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Why is Senegal squaring up to the International Monetary Fund?

Senegal and the International Monetary Fund are at odds over a bailout that it urgently needs to close its public finances. While the IMF wants the West African nation to undertake a painful restructuring before it will agree to a bailout, Senegal, which was recently downgraded to deep within “junk bond” status, is resisting this plan.

Senegal was reduced by credit rating agency S&amp, P earlier this month, citing the country’s fragile government finances. Senegal’s public finances remain precarious, especially in the absence of a comprehensive official support program, according to S&amp, P on November 14.

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After the government discovered $7 billion in borrowing that the previous administration had concealed, the IMF suspended a $1.8 billion funding package for Senegal last year.

Negotiations between Dakar and the IMF for a new bailout package are continuing as they hammer out what the government must do to restore public finances. However, so far, neither party has been able to reach an agreement.

How much public debt does Senegal have?

In its latest rating review, S&amp, P estimated Senegal’s public debt had risen to $42.1bn, or 119 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), at the end of 2024, making it one of the most indebted countries in Africa. About 9% of GDP was made up of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) owed debt, which was excluded from that figure.

Senegal has relied heavily on borrowing to pay for infrastructure projects since 2008. But during the COVID-19 crisis and subsequent jump in global interest rates, which made debt more expensive, costs soared as income fell. Senegal’s fiscal strains increased significantly in turn.

The government is now attempting to reduce its fiscal deficit, which is the percentage of public spending that exceeds the government’s budget, from 26% of GDP in 2024 to 5.4 percent by 2027, while reducing it to just 3 percent.

But S&amp, P’s outlook is far less rosy. The organization projects a fiscal deficit of 8% of GDP in 2027 and 8% of GDP in the next year. In this context, S&amp, P projects a 123 percent debt-to-GDP ratio as the ratio will increase over the coming year before gradually decreasing in 2027.

What has led to the current impasse with the IMF?

Bassirou Diomaye Faye won Senegal’s presidential election in March 2024. He ran in place of Ousmane Sonko, a disqualified opposition figure who had been barred from office because of a libel case involving the then-tourism minister. But after the vote, Sonko became Faye’s prime minister.

The new Pastef party government mandated an audit of the nation’s public finances in September 2024. The previous administration, led by President Macky Sall, significantly understated the public debt’s current status, according to Senegal’s court of auditors.

The court estimated that Senegal’s real debt-to-GDP ratio was closer to 100 percent, compared with the roughly 70 percent which had earlier been reported, revealing almost $7bn in undisclosed borrowing, which largely stemmed from not including the liabilities of SOEs.

The Sall administration’s “conscious decision,” according to the IMF, was used to conceal Senegal’s true debt burden. The IMF then terminated its $ 1.8 billion loan agreement with Senegal, which it had approved in 2023.

IMF loan packages are typically paid over in tranches. The IMF had already disbursed $ 700 million of the total by the time it abruptly ended the Senegal program. The executive board of the IMF must now decide whether to keep the arrangement going. If its review goes against Dakar, the board could ask the government to repay the disbursed funds.

The IMF may choose to continue funding the program and announce the next installment of the funding package if the review is favorable.

For context, Senegal’s deficit from 2024 is roughly half the size of the IMF’s $1.8 billion loan. The upshot is that it would provide essential funds for public spending. Without it, Senegal will have a significant funding problem.

On March 24, 2024, Senegalese opposition leader Ousmane Sonko supports presidential candidate Bassirou Diomaye Faye.

Why hasn’t the IMF reached a decision about this yet?

The IMF mission chief for Senegal, Edward Gemayel, said, “We’re engaged and determined to move as quickly as possible to help. ” Following a two-week visit to the West African nation, the IMF mission chief said on November 6.

In order to reduce its debt, Prime Minister Sonko revealed that Gemayel’s team had urged Senegal to undergo a restructuring, which would involve replacing old debt with new debt with longer maturities, lower interest rates, or a reduced debt stock. But these arrangements generally lead to reduced public spending and slower growth.

