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Uncertainty looms in Madagascar as military leader Michael Randrianirina is expected to take charge of the country, following weeks of anti-government protests led by Gen Z groups. Al Jazeera’s Fahmida Miller looks at what this could mean for the nation’s future.
Antananarivo, Madagascar – On a typical Sunday morning in Mahamasina, a suburb of Madagascar’s capital Antananarivo, Sarobidy Ramarimanana joined the queue at her neighbourhood water point just after sunrise.
“I just wanted to fill my jerrycan and go to church,” she told Al Jazeera. “I was about to draw water when people started running; jerrycans everywhere.” The sound of police sirens had sparked panic, interrupting the calm of the neighbourhood as people fled.
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After weeks of tense antigovernment protests – and a crackdown that turned deadly – fear has become instinct, Ramarimanana said. People ran, tripping over their jerrycans, scattering them across the street. “I picked mine up and ran, too. I was scared.”
The 22-year-old student returned home, but she went back “angry”, she said, frustrated by the years of severe power and water supply cuts, sometimes lasting for days at a time, and the government’s failure to deliver improvements to such services.
She never made it to church. But later on Sunday she decided to join a bustling protest march in nearby Independence Square.
“How can they expect us to stay silent?” she asked from the square, holding a yellow jerrycan and small tin-can lamp – “jiro-kapoaka” – items that have become symbols of resistance among the youth protesters.
“We fetch water in the dark, we sleep through power cuts, and they tell us to be patient? For how long?”
Since September 25, hundreds of protesters led by the “Gen Z Madagascar” youth movement have been taking to the streets of Antananarivo. What began as anger about the persistent water and power cuts soon led to general discontent and calls for President Andry Rajoelina to step down.
For weeks, angry demonstrators blocked roads with burning tyres and rocks, and in response, police fired rubber bullets, stun grenades, and tear gas.
At least 22 people have died and dozens of others have been injured, the United Nations says.
Faced with mounting unrest, Rajoelina did attempt some changes last month, dissolving his government and promising to appoint a new prime minister. But delays, plus Rajoelina’s choice of a military general, sparked backlash among the youth who saw the appointment as a sign that the same political cycle was simply restarting in a different uniform.
This all culminated in the weekend’s protests, which were the largest recorded in the weeks of unrest – and where police once again cracked down.
Jose Raharimino is not a regular protester, nor does he see himself as political. But when the power cut out at his apartment on Sunday morning, he decided to make his way to Independence Square.
“I just wanted to document what’s happening,” the 31-year-old freelance photographer told Al Jazeera, a camera slung over his shoulder and a jerrycan at his feet.
“At first, I thought I’d stay on the sidelines – just watch, maybe take a few photos.”
On Saturday, an elite army unit once allied to the president, CAPSAT, defected and declared it would join forces with the protesters against the government.
As a result, the atmosphere felt almost hopeful early on Sunday – chants rising, people laughing nervously, the smell of fried “mofo gasy”, Malagasy local donut, from a nearby stall.
“We weren’t angry yet. We were desperate, but it felt like we were together in that desperation,” Raharimino said.
As the sun climbed higher, he began livestreaming on his phone. “I wanted people abroad to see this – that we’re not violent, just tired.” Around him, the crowd swelled: vendors, students, office clerks, mothers balancing babies and jerrycans.
“This isn’t political,” he told someone beside him. “It’s about survival.”
But hope turned brittle when the first canister landed. The hiss of tear gas cut through the chants. “At first, people didn’t move,” Raharimino said. “Then another one fell – and another.”
He watched as smoke spread through the crowd, stinging his eyes, his camera shaking in his hands. He backed away, coughing, but refused to stop filming. “You could hear people screaming – not from pain, but from anger,” he said. “Someone near me yelled, ‘Why are you shooting at us? We only came for water!’”
Moments later, the police line advanced. Protesters scattered through side streets, clutching jerrycans, hiding behind walls. Raharimino ducked behind a kiosk, helping a young man rinse his face with bottled water.
