’s measures to expel the aircraft were legitimate, legal, professional and restrained,” Guo said.

He added that Beijing had “lodged solemn representations” with Canberra to demand an end to “infringements and provocations”.

China claims almost all of the South China Sea, despite an international ruling in 2016 concluding this has no legal basis.

The midair incident is the latest in a string of episodes between China and Australia in the increasingly contested airspace and shipping lanes of Asia.

It also coincided with the arrival of three Chinese navy vessels in waters northeast of Australia’s mainland.

Australia’s Defence Department officials said a Chinese frigate and a cruiser had been spotted near Australia’s “maritime approaches” with a supply tanker in tow.

Marles said it appeared to be unrelated to the aircraft incident but the Australian navy had sent its own frigate to shadow their voyage.

“Australia respects the rights of all states to exercise freedom of navigation and overflight in accordance with international law, just as we expect others to respect Australia’s right to do the same,” the Department of Defence said.

Ukraine presses on in Kursk; Denmark warns Russia could wage war in Europe

Ukraine has advanced 5km (3 miles) deeper into Russian territory during the past week, as Russia again reportedly deployed North Korean forces against it.

But as Kyiv’s forces inched ahead, United States Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told a NATO meeting on Wednesday that it was “unrealistic” to expect a return to Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders and ruled out NATO membership for the war-torn nation – a major blow to Ukraine’s post-war ambitions.

Amid tensions between NATO allies, with several European members at odds with Washington’s perspective, the Danish Defence Intelligence Service (DDIS) released a report on Tuesday warning that Russia could launch a war with “one or more European NATO countries if it perceives NATO as militarily weakened or politically divided”.

“Since 2022, Russia has been undertaking a major reconstruction and reform of its military forces in parallel with its war effort in Ukraine,” the report said.

“During 2024, this effort has changed its nature from a reconstruction to an intensified military buildup with the goal of being able to wage an equal fight against NATO forces.

“The economic and material support from China and the support from North Korea and Iran with troops and weapons systems, respectively, are increasingly contributing to freeing up resources for Russia’s rearmament against NATO.”

Ukraine’s intensified push

On February 6, Ukrainian forces launched a new offensive with two mechanised battalions from the town of Makhnovka, which they control.

Geolocated footage showed they had moved along the 38K-028 highway to form a salient towards the southeast, capturing the settlements of Kolmakov and Fanaseyevka.

Ukrainian forces advanced somewhat further along that highway on Friday, holding positions close to Cherkasskaya Konopelka, said Russian reporters.

They said a second Ukrainian offensive launched from Dimitriukov was successfully checked.

Ukraine had launched another surprise offensive in Kursk on January 5.

Two surprise offensives in as many months suggest the importance Ukraine places on the Kursk operation, as well as Russia’s inability to anticipate Ukrainian actions, according to observers.

(Al Jazeera)

Moscow’s forces have been unable to dislodge Ukraine from Russian territory since August 6 last year, when Ukraine counter-invaded in a surprise move not even its allies knew about, as an active defence against Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

On the six-month anniversary of the operation, Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces (SSO) revealed that preparations had begun two months before the counter-invasion.

“When Russia in June 2024 continued to carry out loud air strikes on the Sumy region, small special forces groups entered the enemy rear in the Kursk region,” the SSO posted on its Telegram channel.

“The destruction of Russian air defence systems and ammunition depots did not leave the enemy the opportunity to react quickly. Point strikes on strategic objects and enemy logistics made it impossible to quickly transfer reinforcements,” it said.

The SSO also said its special operations forces liaised with local resistance fighters opposed to Russian President Vladimir Putin, to set up ambushes and carry out sabotage.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said Ukraine’s push into Kursk has diverted 60,000 of Russia’s most capable personnel from the Ukrainian front to defend Russian turf.

Manpower shortages

Last December, Russia deployed North Korean soldiers to help secure its territory, but those forces were said to have disappeared from the battlefield in mid-January after losing as much as a third of their number in dead and wounded, according to estimates.

Zelenskyy said on Friday that they were returning after recuperation, and a Ukrainian unit published video purporting to show them in active combat on Saturday.

INTERACTIVE-WHO CONTROLS WHAT IN EASTERN UKRAINE copy-1739356666
(Al Jazeera)

Both sides have faced manpower shortages.

Last May, Ukraine passed a conscription law obliging Ukrainian men aged 25-27 to enlist. The move was thought enough to raise a quarter of a million new soldiers, but Kyiv has struggled as some avoid the draft.

Ukraine has had to spend 50,000 of those new recruits bringing existing brigades back up to strength rather than building a dozen new brigades as planned. Zelenskyy said he would now offer inducements for 18-24 year-olds to sign up to fight as well.

