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Sikasso, Mali – The Kayes region, which borders Senegal and is vital to Mali’s economy, had remained largely untouched by the violence from armed groups that has rocked the country for several decades.

But that changed when armed men waged a string of coordinated attacks on military installations in several Malian towns last week, after which the country’s armed forces launched a counterattack that it said killed 80 fighters.

The uptick in violent clashes between armed fighters and the Malian army – who are being assisted by Russian paramilitaries known as the Africa Corps – comes as the country’s political future looks murky, experts say, with the military-led government seemingly determined to permanently extend its rule.

For more than a decade, Mali has faced rebellions from separatist movements and armed fighters, including the two most active groups – ISIL affiliate, the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS), and al-Qaeda-linked Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM).

JNIM claimed responsibility for last Tuesday’s attacks, which Malian officials said targeted seven major towns in the west and centre: Kayes, Nioro du Sahel, Niono, Molodo, Sandare, Gogui and Diboli.

The group did not list any human or material casualties, but its leader Iyad Ag Ghali said JNIM had taken total control of three enemy barracks and dozens of military positions.

At the same time, during the attack on Kayes town, three Indian nationals working at a cement factory were forcibly taken by gunmen as “hostages”, the Indian foreign ministry said on Wednesday, in an incident that could risk escalating the crisis beyond Africa’s Sahel.

This month’s attacks are also just the tip of the iceberg, as communities across Mali continue to be caught in the crossfire – at times to violent and even deadly ends.

Less than a fortnight earlier, on the night of June 18, areas in the centre of the country, including Diallassago and Dianweli, were the scene of attacks in which at least 130 people were killed.

Before that, on May 23, an armed group attack on the Dioura military camp in the Mopti region killed 41 members of the Malian army.

Foreigners ‘potential targets’

Security experts say the army is understaffed, despite the waves of recruitment drives over the last five years. This has left Mali vulnerable as it compromises efforts to rebuild military capabilities.

“The armed forces have shown a certain level of vigilance in the face of attacks,” said Moussa Dienta, who works for the Coordination of Associations for Peace and Development in Mali (CAPEDEM), a body that supports the country’s military transition.

He said that to support the army, communities in Mali should “make their contribution” by helping gather local “intelligence” that enhances their ability to do their work. “This will enable the army to remain the pillar of the nation.”

While some support the military’s efforts, others argue that they are not enough to contain the threat of the armed groups.

“No one is safe from the new terrorist threat posed by al-Qaeda and its affiliates in Mali,” said Jean Marie Konate, a community development expert with the Red Cross in the Kayes region, pointing to the hostage-taking of the Indian nationals last week.

“The assailants are determined to bite where it hurts, and foreigners will remain potential targets.”

India has urged the “safe and expeditious” release of the hostages, with its foreign ministry saying it “unequivocally condemns this deplorable act of violence”. It said its embassy in Bamako was also in close communication with the relevant authorities of Mali and urged all its citizens in the country to “exercise utmost caution” while there.

But some analysts feel more effort is needed. Defence and security expert Aly Tounkara, who lectures at the University of Bamako, believes embassies should take immediate additional security measures to reinforce the protection of their nationals.

“States seem overwhelmed and they are genuinely unprepared to prevent coordinated attacks. The threat stalks all states in the Sahel and beyond, and will certainly have economic and social repercussions in surrounding countries,” he warned.

Finding viable security solutions

The coups that brought the military to power under Assimi Goita followed mass antigovernment protests in Bamako, over the previous leadership’s failure to deal with advancing swarms of armed groups from the north.

While the military made security one of its top priorities when it took power, July’s attacks, like previous ones, calls into question the viability of the strategy the current government has in place, analysts say.

Experts are also divided on the best approach to rebuilding the national security sector, as Russian military intervention and joint patrols with the army in certain parts of the country seem to be showing their limits.

“It is clear that the military approach offers no lasting alternative or definitive solution to the crisis,” said Alkaya Toure, an expert and former technical adviser to the Malian Ministry of Defence under previous governments.

“What needs to be done is, to effectively combat the attacks, Mali should redouble its vigilance and strengthen its security watch … to be set for the long term.”

Security expert Tounkara is, however, not convinced this will be enough.

“I’m not saying this to frighten anyone. We are in a dangerous and vicious circle, and the attacks will continue in the long term. Those who are not aware of this should be convinced,” he said.

He feels Bamako’s current strategy to tackle armed groups focuses more on theory and political manoeuvrings than on localised dynamics and solutions.

“Pockets of insecurity can only be tackled through local approaches. This will inevitably require greater involvement of what I call the invisible players. Leaders cannot claim to be fighting terrorism effectively by excluding or marginalising the invisible players who are so key to stability.”

In its current strategy, “Mali is making the same mistakes as in previous agreements, offering the same diagnosis and the same therapy”, Tounkara said.

“We need to move towards contextualising security solutions.”

Uncertain political prospects

The system to rebuild security in Mali is taking on water, observers say.

With an operational strength of nearly 25,000 soldiers, the Malian army is struggling to occupy the 1,241,000 square kilometres (480,000 square miles) of national territory.

And the recent attacks are a further slap in the face, especially as they targeted a region the government may have thought was safe.

A military source close to the defence cabinet, who requested anonymity, expressed his dismay: “The recent attacks are not just a problem of inattention or a lack of vigilance, they are above all linked to the poor deployment of security throughout the country,” he told Al Jazeera.

“Since the coordinated attacks on Bamako on 17 September, 2024, efforts have remained focused on the central and northern regions. In the western region, the general staff have sufficiently reduced the military presence, overlooking the fact that the threat is omnipresent.”

As the violence between the army and armed groups escalates, the political situation in Mali is also growing increasingly tense.

In May, the military government announced the dissolution of political parties and organisations by presidential decree.

Then, last week, the transitional authorities adopted a bill granting a five-year presidential term of office to Goita, renewable “as many times as necessary” without holding elections.

Critics have decried these moves as restrictions on freedom to consolidate the military leadership’s hold on power in the country.

At the same time, Russian intervention in Mali – which observers say took place under conditions that are still unclear – has failed to stem the threat of the armed groups they are meant to help fight.

After the 2021 coup, Goita’s government distanced itself from France, its former colonial power, with French forces exiting Mali in 2022.

To fill the security vacuum, Bamako turned to Russian fighters from the Wagner mercenary group. Last month, Wagner announced its exit from the country, saying Kremlin-controlled Africa Corps paramilitaries would remain in their place.

But the Kremlin seems more concerned with the economic stakes of its partnership with Mali.

In June, a trip to Russia by Goita culminated in a series of economic agreements and conventions with Moscow. Energy and mining issues have taken precedence over security, observers say.

Meanwhile, for Malian civilians increasingly caught between the escalating violence, fear and uncertainty remain.

After the attack in Kayes town last week, a hospital source speaking to the AFP news agency said more than 10 seriously injured people were admitted to the medical facility there, and one civilian died.