Donald Trump made a remarkable revelation in his first address to a joint session of Congress on March 4th, 2018, after taking office as US president for the second time.
He referred to the deadly Abbey Gate bombing at Kabul airport in August 2021 – which occurred as thousands of Afghans tried to flee following the Taliban takeover – and said the alleged perpetrator had been apprehended.
Pakistan, the nation he attributed the arrest to. “I want to thank especially the government of Pakistan for helping arrest this monster”, Trump declared.
For the first time in a US president’s tenure hosting a military chief from Pakistan who is not also the country’s head of state, Trump hosted Pakistan’s army chief Asim Munir for lunch on Wednesday at the White House. Munir is on a five-day trip to the US.
This is a significant change for a nation that Trump had previously been accused of providing the US with “nothing but lies and deceit” and safe havens for terrorists and which his immediate predecessor Joe Biden referred to as “one of the most dangerous nations.”
It’s a reset that experts say has been in the making for weeks, under Trump’s second administration, and that was solidified by the brief but intense military confrontation between India and Pakistan in May, during which the US tried to mediate a ceasefire.
Some analysts warn that Trump’s changing relationship should be seen as a result of his personal style as opposed to institutional policy.
“We are dealing with an administration which changes its tune by the hour. The Middle East Institute (MEI) senior fellow Marvin Weinbaum told Al Jazeera, “There is no process here.”
“One minute the US has no interest, and the next minute priorities change rapidly. You don’t associate mercurial and personal administration with traditional US foreign policy, he continued.
However, others point out that even the optics of Trump hosting Munir are significant.
Raza Ahmad Rumi, a distinguished lecturer at City University of New York (CUNY), said, “Trump’s lunch invitation to Pakistan’s army chief isn’t just protocol-breaking; it’s protocol-redefining.” “It signals, quite visibly, that Pakistan is not just on Washington’s radar, it’s in the inner circle, at least for now”.
Resets are made in the wake of regional crises.
The meeting between Trump and Munir came amid heightened tensions in the Middle East, where Israel has been conducting strikes inside Iranian cities since June 13. Israel has been the target of Iranian missile attacks in response.
The Israeli offensive – targeting Iranian generals, missile bases, nuclear facilities and scientists – has killed more than 200 people. About 20 people have been killed in the past six days as a result of Iran’s missile and drone attacks on Israel.
The Benjamin Netanyahu-led Israeli government has been urging the US to join the offensive against Iran, which shares a 900-kilometre-long (559-mile) border with Pakistan.
After meeting with Munir on Wednesday, Trump addressed the media in the Oval Office, saying that Pakistanis “know Iran very well, better than most people,” but that they are “not happy.”
According to Trump, however, the main reason for meeting Munir was to thank him for his role in defusing the May conflict between Pakistan and India, a confrontation that brought the region, home to more than 1.6 billion people, to the brink of nuclear war.
“I wanted to thank him for avoiding the war]with India, so I had him here.” And I want to thank PM]Narendra] Modi as well, who just left a few days ago. Trump, who is credited with having a close relationship with Indian leader Modi, said, “We’re working on a trade deal with India and Pakistan.”
“These two very smart people decided not to keep going with a war that could have been a nuclear war. Two significant nuclear powers, Pakistan and India. I was honoured to meet him today”, he added, referring to Munir.
26 Indian civilians were killed in an April attack in Indian-administered Kashmir, which had sparked the crisis. India blamed Pakistan, which denied the charge and called for a “credible, independent, transparent” investigation.
India launched strikes on Pakistani and Pakistan-administered Kashmir territories on May 7. Pakistan responded via its air force, claiming to have downed at least six Indian jets. India confirmed losses, but they did not provide specific figures.
The conflict escalated as both sides exchanged drones for three days and eventually launched missiles at military targets on May 10. A ceasefire was only achieved after a lot of backchannel diplomacy, especially one involving the US, was engaged in.
Trump reiterated his role on Wednesday. I ended Pakistan’s and India’s conflict. This man]Munir] was extremely influential in stopping it from the Pakistan side, Modi from the India side, and others”, he said.
India claims the ceasefire was the result of bilateral dialogue, despite Pakistan’s acknowledgment of US involvement. Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri stated on Tuesday that Indian PM Modi had spoken to Trump by phone to underscore New Delhi’s view that there was no US-led mediation between India and Pakistan.
Arif Ansar, chief strategist at Washington-based advisory firm PoliTact, said Pakistan’s military performance during the confrontation prompted Trump’s engagement.
According to Ansar, “it demonstrated that the country can outmanoeuvre a much bigger adversary” despite its political and economic difficulties. “This has led President Trump to engage with Pakistan’s traditional power centres based on core strategic interests”.
Opportunity to assert relevance
That engagement has a long history.