Russia’s situation is also difficult.

Unlike Zelenskyy, Putin has not enlisted through general mobilisation, possibly fearing the political consequences.

Zelenskyy said on February 4 that Russia has lost 300,000 to 350,000 soldiers since the full-scale invasion, with another 600,000 to 700,000 wounded. The figures are the highest yet given by Ukraine, whose Ministry of Defence estimates more than 850,000 Russian dead and wounded.

Oleksandr Syrskii, Ukrainian commander-in-chief, said last month that 434,000 of those casualties were incurred in 2024 alone, suggesting that the war is becoming deadlier and less sustainable for Russia.

INTERACTIVE-WHO CONTROLS WHAT IN SOUTHERN UKRAINE-1739356671
(Al Jazeera)

Russian-North Korean military cooperation deepens

North Korea has apparently been helping Russia with migrant labour as well as soldiery.

South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) revealed on Sunday that 13,221 North Koreans entered the Russian Federation last year, 12 times the number that emigrated in 2023.

Those workers were separate from the 11,000 troops North Korea reportedly dispatched to Russia beginning in August.

About half of the workers entered on student visas, the NIS said.

The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, suggested this was a way of bypassing a UN Security Council Resolution barring any country from receiving North Korean labourers.

North Korea is sanctioned for its nuclear weapons programme, and the UN is concerned that a diaspora could reinforce the economy with remittances.

Putin has reportedly grown increasingly reliant on his North Korean ally for ammunition as well.

Andriy Kovalenko, the head of the Ukraine Center for Countering Disinformation, said last December that 60 percent of the artillery ordnance used by Russia now comes from North Korean factories.

INTERACTIVE-ATTACK_ON_KURSK_FEB_12_2025-1739356660
(Al Jazeera)

Japanese news network NHK quoted unnamed sources on Saturday saying Russia would co-develop drones with North Korea in order to increase the size of its arsenal.

“The sources say the accord on drone development is in return for North Korea’s deployment of soldiers,” said NHK.

Russia may also be assisting North Korea improve the accuracy of its ballistic missiles, which they are already using in Ukraine.

Two Ukrainian military sources told Reuters that all 20 North Korean ballistic missiles Russia has fired into Ukraine since late December have shown remarkably greater accuracy than those used earlier.

“The increase in accuracy – to within 50-100m of the intended target – suggests North Korea is successfully using the battlefield to test its missile technology,” Reuters quoted the sources as saying.

The ISW pointed out that hitherto, North Korean missiles had an accuracy range of 1 to 3 km (0.6 to 1.9 miles).

Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un examine a launch pad during their meeting at the Vostochny cosmodrome
Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un examine a launchpad during their meeting at the Vostochny cosmodrome outside the city of Tsiolkovsky on September 13, 2023 [Mikhail Metzel/ Sputnik/Kremlin Pool Photo via AP]

During a visit to Russia in September 2023, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un toured Vostochny Spaceport with Putin, visited production sites for military aircraft at Komsomolsk, and viewed Russian planes and missile systems.

“This is why we are visiting here,” state news agency Tass quoted Putin as saying at Vostochny. “The North Korean leader has expressed a strong interest in rocket technology, and they are also seeking to develop space exploration capabilities.”

Russia has threatened to provide its other weapons ally, Iran, with ballistic missile technology, and it could provide the same technology to North Korea.

Ukraine’s deep strikes

Ukraine continued its campaign of disrupting Russian weapons and energy supply to the front.

It said its long-range drones struck the Albashneft oil depot at Novominskaya, in the Russian region of Krasnodar Krai, on February 5, causing a fire.

The following day, Ukrainian drones struck the Primorsko-Akhtarsk Airbase, Ukraine’s General Staff said, causing an explosion and fire.

On Tuesday, the staff said their drones struck the Saratov Oil Refinery in Saratov City, which supplies the Russian military.

Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation said Ukrainian drones also struck the Engels Airbase and the Afipsky Oil Refinery in Krasnodar Krai during the week.

Ukraine has set a high priority on developing its own drones to strike deep in Russia unburdened by restrictions on the uses of Western weapons.

Ivan Havrylyuk, Ukraine’s deputy defence minister, said on Friday that Ukraine had patented 1,300 types of drone and drone ammunition since the beginning of the war, with 250 drone models approved last year alone.

Defence Minister Rustem Umerov said he would increase the size of existing drone battalions and regiments, and would unify their command to enable them to undertake coordinated action. That would enable Ukraine to create kill zones 10 to 15 km (6 to 9 miles) deep inside enemy territory, he said, destroying Russian forces before they reach the front lines.

