Islamabad, Pakistan – After three days of talks between Pakistan and Afghanistan in Istanbul, which were supposed to end a tense and bloody standoff between the South Asian neighbors, it appeared to have hit a wall in Istanbul on Tuesday.
Following a first dialogue round in Doha, which resulted in a temporary ceasefire on October 19 following a week of fighting that resulted in dozens of fatalities on both sides, the negotiations came under the auspices of Qatar and Turkey.
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The chances of new hostilities between them are high after their inability, according to analysts, to continue “last-ditch” efforts were said to be ongoing in order to pull the two countries out of a full-fledged conflict.
According to Pakistani security officials, talks lasted almost 18 hours on Monday. However, they claimed that the Afghan delegation had changed its mind about Islamabad’s pressing request that Kabul halt the Pakistani Taliban’s use of the acronym TTP. Due to the sensitive nature of the conversation, a representative, who spoke to Al Jazeera on the condition of anonymity, claimed that the “instructions received from Kabul” for the Afghan team were putting off the negotiations.
However, Kabul claimed that the Pakistani delegation was “not presenting clear arguments” and kept “leaving the negotiating table,” according to Afghan media.
Haji Najib, the deputy minister for administrative affairs at the Ministry of Interior, is in charge of the Afghan team, whereas Pakistan has not made its representatives known to the public.
In Pakistan and Afghanistan, recent cross-border attacks between the militaries of the two countries have resulted in the deaths of numerous civilians, soldiers, and civilians, and the injuries of numerous others.
Donald Trump, the president of the United States, addressed reporters on the sidelines of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN) summit in Malaysia earlier this week, telling them he would “solve the Afghanistan-Pakistan crisis very quickly” and have repeatedly sought credit for resolving global conflicts.
However, a long-term agreement appears to be challenging because of the two countries’ “profound mutual distrust and conflicting priorities,” according to Baqir Sajjad Syed, a journalist who covers national security and a former Wilson Center fellow.
Syed added that the Afghan Taliban’s historical grievances and Pakistan’s prior interventions in Afghanistan pose a political risk.
The main issue, in my opinion, is ideological alignment. Despite Pakistani concerns, the Afghan Taliban’s dependence on TTP makes it difficult for them to break away from the organization, he told Al Jazeera.
A dangerous friendship
Pakistan was once viewed as the Taliban’s primary protector throughout history. After the US forces were withdrawn, the Taliban’s return to power in August 2021 was welcomed in public by many Pakistanis.
However, relations have significantly deteriorated since the TTP, an armed group that emerged in 2007 during the US-led “war on terror” and has waged a protracted campaign against Islamabad.
The TTP opposes the annexation of Pakistan’s former tribal regions into its Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province and demands the release of its members who are imprisoned there. The two organizations share the same ideological stance, despite being politically independent of the Afghan Taliban.
Kabul denies that the TTP and other organizations, including the Balochistan Liberation Army and the ISIL affiliate in Khorasan Province (ISKP), are attracted to its accusations.
The Afghan Taliban have repeatedly argued that Pakistan’s insecurity is a domestic issue and have repeatedly argued that the TTP is a problem. Additionally, the Taliban have long considered the ISKP to be a threat.
In an interview from last week on October 19, Mullah Yaqoob, Afghanistan’s defense minister, reported that states occasionally used the term “terrorism” for political purposes. He and his Pakistani counterpart, Khawaja Asif, signed the ceasefire in Doha last week.
He continued, “Any government can brand its adversaries as “terrorists” for its own agenda because there is no universal or clear definition of terrorism.”
Regional powers, including Iran, Russia, China, and a number of Central Asian nations, have also urged the Taliban to oust the TTP and other alleged Afghan armed groups.
Amir Khan Muttaqi, the Afghan minister of foreign affairs, was also present at consultations in Moscow in early October, which resulted in a second-time appeal.
rising tensions, rising tolls
More than 20 Pakistani soldiers have been killed in recent days, including officers, in various attacks.
More than 2,500 deaths were recorded in Pakistan in the year 2024, and 2025 is on pace to surpass that, according to analysts.
Attacks have targeted both civilians and security personnel, with Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan serving as the most recent targets. Both frequency and intensity of TTP operations have increased sharply.
According to our data, the TTP has carried out at least 600 attacks or clashes with security forces in the past year alone. According to a recent Armed Conflict Location &, Event Data (ACLED) report, activity in 2025 has already far outpaced that in all of 2024.
According to Ihsanullah Tipu Mehsud, a security analyst from Islamabad, Pakistani negotiators must acknowledge that ideological ties between the Taliban and the TTP, making it difficult for the Afghan government to abandon the anti-Pakistan armed group.
Sami Yousafzai, a journalist who has long observed Pakistan-Afghanistan relations, concured, stating that the chances of a détente are now becoming less and less likely.
Both Mehsud and Yousafzai cited the Taliban’s history of sticking with allies despite mounting military and international pressure.
The Afghan Taliban held the same attitude toward Al-Qaeda in 2001, Mehsud claimed.
The Afghan Taliban are war veterans who can withstand military pressure, according to Yousafzai.
Diplomacy that failed
Both sides have engaged in diplomatic communication in recent months, which has been hampered by China, which has also mediated negotiations between Qatar and Turkiye.
However, according to analysts, Islamabad may soon come to the conclusion that it has few non-military options.
Syed cited Asif’s recent threat of an “open war” by the Pakistani defense minister, and said these remarks could indicate the start of targeted airstrikes or inter-national operations against alleged TTPsanctuaries in Afghanistan.
“With that said, mediators, particularly those from Qatar and Turkiye, are expected to make a last-ditch effort to restart the dialogue or move it elsewhere. He added that there is a small chance that other nations will join in, especially now that President Trump has made a recent declaration that he is ready to intervene and de-escalate the crisis.
According to Syed, a full-fledged military conflict might be avoided by implementing economic incentives, including aid, in exchange for adhering to the ceasefire provisions.
Trump has used this tactic in recent conflicts to stop fighting in both Thailand and Cambodia, among other tactics. Last weekend, the US president oversaw the signing of a peace treaty between the Southeast Asian countries in Kuala Lumpur.
unintended effects
The Taliban also has advantages, according to analysts, which admonish Pakistan against overconfidence in Islamabad.
Yousafzai claimed that military action against the Taliban could increase the group’s support in the country because of the country’s recent diplomatic relations with Pakistan.
The Afghan Taliban’s attack on the Pakistani military on [the] border was seen as a strong response, increasing their popularity. And even if Pakistan keeps bombing, it could still endanger innocent civilians, leading to more animosity and anti-Pakistani sentiment in the Afghan Taliban and the general public.
Yousafzai believes that Islamabad should be concerned about this situation, particularly if Haibatullah Akhunzada, the Taliban’s supreme leader, intervenes.
Many young Afghans could join the ranks of [the] Taliban if the Akhunzada issued an edict declaring Jihad against Pakistan, Yousafzai warned. The situation will not be good for Pakistan, according to the statement, “Even if it means a bigger loss for Afghans.”