Pakistan’s relationship with the US dates back to 1947, when it merged with Washington in the Cold War. After the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, Pakistan supported US objectives there, and the two collaborated closely to support the mujahideen that eventually forced Moscow to pull out its troops.
Pakistan later backed the US “war on terror” that followed 9/11.
However, over the years, many within the US strategic community also started questioning Pakistan’s credibility as a reliable security partner, especially after 9/11 architect Osama bin Laden was found in Abbottabad, close to Rawalpindi, home to Pakistan’s military headquarters in 2011.
The strategic partnership has slowed even further since the Taliban’s resurrected in August 2021. Pakistan has increasingly turned towards China for economic, military and technological support.
However, according to Weinbaum, Pakistan has received a level of respect that the previous Biden administration did not.
Trump wanted “counterterrorism assistance”, Weinbaum said – and seemingly got it.
General Michael E. Kurilla, the US Central Command’s (CENTCOM) chief, detailed how that cooperation led to the capture of the alleged Abbey Gate bomber on June 10.
“They]Pakistan] are in an active counterterrorism fight right now, and they have been a phenomenal partner in the counterterrorism world”, Kurilla said, in a testimony before the House Armed Services Committee in Washington, DC.
This progress, including the arrest of the Abbey Gate bombing suspect, was made possible thanks to direct coordination with Pakistan’s army chief, according to Kurilla, who also oversees the US military’s Middle East operations, including Iran. “Field Marshal Asim Munir called me to tell me they had captured one of the Daesh-K]ISKP or ISIS-K] individuals”, he said.
According to Weinbaum, Pakistan has added “more goodies,” such as a trade deal without tariffs, an offer for rare earth minerals, and crypto, as the cherry on top of the bilateral relationship. Weinbaum previously served as an analyst for Pakistan and Afghanistan in the US State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research.
Pakistan’s assets are currently being offered to foreign investors, including the US and Saudi Arabia, and include rare earth minerals that are important for sectors like defense, robotics, and electronics.
Pakistan has also recently formed a crypto council and held talks with US officials to attract investment and partnerships.
Rumi described the Munir-Trump meeting as “historical.”
“The US wants Pakistan’s help in de-risking regional volatility without offering much in return. Munir believes that this is an opportunity to reaffirm relevance and possibly negotiate maneuvering space at home.
Transactional ties and democratic costs
Pakistan’s ties to the US have historically been largely transactional, particularly in terms of security. US aid and investment often followed Pakistan’s alignment with US strategic goals, helping build its infrastructure and military.
However, there has also been distrust in the relationship, with US administrations accusing Pakistan of being a victim of double-dealing while Pakistan claims that the US has abandoned its efforts to support them despite their best efforts.
Whether this latest engagement proves to be another fleeting phase or a more durable alignment remains to be seen, say experts.
The US has historically engaged Pakistan when it was necessary and retreated when necessary, according to Rumi, a professor from New York.
“Unless this relationship is institutionalised, beyond the security lens with which it is viewed, it’s another tactical romance. It may fade once strategic objectives are met or regimes change, he said, like previous quirks did.
Ansar added that Pakistan again stands on the brink of a major strategic choice amid the global power shift.
“Much depends on whether it leans toward China or the US,” he said. That decision is also tied to the evolving Israel-Palestine conflict and the role of Iran”, he said.
However, Weinbaum, a former State Department official, claimed that “nothing in this administration is permanent.”
“If Pakistan does play some role in the Iran crisis, they have could have more substantial meaning to these ties. However, it is necessary to be aware that this administration hasn’t yet resolved anything. It can change on a dime, at any hour”, he said.
Behind the scenes power
The military remains Pakistan’s most powerful institution, exerting enormous influence over politics and society.
The current government, elected in a contentious election last year, is widely regarded as second to Munir’s military leadership and has been in power for more than three decades.
This is in line with historical precedent. Pakistan’s first military ruler, Field Marshal Ayub Khan, had close ties with the US in the 1960s. Strong US ties were maintained by later military rulers, including General Pervez Musharraf in the 1980s and General Muhammad Zia-ul-Haq in the 1980s. All three were hosted by US presidents at the White House – but only after they became heads of state.
According to experts, Munir, who is only the second Pakistani to hold the position of field marshal in the country after Khan, reinforces the notion that Pakistan’s true power stillresides with the military despite the existence of a civilian government.
Still, CUNY’s Rumi said it was important not to “confuse symbolism with transformation”.
Anyone who supports democratic consolidation should be concerned that “this]Trump-Munir] meeting validates the enduring military-to-military track in US-Pakistan [ties].” If this is the” reset, “it’s one where khaki once again trumps ballot”, he cautioned, referring to the colour of the military’s uniform.
According to Ansar from PoliTact, the meeting negatively affects Pakistan’s civil-military balance because it revealed who continues to be the “real power bearer” in the country.
“In the long run, these dealings in the past have led to tremendous political, economic and security-related repercussions for the nation]Pakistan]”, he said.