Trump’s payment in rare earths

Zelenskyy told The Guardian on Tuesday that Europe could not supply Ukraine with the weapons it needs without US support.

Trump on February 3 said he wanted Ukrainian rare earth metals in return for US aid. Zelenskyy told The Guardian all allies could share in Ukraine’s mineral wealth, valued at 26 trillion euros ($28 trillion), but the US would have priority access.

Trump spoke with Putin on the phone for the first time on Wednesday, and phoned Zelenskyy to inform him of the discussion.

“I am grateful to the President for his genuine interest in our shared opportunities,” Zelenskyy later said in his evening address. “We discussed many aspects – diplomatic, military, economic.”

Zelenskyy said he would present the US delegation to the Munich Security Conference on Friday with “an agreement that will strengthen our security and give new momentum to our economic relations”.

INTERACTIVE Ukraine Refugees-1739356653
(Al Jazeera)

ICC Champions Trophy 2025 squads: India, Pakistan and full team lineups

The International Cricket Council’s (ICC) top eight men’s one-day international (ODI) teams will be vying for the coveted ICC Champions Trophy when the tournament gets under way in Pakistan on February 19 after an eight-year gap.

Hosts and defending champions Pakistan will be led by Mohammad Rizwan but will miss injured opener Saim Ayub.

ODI world champions Australia will enter the tournament with a severely depleted lineup as captain Pat Cummins and fellow pacers Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc have been withdrawn from their original squad. Former skipper Steve Smith will lead the side.

South Asian powerhouse and T20 world champions India have chosen an experienced squad under skipper Rohit Sharma but have been dealt a big blow by the prolonged injury-related absence of their leading bowler Jasprit Bumrah.

All participant nations have named their final 15-member squads. Here is the complete players list:

Afghanistan

Squad: Hashmatullah Shahidi (captain), Rahmat Shah, Rahmanullah Gurbaz (wicketkeeper), Ikram Alikhil (wicketkeeper), Ibrahim Zadran, Sediqullah Atal, Azmatullah Omarzai, Mohammad Nabi, Gulbadin Naib, Rashid Khan, Noor Ahmad, Fazal Haq Farooqi, Naveed Zadran, Farid Ahmad Malik, Nangeyalia Kharote.

Australia

Squad: Steve Smith (captain), Alex Carey (wicketkeeper), Nathan Ellis, Aaron Hardie, Travis Head, Josh Inglis (wicketkeeper), Marnus Labuschagne, Glenn Maxwell, Matt Short, Adam Zampa, Jake Fraser-McGurk, Sean Abbott, Ben Dwarshuis, Spencer Johnson, Tanveer Sangha.

Bangladesh

Squad: Najmul Hossain Shanto (captain), Mushfiqur Rahim (wicketkeeper), Towhid Hridoy, Soumya Sarkar, Tanzid Hasan, Mahmudullah, Jaker Ali, Mehidy Hasan Miraz, Rishad Hossain, Taskin Ahmed, Mustafizur Rahman, Parvez Hossain, Nasum Ahmed, Tanzim Hasan, Nahid Rana

England

Squad: Jos Buttler (captain, wicketkeeper), Harry Brook, Ben Duckett, Joe Root, Phil Salt (wicketkeeper), Jamie Smith (wicketkeeper), Jacob Bethell, Brydon Carse, Liam Livingstone, Jamie Overton, Jofra Archer, Gus Atkinson, Saqib Mahmood, Adil Rashid, Mark Wood

India

Squad: Rohit Sharma (captain), Shubman Gill (vice captain), Virat Kohli, Shreyas Iyer, KL Rahul (wicketkeeper), Hardik Pandya, Axar Patel, Washington Sundar, Kuldeep Yadav, Jasprit Bumrah, Mohammed Shami, Arshdeep Singh, Harshit Rana, Rishabh Pant (wicketkeeper), Ravindra Jadeja, Varun Chakravarthy.

New Zealand

Squad: Mitchell Santner (captain), Michael Bracewell, Mark Chapman, Devon Conway (wicketkeeper), Lockie Ferguson, Matt Henry, Tom Latham (wicketkeeper), Daryl Mitchell, Will O’Rourke, Glenn Phillips, Rachin Ravindra, Ben Sears, Nathan Smith, Kane Williamson, Will Young

Pakistan

Squad: Mohammad Rizwan (captain), Salman Ali Agha (vice captainn), Babar Azam, Fakhar Zaman, Kamran Ghulam, Saud Shakeel, Tayyab Tahir, Faheem Ashraf, Khushdil Shah, Usman Khan, Abrar Ahmed, Haris Rauf, Mohammad Hasnain, Naseem Shah, Shaheen Shah Afridi

South Africa