For more than seven decades, the Zionist narrative has been the dominant force in America. It was largely unchallenged until the genocide in Gaza began, supported by powerful lobbies, nurtured by Christian evangelicals, and echoed by mainstream media.
An unwavering record of horror has challenged the Zionist narrative in the last almost two years due to the unwavering images of horror, the magnitude of devastation, and the shocking loss of lives. Poll after poll shows a shift in public opinion toward Israel. Americans are becoming less enthusiastic about sweeping support for the country’s long-standing ally on both sides of the political divide. What does this mean for Israeli-US relations then?
Not much in the near- and long-term. Israel’s US security cooperation, arms, and diplomatic support will hardly suffer. It is impossible to anticipate the nearly eight-decade-long support structure evaporating overnight.
However, US support will decline over time. In the wake of this, Israel will have to reevaluate its aggressive behavior in the area and reconsider its plans to overtake Palestine altogether.
What the polls indicate
Before the October 7, 2023 attacks, polls began to change, particularly among young Democrats. However, this change appeared to be accelerating significantly afterward.
Since 2022, according to a Pew Research poll conducted in March this year, attitudes toward Israel have increased from 42 to 53 percent of US adults. Democrats’ share of the change increased from 53% to 69 percent during the same time.
This change is unique because it is generationally transgender-friendly. Negative attitudes toward Israel increased from 43% to 66% among Democrats over 50, who are typically moderate on foreign policy issues.
Additionally, sympathy expressions have changed. These figures are 30 and 21 percent higher than those from an August poll by The Economist and YouGov, which found that 44 percent of Democrats sympathize with Palestinians and 15 percent with Israelis.
According to the same poll, 78% of Americans now support an immediate ceasefire, including 75% of Republicans, and that the majority of Americans still think Israel’s continued bombing of Gaza is unjustifiable. Only 28 percent of respondents said they were against Israel’s plan to massacre the Palestinians, compared to 43 percent of those who did not.
More importantly, a majority of Republicans support decreasing support for Israel, who currently stands at 24%.
The most alarming trend for Israel’s supporters is probably the most recent Harvard-Harris poll (PDF): 40% of young Americans now support Hamas, not Israel. Although this likely reflects a general lack of support for Palestinians, it shows significant gaps in the American youth’s ability to support Israel’s “Palestinian terrorism” narrative.
A disastrous vote of no confidence, far removed from the warm welcome he has received at the White House and Congress, came from the same poll, which found that only 27% of the vote was for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
How policy might change
The political math will shift to profound political change as older voters, Israel’s last electoral strength, replace younger voters who are more committed to the cause of Palestinian rights. When is the question now, not whether the US will reconsider its special relationship with Israel.
One of those apprehensions stems from the unique partnership between Israel and the United States. It would take a long time to change that.
There are some potential changes, of course, in the near future. Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump will have the polls to support a move away from Israel if there is a glaring rift between them, perhaps even on a personal level. He would have the political cover to claim that he is speaking to the American people if there was a clear shift in public opinion. However, it’s unlikely that such a significant change will occur.
More likely is that members of Congress will start shifting toward Israel-Palestine more frequently as a result of public pressure. Candidates who steadfastly reject may face opposition from younger, more determined candidates who oppose funding from pro-Israel groups like AIPAC.
However, there will be a lot of time needed for the change in Congress, not the least of which because it will face strong opposition. This is a crucial moment in US-Israeli history, according to pro-Israel lobby groups. They will use all of their available resources to ban any candidate who views Israel as a Palestinian or who doubts its continued support for Israel.
Additionally, foreign policy is rarely a factor in US elections because other issues like the economy and various social problems will continue to dominate political agendas.
In the near future, the transition won’t be bipartisan. Israel’s support from the republic is stronger. Since Joe Biden became president, the Democratic establishment has been under growing pressure from the populace. The Democratic leadership will have to take a different direction as younger members gain political power, as evidenced by Zohran Mamdani’s stunning victory in the Democratic primary.
The progressive bloc will grow as more pro-Palestinian politicians are elected, particularly in Congress, and the pressure to change policy will increase.
However, this process won’t be quick enough to stop the looming ethnic cleansing of Gaza or to immediately ameliorate the situation in Palestine. Instead of a change in US policy, relief is more likely to occur as a result of international pressure and local developments.
However, a lessening of Congress’ or even a US president’s support for Israel would require the Israeli government to abandon its overly militaristic position in the region and resume its adventurous militarism in the long run. In addition, it will likely be forced to make concessions regarding the Palestinian conflict. It’s unknown whether this would be sufficient to establish a Palestinian state.
