Poland has summoned the Russian ambassador and shuttered the country’s consulate in Krakow as it accuses Moscow of “sabotage”.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Warsaw announced the action on Monday as it reported that an investigation had found that Russian intelligence services had orchestrated a massive fire at a shopping centre in capital Warsaw in May 2024.
“Due to evidence that the Russian special services committed a reprehensible act of sabotage against the shopping centre on Marywilska Street, I have decided to withdraw my consent to the operation of the Consulate of the Russian Federation in Krakow,” Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski wrote on X on Monday.
The announcement followed a revelation by Prime Minister Donald Tusk the previous day that a yearlong investigation had revealed Moscow was behind the blaze, which gutted the shopping centre’s 1,400 retail units.
“We already know for sure that the large fire on Marywilska was the result of arson ordered by Russian services. The actions were coordinated by a person staying in Russia. Some of the perpetrators are already in custody, the rest have been identified and are being sought,” Tusk said on X on Sunday.
Deliberately destroying relations
Poland has repeatedly said its role as a hub for aid being sent to Ukraine has made it a target of Russian sabotage, cyberattacks and misinformation.
Several other Western nations have made similar accusations since the Kremlin launched an invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Moscow has persistently denied such allegations, calling them evidence of anti-Russian sentiment. It was quick to insist that it had no involvement in the arson attack and slammed the claim.
“Warsaw continues to deliberately destroy relations, acting against the interests of its citizens,” Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said, according to the state news agency RIA.
She added that Russia would soon deliver an “adequate response”.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the allegation of Russian involvement in the fire was totally groundless, and accused Warsaw of Russophobia.
The Polish announcement marks a new low in already tense relations between Warsaw and Moscow.
In October, Poland shuttered the Russian consulate in Poznan due to suspicion of sabotage efforts. Moscow closed the Polish consulate in St Petersburg in response.
Poland’s neighbours, also strong supporters of Ukraine, have made similar accusations of clandestine attacks orchestrated by Russian intelligence services.
Lithuanian prosecutors in March accused Russia of orchestrating an arson attack on an IKEA store in Vilnius, where a fire broke out three days before the blaze in Poland.
Western governments and intelligence agencies in Europe have pointed to Moscow as the source of a series of fires and other acts of sabotage aimed at destabilising allies of Ukraine.
Former British Home Secretary Charles Clarke has expressed little faith that United States President Donald Trump’s “combination of bullying and flattering” will produce a lasting ceasefire in Ukraine.
Trump, on April 17, presented Russia and Ukraine with a “final” ceasefire offer, which forces Kyiv to legally cede Crimea to Moscow, without offering it security guarantees.
“My picture from the outset, which is essentially pessimistic, is that Trump wanted his big moment and in the same way as with North Korea, he thought he could [coax Russia] into a situation,” said Clarke.
Trump had similarly tried to force North Korea into nuclear disarmament in 2019.
“I don’t myself see how [Ukrainian President Volodymyr] Zelenskyy or Ukraine as a whole could ever concede de jure control of Crimea to Russia. They could concede de facto control, but Trump didn’t seem to take that distinction,” Clarke said.
“He’s shaken things up, but I think he’s been obviously far too credulous to [Russian President Vladimir] Putin and to Russia in the whole process.”
Clarke spoke to Al Jazeera on the sidelines of the 16th Conference on Baltic Studies in Europe, hosted recently by Cambridge University’s Centre for Geopolitics, which Clarke co-directs with Brendan Simms, a professor of European geopolitics.
Can Europe face Russia?
The prospect of a possible ceasefire is rarely out of the headlines.
Over the weekend, Putin said Russia would engage in direct talks with Ukraine “without preconditions” – a rare offer throughout the conflict – after European leaders met Zelenskyy in Kyiv to call for a 30-day truce.
Ukraine and Europe have presented a ceasefire document, which, unlike Trump’s plan, makes no territorial concessions to Russia three years after it invaded Ukraine. The question is whether they are willing and able to back it with continued military effort if Russia and the US reject it.