“It felt like 2009 all over again,” he said quietly, recalling the weeks of antigovernment protests that eventually led to Rajoelina taking power from democratically elected then-President Marc Ravalomanana through a military coup.
Sixteen years later, the military and government were in another standoff – with CAPSAT, which once helped Rajoelina take power, now helping see him out as its members squared off against forces loyal to the president.
Among the hundreds of people at the march on Sunday, some had been out in the streets for weeks, while others were newly emboldened by CAPSAT’s announcement.
Rajoelina, however, called the army’s move an illegal coup attempt and fled to an unknown location. By Tuesday, parliament voted to impeach him for desertion of duty.
Meanwhile, the military has now taken power, forming a transitional committee with the promise to quickly restore civilian rule in Madagascar.
The rapid changes came with celebrations in the streets, and pictures of soldiers united with ordinary citizens in the hope of building a better country.
But just below the surface optimism, many are still worried.
“I can’t just watch things stay the same any more. We’ve been stuck with the same problems for too long – corruption, poverty, no jobs, and no real change,” Henintsoa Andriniaina, 24, told Al Jazeera in Independence Square.
The entrepreneur from Isotry sells hand-painted tote bags online. His business depends on electricity – something he now calls “a luxury.”
“When there’s no power, I can’t print, I can’t sew, I can’t even charge my phone to post new designs. And when there’s no water, I can’t even wash my brushes,” he said.
“We’re not lazy youth shouting slogans. We’re people trying to live.”
He joined Sunday’s protest with a sign reading “Miala Rajoelina! Mila rafitra vaovao! Tsimbazaza miray!” – which means “Rajoelina out! We need a new system. Tsimbazaza united.”
“When I wrote that, I wasn’t just asking one person to step down – I was speaking for everyone who’s tired of this cycle,” he said. “‘Mila rafitra vaovao’ means we need to rebuild from the ground up: new structures, fairer leadership, and a system that truly serves the people. ‘Tsimbazaza miray’ represents unity – the youth, the workers, the vendors – everyone standing together for change.
“I’m not here for violence or revenge. I’m here because I believe Madagascar can do better if we dare to change the structure itself, not just the faces in power.”
Andriniaina thinks structural reform and accountability are essential. “We need leaders who serve, not steal,” he said. “Change means building systems that outlast people – transparent budgets, fair opportunities, and power that belongs to citizens, not to offices.”
In the middle of Sunday’s police clampdown, Raharimino captured what he could on camera before police seized his phone.
The square had turned into a haze of smoke, sirens, and chaos by early afternoon, which reminded him of the 2009 protests. “I was a teenager then. I remember the fear,” he said.
Hours later, he made it home with red eyes and shaking hands. “This isn’t about politics,” he repeated. “It’s about the right to live with dignity. The right to wake up and know the lights will turn on.”
Raharimino believes that truth and visibility are critical for change. “If we can’t speak, record, or show what’s happening, nothing will change,” he said. “Change begins when truth can flow as freely as water – without fear, without silence.”
In the shadow of a closed grocery stall in the capital sat Bako, a 56-year-old street cleaner who only goes by one name.
She was not part of the march, but watched from a distance as the smoke from burning tyres drifted across the skyline of Antananarivo.
“I’ve seen this before,” she said softly, her voice breaking. “In 2009, we shouted, too. My husband went to the protests. He never came back.”
Her eyes filled with tears as she pointed in the direction of the stadium. “Now, it’s the children of those who shouted before. And they’re crying again.”
Bako wiped her cheeks with the back of her hand. “I don’t blame them. I cry for them. Because they want what I wanted too – just a little dignity.”
As the day faded, the echoes of gunfire mixed with chants and the hum of generators sputtering to life in the distance. By nightfall, dozens had been arrested. Rumours swirled across the capital – of resignations, of tanks near the palace.
By Monday morning, it was confirmed: President Rajoelina had resigned. The military had taken over. Some called it liberation. Others, a dangerous replay of history.
“What happens next is uncertain,” Luke Freeman, Madagascar expert at University College London, told Al Jazeera.