Countries that default on their debts typically struggle because they are forced to cut spending to stabilize their finances, leaving less money for investment and public services. Investor confidence also tends to decline, making borrowing from governments more expensive and difficult.

At a meeting of Pastef officials on November 8, Sonko, who has considerable influence over economic policy, said he had rejected the IMF’s proposal to restructure Senegal’s debt. However, Dakar now has few options for closing the nation’s fiscal gap as a result of his decision to reject the IMF’s plan.

The prime minister will need to present a credible fiscal plan that restores Senegal’s finances without resorting to a debt restructuring in order to persuade the Washington-based IMF to release its paused loan.

But Gemayel has already cautioned that the government’s 2026 budget is “very ambitious”, citing large tax increases. He declared, “We’ve never seen this before.” They must therefore be cautious.

What has the impact of this been on Senegal’s economy?

Investors were irritated by Sonko’s decision to reject the IMF’s restructuring plan. Senegal’s 2031-dollar bonds dropped by 4% on Monday, November 10 for the first trading day following Sonko’s cabinet meeting. Elsewhere, its notes due in 2048 fell by 2.4 cents to $60.30.

According to Leeuwner Esterhuysen, an analyst for Africa at Oxford Economics, “the markets reacted to the IMF’s request for a restructuring,” “the bonds dropped.” There is no indication of any imminent IMF funding, despite the fact that there is obviously a high level of debt distress.

“It seems the Fund is making a new loan contingent on Dakar accepting a restructuring”, Esterhuysen told Al Jazeera. The government is “playing ball,” he said, “for the time being, it will only prolong the impasse.”

In addition to the market’s concern, the cost of credit-default swaps, or default insurance, nearly doubled in the days leading up to November 12 from 750 to 1,120 basis points, or 3.7 percentage points.

During a speech at a rally in Dakar on November 11, Sonko insisted, “Senegal is a proud nation. We won’t be treated like a state that has failed. Better to accept a debt restructuring than to accept tax revenue?

Since 2020, Zambia, Ghana, Ethiopia, and Chad have all been forced to restructure their debt. However, other African governments are unappealing because of the lengthy and laborious process and accompanying economic hardship.

Instead of opting for expensive trade-offs last year, Kenya, another debt-strapped nation, went for tax increases and subsidy cuts. The measures were aimed at reducing Kenya’s budget deficit. They also sparked vicious demonstrations, which highlighted the political risks of austerity.

Faye Sonko
On March 20, 2024, a billboard for Senegalese presidential candidate Bassirou Diomaye Faye, supported by Ousmane Sonko, was displayed in Dakar, Senegal.

How has this affected the political situation in Senegal?

Sonko opposes an IMF-backed restructuring because “he doesn’t want to undermine his 2024 election campaign pledge to restore Senegal’s sovereignty,” according to Paul Melly, a consulting fellow on the Africa program at Chatham House.

Sonko is currently battling “tensions” between himself and President Faye, according to Melly. Earlier this month, it emerged that Sonko’s party rejected Faye’s attempt to lead a revamped coalition, a move viewed as an effort to consolidate power.

Sonko is regarded as a key power broker, frequently deciding policy on his own terms, despite serving under Faye and &nbsp. According to Melly, “Sonko was never going to be a subordinate prime minister.”

As such, Senegal’s fiscal position represents a major political challenge for Sonko. He may need to impose unpopular spending cuts to stay ahead of debt repayments, but he still wants to assert his “sovereignty” position.

What other options does Senegal have for resolving its debt problem?

In recent weeks, the government has introduced new levies on tobacco, alcohol, gambling and widely used mobile money transfers. In addition, it has made internal efforts to reduce spending by trying to reduce travel expenses and car purchases.

It’s difficult to strike a balance, Melly said. &nbsp, “Expectations remain high even as the economic challenges are huge”.

Putin says he is ready to guarantee in writing no Russian attack on Europe

Vladimir Putin, president of Russia, has dismissed claims that Moscow plans to invade another country as “lie” and “complete nonsense,” saying that he is ready to guarantee in writing that Russia will not attack another European nation.