“The scenario of a complete American withdrawal may be overly bleak right now, but it’s definitely a possibility,” said Simms.
Should Europe then offer Ukraine an independent security guarantee?
“I do think we should do that, but I think we should only do it if we are genuinely committed to going the full mile with Ukraine,” said Simms.
“I could quite easily see, for instance, a discourse in a country like Germany, which would say something like, ‘Well, it’s awful what’s happening in Ukraine, Trump is awful, [but] no we’re not going to do anything to help Ukraine, and we are going to use Trump as an excuse to walk away from supporting Ukraine’,” Simms said. “That is very much a discourse you’re beginning to hear in German public opinion.”
Both Clarke and Simms believed the Russian army’s ability to win an uncontestable military victory in Ukraine has been overestimated thanks to narratives touted by the Kremlin.
“There’s been far too much belief that the Russians have got an effective military and economic machine,” said Clarke, citing the Russian failure to take Kyiv in 2022 and losing control of the Black Sea to an adversary without a navy.
Russia’s territorial gains in Ukraine have slowed down dramatically, two separate analyses found last month.
The Ministry of Defence of the United Kingdom estimated that Russian forces seized 143sq km (55sq miles) of Ukrainian land in March, compared with 196sq km (75sq miles) in February and 326sq km (125sq miles) in January.
The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington, DC-based think tank, spotted the same trend, estimating Russian gains of 203sq km (78sq miles) in March, 354sq km (136sq miles) in February and 427sq km (165sq miles) in January.
This pattern of diminishing returns had started in 2024, a year when Russia wrested away just 4,168sq km (1,610sq miles) of fields and abandoned villages – equivalent to 0.69 percent of Ukraine, the ISW determined in January.
Those meagre gains came at the cost of 430,790 soldiers, the equivalent of 36 Russian motorised rifle divisions, outnumbering Russia’s losses in 2022 and 2023 combined, said Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence.
As Russia prepared to celebrate the 80th anniversary of victory in World War II, its losses in Ukraine were approaching the one million mark, Ukraine’s Defence Ministry said.
Al Jazeera is unable to independently verify casualty tolls.
“They do have weight of numbers on their side, but weight of numbers only counts if you’ve got willing fighters,” said Clarke. “And there’s a great deal of evidence that there’s real problems for the Russian leadership in terms of the attitude of Russian troops and Russian positions.”
While Europe could ultimately step up defence industrial capacity, Clarke cautioned that Europe would nonetheless struggle to replace US intelligence, political coherence and command and control.
A European force for the Baltic
These issues have recently come to the fore, as Europe grappled with the possibility of fielding a peacekeeping ground force in Ukraine.
Simms argued in favour of creating it, but against deploying it in Ukraine as a peacekeeping force.
One reason is that European militaries are not trained for the drone warfare now being developed in Ukraine and will not be effective, he said.
“The other consideration is that the Ukrainian army is our most effective ally. If we deploy forces as part of a peace deal, which will end the war in Ukraine by definition and take the Ukrainians out of the conflict, we will end up in a situation where our mobile force, our only deployable force, the preponderance of it will be fixed in Ukraine. Vladimir Putin will no longer be fixed in Ukraine. He can pivot to face the Baltic states in the high north, and the Ukrainians will no longer be in the field. So that will be almost like … a self-inflicted wound.”
A European mobile force should keep its powder dry for deployment wherever Putin strikes next, said Simms, most likely in the Baltic states, while Europe helps Ukraine in long-range fires – drones and missiles – and provides air cover.
Russia’s psyops: Nuclear blackmail
Clarke said it is “absolutely possible” that Europe and Kyiv can win the war without Washington’s support, but warned of a “high risk strategy” should Ukraine “hold on so long that Russia would fall over”.
Europe and Ukraine could win if Europe overcame its fear of nuclear blackmail, said Simms.