“As far as the Gen Z protesters, who’ve set this ball rolling, it might well be that their egalitarian structure now plays against them because, in order to have political penetration, to get a seat at those discussions for setting out the roadmap for Madagascar’s future, they’re probably going to need to appoint leaders and spokespeople,” he said.
“They’re going from social human rights protests into the murky and dirty world of political negotiations. And for that, you need to be part of a coalition, and that’s where they’re going to have to fight for their right to still be part of this process.”
For young people in the streets, a better country with functional water and electricity services is “our right, not a plea”, Ramarimanana said.
Whether the military’s takeover will bring positive change remains to be seen. But for Ramarimanana, it was neither a full victory nor relief, as it has not yet brought dignity.
“We can’t dream of democracy if we can’t drink clean water. Change starts when every home has what it needs – not promises, but pipes that work and lights that stay on,” she said.
On the streets of Antananarivo, littered with the symbols of both defiance and despair, Ramarimanana looked down at her scuffed yellow jerrycan, still empty and waiting to be filled.
“We didn’t want power. We wanted water. We wanted light,” she said quietly. “Maybe now, they’ll listen. Or maybe … they’ll just forget us again.”
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Ashley Tellis, a United States government adviser and expert on India-US relations, has been arrested and charged with unlawfully retaining national defence information and allegedly meeting with Chinese officials, US prosecutors said on Tuesday.
Tellis made his initial court appearance on Tuesday. A detention hearing is scheduled for October 21, US media reported.
“We are fully focused on protecting the American people from all threats, foreign and domestic. The charges as alleged in this case represent a grave risk to the safety and security of our citizens,” said US District Attorney for Eastern Virginia Lindsey Halligan, who was appointed by US President Donald Trump.
So who is Tellis, what is he accused of, and what punishment could he face?
Tellis, 64, is a naturalised US citizen who was born in India. He is a well-known academic who has written and commented extensively on India-US relations. He specialises in international security, defence and Asian strategic issues. He has worked with and advised the US government on relations with India for more than two decades.
The US-based think tank Carnegie Endowment for International Peace lists Tellis as its Tata Chair for Strategic Affairs and a senior fellow. According to its website, Tellis has bachelor’s and master’s degrees in economics from the University of Mumbai in India, as well as a PhD and master’s degree in political science from the University of Chicago in the US.
According to an affidavit filed in the Eastern District Court of Virginia, Tellis is currently working as an unpaid senior adviser for the US Department of State. He is also a contractor at the Office of Net Assessment (ONA) within the Department of Defense (DoD). The ONA is an internal think tank within the Pentagon.
Because of his appointment to these roles, Tellis has had the security clearances required to access sensitive government information.
He served on the National Security Council of former Republican President George W Bush, who was in office between 2001 and 2009. Previously, Tellis worked as a commissioned officer in the US Foreign Service and was the senior adviser to the US ambassador at the embassy in New Delhi, India, according to the website of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Tellis played a key role in negotiating a landmark civil nuclear deal between the US and India in 2008.
According to a statement from the US Attorney’s Office for the Eastern District of Virginia, Tellis was arrested over the weekend.
Prosecutors claim he has violated 18 US Code § 793, which pertains to gathering, transmitting or losing defence information.
The affidavit states that he was observed via a surveillance video camera inside a DoD facility on September 12, using a computer and asking a co-worker to print documents for him. On October 10, he was again seen at the same building, taking some classified documents away with him.
Around 3pm (19:00 GMT) on September 25, Tellis entered a US Department of State building in Washington, DC and logged onto the department’s classified intranet system, ClassNet, which he used for around an hour. ClassNet holds unclassified information, classified information up to and including “secret”, and information that has distribution restrictions.
The affidavit claims that at 8:11pm (00:11 GMT), Tellis returned to the building and accessed a US Air Force document that was more than 1,000 pages long. He renamed the document and then printed sections of it. He placed sensitive documents in his personal briefcase and took them with him to his residence.
On October 11, federal authorities searched Tellis’s house in Vienna, Virginia and his vehicle. Classified government documents were found in his house.
The affidavit alleges that Tellis has met with Chinese officials multiple times in recent years.