Putin criticized Russia’s claims that it is planning an attack on Europe as “ridiculous” during a summit of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a Russia-led military alliance that includes some former Soviet republics, in Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan.

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We never intended to do that, in fact. However, we’ll document it if they want to hear it from us. No denying that, according to the Russian president.

European leaders are skeptical of Putin’s claims that Moscow is planning a second invasion because he has repeatedly denied that Russia will invade Ukraine before starting one in February 2022.

Putin expressed optimism about a draft draft United States-backed peace plan, which he said could serve as the “basis for future agreements.” In response to questions about efforts to end the conflict in Ukraine.

Putin also expressed his readiness for a “serious” discussion to end the conflict, but he also reaffirmed that Moscow was ready to advance if necessary and to occupy more of Ukraine.

He reaffirmed that a major prerequisite for the end of the fighting was that Ukrainian troops leave areas in the Donbass region of eastern Ukraine, including those that Russian troops currently control, before resuming operations.

The Ukrainian troops must leave the regions they currently control before fighting will end. We will use military force to stop them if they don’t pull back, he said.

A Russian assault on its capital, Kyiv, would be opened up by a withdrawal, according to Ukraine.

The president has “lost his legitimate status,” the statement read.

Putin also made the claim that he was open to a settlement with Kyiv, but once more attacked Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s government as illegitimate and said signing any agreements with them was “legally impossible.”

We ultimately, of course, want to reach an agreement with Ukraine, largely speaking. However, as of right now, this is essentially a possibility, Putin said, reiterating unfounded claims that Zelenskyy’s presidential term had expired in May 2024 and that Kyiv had lost control of the country.

The Ukrainian government “made a fundamental strategic error” by cramming presidential elections, adding that since then, the president has lost his rightful place in the world, according to Putin.

Kyiv has argued that it is unable to hold elections while under martial law and protecting its borders from Russian attacks. A resolution granting Zelenskyy’s legitimacy to remain in office was overwhelmingly approved by Ukrainian lawmakers in February.

Putin added that any peace agreement must be accepted by the international community because of the Zelenskyy government’s alleged illegitimacy, as well as Russian gains in Ukraine.

Andriy Yermak, the president’s top official, reiterated on Thursday that Zelenskyy “will not sign away territory.”

No one should bet on Zelenskyy’s presidency as long as they are in office, Yermak told US magazine The Atlantic.

A 28-point peace plan for Ukraine was released last week by the US, and it was widely accepted by Russia. It demanded that Kyiv make significant concessions, including ceding territory and abandoning its NATO ambitions.

Ukrainian First Deputy Foreign Minister Sergiy Kyslytsya reported that the plan has since been modified with Ukrainian input, with the removal of the 600, 000-member Ukrainian army cap and general war crimes amnesty.

According to Zelenskyy, Ukrainian delegations are scheduled to meet with Washington officials on Thursday to work out a strategy for peace and security guarantees for Kyiv that was discussed at previous Geneva discussions.

He stated that there would be more discussions the following week without providing specifics.

Next week, Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy, will travel to Moscow to continue discussions on crucial issues, including security guarantees for Europe and Ukraine.

Putin stated that his country intends to bring up its own “key issue” with the US delegation, particularly a passage in the peace plan that states that Moscow only intends to recognize Russia’s de facto control of Crimea and other Ukrainian territory.

Jordan demands Russia stop recruiting citizens after two killed in fighting

After two Jordanians were killed while fighting in the Russian military, Jordan has pressed the Russian government to stop illegally recruiting its citizens.

On Thursday, the Jordanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a warning to Moscow and other “entities” who work online to recruit people for Moscow.

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The ministry made no mention of Russia’s nearly four-year-old conflict with Ukraine, where thousands of paid foreign fighters have joined Moscow’s side.