Putin threatened the use of nuclear weapons from the outset, he said, but did not use them when Ukraine claimed back 20,000sq km (7,720sq miles) of its territory in September 2022, nor when Ukraine counter-invaded Russia in August 2024.
An injured woman near her house, damaged by a Russian air attack, in a Kyiv neighbourhood, Ukraine, April 24, 2025 [Evgeniy Maloletka/AP Photo]
Yet fear of nuclear retaliation prevented Germany from giving Ukraine its 500km-range (310-mile) Taurus missile, which carries a 450kg warhead and impacts at high speed, devastating its targets.
“It’s not at all clear that if a power station in Moscow were destroyed by a Taurus, that [Putin] would use nuclear weapons. In fact, I think it is unlikely,” said Simms.
The US and China have agreed to a 90-day pause on punitive trade tariffs, with both sides also set to reduce proposed levies by 115 percentage points, following trade talks in Geneva over the weekend. Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng stressed the importance of resolving issues through equal and respectful dialogue.
China and the United States have agreed to suspend some of the heavy trade tariffs imposed against one another as they prepare to extend negotiations aimed at lowering trade war tensions.
The two countries issued a joint statement on Monday, following two days of trade talks in Geneva, Switzerland. They described the negotiations, which came after US President Donald Trump’s nationalist agenda prompted a spiral of increasingly heavy duties, as positive.
Global markets reacted positively to the news, with stock markets in Hong Kong, the US and Europe rising.
In the statement, Beijing and Washington said they recognise the importance of their bilateral economic and trade relationship to both countries and the global economy.
They said they would move forward “in the spirit of mutual opening, continued communication, cooperation, and mutual respect”.
As part of the agreement, the US will suspend its additional ad valorem rate of duties – tax based on the value of goods – by 24 percent for an “initial” period of 90 days. This will leave a 10 percent tariff rate in place.
China will reduce its duties on US imports by a similar amount, also retaining a tariff of 10 percent.
Washington will also roll back tariffs imposed by two executive orders signed by Trump in early April, affecting a wide range of US imports of goods from China, including Hong Kong and Macau.
Beijing will suspend tariffs imposed in response and “suspend or remove the non-tariff countermeasures” taken against the US.
‘Neither side wants to be decoupled’
The world’s two largest economies also agreed to establish a mechanism to continue discussions on economic and trade relations, and named officials to lead the talks.
Vice Premier of the State Council He Lifeng will be China’s top negotiator. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will lead the talks for the White House.
“These discussions may be conducted alternately in China and the United States, or a third country upon agreement of the Parties. As required, the two sides may conduct working-level consultations on relevant economic and trade issues,” the joint statement reads.
Bessent told reporters in Geneva that “both sides will move down reciprocal tariffs” by up to 115 percent on some goods after successful meetings during which the two delegations exhibited “great respect” for each other.
“The consensus from both delegations is neither side wants to be decoupled,” Bessent said, adding that the tariffs were the equivalent of an embargo, something neither side favoured.
Global markets had fallen considerably amid the trade wars launched by the Trump administration as uncertainty grew over the potential impact of the tariffs.
However, signs of a pullback have been seen in recent weeks.
Ukraine has said Russia fired more than 100 drones overnight, despite attempts from Kyiv’s allies to get Moscow to begin a 30-day ceasefire.
Ukrainian air defences destroyed 55 of the 108 drones that Russia launched since 11pm (20:00 GMT) on Sunday, Ukraine’s air force said in a statement on Monday, the day to begin the ceasefire proposed by Kyiv and its European allies to Russia.
The attacks also included 30 simulator drones that were lost along the way without hitting anything. Drones were shot down in the east, north, south and central parts of Ukraine, the air force said.
One person was wounded and residential buildings were damaged in the southern Odesa region, the military administration said. The attacks also damaged railway infrastructure and wounded a train driver in the eastern Donetsk region.
Ukrainian national railway operator Ukrzaliznytsia said “ceasefire proposals are being ignored, and the enemy continues attacks on railway infrastructure”.