It states that Tellis met Chinese officials for dinner at a restaurant in Fairfax, Virginia in September 2022. He is alleged to have entered the restaurant holding a manila envelope, which he did not seem to have with him when he left two hours later.
Tellis is alleged to have again met Chinese officials for dinner at a restaurant in Fairfax in April 2023. He and the officials could be “occasionally overheard talking about Iranian-Chinese relations and emerging technologies, including artificial intelligence”, the affidavit states.
Tellis is said to have met Chinese officials again in March 2024, when they were heard talking about US-Pakistan relations.
The affidavit adds that Tellis also met Chinese officials for dinner in Fairfax in September this year, when the officials gave him a red gift bag.
If he is convicted, Tellis could face a maximum of 10 years’ imprisonment and a fine of up to $250,000, according to the statement from the US District Attorney for Eastern Virginia. It added that actual sentences for federal crimes are typically less than the maximum punishment.
Tellis has long been a passionate advocate of strong India-US relations and a champion of India’s potential as a major partner for Washington. However, in his latest publication for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, published last week, he was more circumspect about India’s capabilities.
While the US has long viewed New Delhi as a strategic counterweight to Beijing’s rise, India has, in reality, failed to grow as fast economically as China has.
“While India has indeed grown in strength over the last two decades and has partnered with the United States in pushing back on Chinese assertiveness, the larger story is more complex,” Tellis wrote in a paper titled Multipolar Dreams, Bipolar Realities: India’s Great Power Future: “For all of its achievements, India is not growing fast enough to balance China effectively.”
Despite these shortcomings, Tellis argued, India has been “obsessed” with preserving its strategic autonomy, hedging its bets in terms of geopolitical friendships instead of firmly committing to the US orbit.
This is a mistake on the part of India, Tellis said. Instead, he argued, India – because of its relative weakness compared to China – will need an external partner to help it counter Beijing in the long run.
“The most obvious choice is the United States,” he wrote.
Despite a warm personal rapport between US President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi during Trump’s first term in office, US-India relations have faced challenges since Trump’s inauguration into his second term in January this year.
Early in the year, Trump hit India with a 25 percent trade tariff as part of his ongoing trade war with many countries around the world. In August, Trump doubled this to a 50 percent tariff, stating that this was partly in protest at India’s ongoing purchases of oil from Russia, which the US and other countries have sanctioned for its three-and-a-half-year war on neighbouring Ukraine.
However, if Trump was trying to coerce India into following US diktats, New Delhi appears to have so far resisted those pressures. India is continuing to buy oil from Russia. Its relations with China – especially frigid between 2020 and 2024 – have thawed. And New Delhi has tightened ties with the Taliban, despite the Afghan group’s pariah status in the eyes of Washington.
All of this is a marked change from five years ago. In 2020, India warmly hosted Trump. Later that year, India-China tensions reached a peak when a deadly clash broke out between their soldiers in the Galwan Valley in Ladakh, the first deadly clash in four decades. The two countries share a long, disputed border called the Line of Actual Control (LAC), over which both sides clashed. That year, India banned 200 Chinese apps, including TikTok.
In December 2020, India’s foreign minister said that the relationship between India and China had reached its “most difficult phase” in decades.
However, since late last year, India and China have tried to reset relations. Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping met in Kazan, Russia, last year, as their troops pulled back from their eyeball-to-eyeball border standoff. Amid Trump’s tariff wars against both China and India, they have drawn closer this year.
Earlier this year, Trump imposed a 145 percent tariff on Chinese imports, prompting China to respond with a 125 percent tariff on US goods. Both countries then agreed to two separate 90-day tariff reductions – in May and again in August – to allow for trade negotiations. But last week, Trump threatened the reimposition of an additional 100 percent tariff for Chinese products.
Meanwhile, China’s Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, visited India and met Modi and other Indian officials in August. In a statement after their meeting, Modi hailed a “respect for each other’s interests and sensitiveness” and “steady progress” in bilateral relations.
In late August, Modi visited China and held a bilateral meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. It was Modi’s first visit to China in more than seven years.