The Jordanian Foreign Ministry stated in a statement posted on X that it would “take all available measures” to stop Jordanians from furthering their recruitment and that Moscow should void its current enlisted citizens’ contracts.

According to the ministry, the recruitment “endangers the lives of]its] citizens” and violates both Jordanian domestic and international law.

Although Russia has a history of attracting foreigners to fight in Ukraine, the statement did not provide any further identifying information or specify when or where the two citizens were killed.

According to Brigadier General Dmytro Usov, the Ukraine claims that Moscow has recruited at least 18, 000 foreign fighters from 128 nations. He claimed that 3 388 foreigners have died fighting for Russia in a post on the Telegram messaging app.

The majority of the foreign soldiers fighting for Russia in Ukraine were likely from North Korea, Usov did not provide a breakdown of the soldiers.

According to Western officials, Pyongyang sent between 14 000 and 15 000 soldiers to Russia’s defense in 2024, according to the New York-based Council on Foreign Relations.

According to Ukrainian Foreign Affairs Minister Andrii Sybiha, Moscow has also recruited at least 1,400 Africans from more than 30 nations using various methods ranging from deception to duress.

According to Sybiha, signing a contract with the Russian military “equivalent to signing a death sentence” for foreign recruits.

“The Russian army’s foreigners are facing a depressing fate. In a post on X on November 9, Sybiha said that the majority of them are immediately sent to the so-called “meat assaults,” where they are quickly killed.

Trump says US will soon stop Venezuelan drug trafficking ‘by land’

In the most recent escalation in tensions with Venezuela, which has accused Washington of planning to overthrow its president Nicolas Maduro, the US president has stated that the country will start targeting it “by land.”

As a result of Washington’s attacks on so-called “drug trafficking vessels” and other international military exercises, dozens of people have died in international waters as a result of US forces’ deployments to the Latin American region, including an aircraft carrier group, stealth fighter jets, and thousands of troops.

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In a video message he delivered to US forces over the Thanksgiving holiday, Trump said, “You really are the backbone of America’s air force, and you’ve been working in recent weeks to deter Venezuelan drug traffickers, of which there are many.

Trump remarked, “Of course, there aren’t any coming in by sea any more.” We will start preventing them by landing on land as a result of the people’s refusal to deliver goods by sea.

The land is simpler, but that will start very soon. We issued a warning. Stop poisoning our nation.

“But we’re going to handle that,” he said. Already, we are exerting a lot. Nearly stopped, we think. The US president continued, “It’s about 85 percent stopped by sea.”

At least 83 people have been killed by US military strikes on ships in the Caribbean Sea and Pacific Ocean since September, totaling more than 20. The campaign of attacks has been characterized by legal experts and governments in Latin America as extrajudicial killings.

Regional leaders claim that the attacks have resulted in the deaths of primarily fishermen despite Washington’s lack of proof that the vessels attacked were drug traffickers.

Trump claimed Maduro and senior Venezuelan government officials are involved in the drug trade and previously warned of potential military action against sites there.

Officials in Caracas claim that the US is using drug trafficking as a pretext to impose military rule in Venezuela in order to overthrow Maduro.

Despite weeks of US threats, Maduro said Venezuelans wouldn’t be intimidated.

Foreign and imperialist forces have been threatening to end the peace in Venezuela, the Caribbean Sea, South America, and Venezuela for 17 weeks using false and extravagant claims that no one believes, including in the powerful Venezuelan public opinion.

In his speech, which was broadcast on national television, Maduro stated, “Today, we say that there is no threat or aggression that frightens our people or takes us by surprise.”

Russia-Ukraine war: List of key events, day 1,373

On Friday, November 28, this is how things are going.