Ceasefire calls, direct talks proposal
On a visit to Kyiv on Saturday, the leaders of France, Germany, Poland, and the United Kingdom called on Russia to agree to an unconditional ceasefire from Monday to allow for peace talks – a proposal they said was backed by the United States.
Russian President Vladimir Putin on Sunday proposed direct negotiations with Ukraine in Istanbul on May 15, without specifically addressing the European call but criticising “ultimatums” and “anti-Russian rhetoric”.
“We do not exclude that during these talks we will be able to agree on some new ceasefire,” Putin added.
Insisting that a ceasefire should take effect first, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy later said he would be prepared to meet Putin in Turkiye – but did not say whether he would still attend if Russia refused the truce proposal.
It came after US President Donald Trump said in a social media post Ukraine should agree to Putin’s proposal for direct talks “immediately”.
European leaders, however, reacted with scepticism to Putin’s proposal, with French President Emmanuel Macron warning that he was merely trying “to buy time”.
“An unconditional ceasefire is not preceded by negotiations, by definition,” Macron told reporters as he stepped off a train in the Polish city of Przemysl on his return from Ukraine.
Meanwhile, European ministers were set to meet in the United Kingdom on Monday for “critical” talks on “repelling Russian aggression”, in what will be the sixth gathering of the Weimar+ group.
British Foreign Secretary David Lammy was expected to announce further sanctions targeting those backing Russia’s invasion. “The challenge we face today is not only about the future of Ukraine – it is existential for Europe as a whole,” Lammy said before the talks.
At least 130 civilians belonging to the Fulani ethnic group were killed by Burkina Faso’s army and allied militias near the western town of Solenzo in March, Human Rights Watch (HRW) has said.
The killings took place amid a major weeks-long military campaign by special forces that resulted in “widespread civilian deaths and massive displacement” of the Fulani pastoralist community in the region, the rights group said in a report on Monday.
It added that an Al-Qaeda-affiliated group called the Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) then carried out a series of retaliatory attacks, hitting villages that the armed group perceived as having assisted the military.
Ilaria Allegrozzi, senior Sahel researcher at HRW, said in a statement the “the viral videos of the atrocities by pro-government militias near Solenzo” that cirinitially circulated “told only part of the story”.
“Further research uncovered that Burkina Faso’s military was responsible for these mass killings of Fulani civilians, which were followed by deadly reprisals by an Islamist armed group,” Allegrozzi added.
“The government needs to impartially investigate these deaths and prosecute all those responsible.”
‘Many women and children died’
HRW had reported in March that the government’s involvement was likely due to video evidence online.
At that time, the government strongly denied the allegations, saying in a statement it “condemned the propagation, on social media, of images inducing hate and community violence, and fake information aimed at undermining social cohesion” in the West African country.
Burkina Faso’s government and army did not immediately react to Monday’s report, which alleged that the Burkinabe army “led and participated in the massacre of more than 130, possibly many more, ethnic Fulani civilians by pro-government militias”.
The rights organisation’s report is based on interviews with witnesses to the attacks, militia members, journalists and civil society members.
Witnesses quoted by HRW said hundreds of government troops and drones, as well as a pro-government militia called the Volunteers for the Defense of the Homeland (VDP), were involved in attacks on Solenzo and other towns in the western Boucle du Mouhoun region.
The witnesses said most of the victims in Banwa province were women, children and older people.
Military helicopters and drones surveilled the area, “indicating direct command control of the operation”, HRW said.
A 44-year-old Fulani herder, who lost eight family members, told HRW that thousands of families from more than 20 villages were forced to flee to neighbouring Mali in search of protection.
“However, we couldn’t reach Mali without crossing villages [that were] occupied by the VDPs and the army. The VDPs shot at us like animals, while drones were flying over our heads. Many women and children died because they could not run,” he said.
Military rulers took power in Burkina Faso in 2022, but they have largely failed to provide the stability promised, as more than 60 percent of the country is estimated to be outside government control.