Fighting

  • According to Russian President Vladimir Putin, Russian forces have “completely surrounded” and “controlled” the troubled Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk.
  • Additionally, Putin asserted that the fighting would stop once Ukrainian troops left their posts in crucial areas. However, Russian forces will forcefully accomplish their goals if they don’t.
  • The Russian president added that it was “noticeably increasing” the pace of Russia’s rapid advance on the front line from all angles.
  • The top commander of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrskii, claimed on social media that Ukrainian troops had been preventing Russian forces from launching fresh assaults on Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. Additionally, Smyrskii claimed that Russia had to use reserve forces.
  • Over the course of one day, Russia’s air defenses shot down 118 Ukrainian drones, including 52 over the country’s Belgorod region, which borders Ukraine, according to the Moscow-based Ministry of Defense.

Process of peace

  • Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the president of Ukraine, stated that Ukrainian delegations and Americans will work together this week to find a solution to the conflict in Geneva and offer security guarantees for Kyiv.
  • Putin claimed that Russia would continue to fight if the draft peace proposals that the US and Ukraine discussed could serve as the foundation for upcoming agreements to end Moscow’s conflict with Ukraine.
  • Putin also referred to the Ukrainian leadership as illegitimate and said signing any peace agreements with them was absurd.
  • After Zelenskyy’s elected term expired, the Ukrainian leadership, according to the Russian president, ceased to hold elections. Under martial law and defending its territory from Russian attacks, Kyiv claims it cannot hold elections.
  • Andriy Yermak, the chief of staff for the Ukrainian president, told the US magazine The Atlantic that Zelenskyy would not agree to give up land to Russia in exchange for peace.
  • No one should bet on us giving up territory as long as Zelenskyy is president. He won’t leave any territory unmarked, Yermak said.
  • German Chancellor Friedrich Merz argued that Ukraine will still require strong security guarantees and strong armed forces even after a peace deal with Russia, and that no territorial concessions should be made.
  • “We are very pleased with the US government’s efforts to solve this problem. However, Merz added that both the security interests of Europeans and Ukraine must be protected.
  • Maria Zakharova, a spokeswoman for the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, stated that Moscow finds NATO membership unacceptable.
  • She told reporters, “The threat is still the NATO expansion,” for us. “We are still concerned about NATO’s desire to bring Ukraine into its orbit.”

Sanctions

  • Companies can continue doing business with Lukoil International, a subsidiary of Russia’s sanctioned Lukoil, which has its headquarters in Austria, thanks to the United Kingdom’s temporary license. Payments and other transactions are permitted under certain conditions, including that Lukoil’s funds remain frozen, as per the licence’s effective date of February 26.
  • The EU’s plan to use frozen Russian state assets to aid Ukraine’s solvability, according to Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever, could stifle the development of a potential peace deal to put an end to the nearly four-year conflict.
  • In a letter to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, which the Financial Times obtained, De Wever stated that “having to advance the proposed reparations loan scheme would have as collateral damage that we as EU are effectively preventing reaching a final peace deal.”
  • Putin claimed that Russia is developing a series of retaliatory measures in response to potential European asset seizures. He warned that any attempt to seize Russian assets would constitute “a theft of property” and harm the world financial system.

Regional security

  • German federal prosecutors reported that a Ukrainian man who is alleged to have organized the Nord Stream gas pipeline’s sabotage in 2022 has arrived in Germany following his extradition’s approval last week. Russian gas was largely cut off from Europe by the explosions that destroyed the Baltic Sea pipeline three years ago.
  • Viktor Orban, the president of Hungary, announced plans to discuss the situation on Friday to ensure that Hungary receives sufficient Russian crude and gas supplies, which would also allow it to supply the neighboring Serbia.
  • Russia announced at the end of December that it would retaliate against Warsaw’s decision to close the Russian consulate in Gdansk by closing the Polish consulate in Irkutsk.

Russian politics

    Eight men allegedly participated in a deadly Ukrainian truck bomb attack on a Russian bridge that connects southern Russia and Crimea, and were given life sentences by a Russian military court.

  • The eight men who had been found guilty of terrorism-related terrorism ties to an organized crime organization that assisted Ukraine in carrying out the bombing are charged with helping.
  • The attack, which left five people dead and damaged what was a crucial supply route for Russian forces fighting in Ukraine, was blamed on Ukraine’s SBU domestic intelligence agency.