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Islamabad, Pakistan – For the second time in three years, devastating monsoon floods have strewn a path of destruction through Pakistan’s north and center, particularly in Punjab province, submerging villages, drowning farmland, displacing millions, and injuring hundreds.

This year, India – Pakistan’s archrival and a nuclear-armed neighbour – is also reeling. Heavy monsoon rains swell rivers on both sides of the border, which has caused widespread flooding in northern states like Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and Indian Punjab.

Authorities in Pakistan claim that at least 884 people have died nationwide, including more than 220 in Punjab, since the monsoon season first started in late June. More than 30 people have died in Indian Punjab, compared to 100 on the Indian side.

Yet, shared suffering hasn’t brought the neighbours closer: In Pakistan’s Punjab, which borders India, federal minister Ahsan Iqbal has, in fact, accused New Delhi of deliberately releasing excess water from dams without timely warnings.

According to Iqbal, “India has started using water as a weapon and has caused widespread flooding in Punjab,” he claimed last month, citing releases into the Ravi, Sutlej, and Chenab rivers, all of which flow into Pakistan from Indian territory.

Iqbal added that India’s use of flood water was its “worst example of water aggression,” which he claimed threatened people’s lives, property, and livelihoods.

“Some issues should be beyond politics, and water cooperation must be one of them”, the minister said on August 27, while he participated in rescue efforts in Narowal city, his constituency that borders India.

The two countries’ growing tensions, as well as the collapse of a six-decade-old agreement that allowed them to share waters for rivers that both countries rely on, are at the center of those accusations.

However, experts contend that the evidence is insufficient to suggest that India deliberately attempted to flood Pakistan, and that even if New Delhi were to consider doing so, there are the risks associated with such a plan.

Weaponising water

Relations between India and Pakistan, already at a historic low, plummeted further in April after the Pahalgam attack, in which gunmen killed 26 civilians in Indian-administered Kashmir. India canceled the Transboundary Agreement that governs the Indus Basin’s six rivers, the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), leaving the country.

Pakistan refuted claims that it was involved in the Pahalgam attack in any way. But in early May, the neighbours waged a&nbsp, four-day conflict, targeting each other’s military bases with missiles and drones in the gravest military escalation between them in almost three decades.

The two nations were required to regularly exchange detailed water-flow data under the IWT. Fears have risen in recent months that New Delhi might try to stop the flow of water into Pakistan or flood its western neighbor with unexpected, large releases as India ceases to adhere to the pact.

After New Delhi suspended its participation in the IWT, India’s Home Minister Amit Shah in June said the treaty would never be restored, a stance that prompted protests in Pakistan and accusations of “water terrorism”.

The Indian High Commission in Islamabad has shared several warnings of possible cross-border flooding on “humanitarian grounds” in recent weeks while the Indian government has not officially responded to allegations that it has chosen to flood Pakistan.

Water experts contend that Pakistan’s floods are primarily due to dam-building in India, which raises the possibility of obscuring the urgent, shared challenges posed by climate change and the ageing infrastructure.

“The Indian decision to release water from their dam has not caused flooding in Pakistan”, said Daanish Mustafa, a professor of critical geography at King’s College London.

The rivers in India eventually flow into Pakistan through major dams. He told Al Jazeera, “Any extra water that will be released from these rivers will have a significant impact on India’s own states first.”

Shared monsoon strain

In the Himalayan and Karakoram ranges, glaciers provide food for both Pakistan and India. The Indus River basin provides life to Pakistan. It supplies water to most of the country’s roughly 250 million people and underpins its agriculture.

India controls the three eastern rivers, Ravi, Sutlej, and Beas, while Pakistan controls the three western rivers, Jhelum, Chenab, and Indus.

India is obligated to allow waters of the western rivers to flow into Pakistan with limited exceptions, and to provide timely, detailed hydrological data.

The rivers it controls have seen a significant drop in the flow of the Ravi and Sutlej into Pakistan thanks to India’s construction of dams on the eastern ones. As long as the volume of water entering Pakistan is not impacted by it building dams on some of the western rivers, it is permitted to do so under the terms of the treaty.

But melting glaciers and an unusually intense summer monsoon pushed river levels on both sides of the border dangerously high this year.

In Pakistan, heavy rains and glacial outbursts caused levels in western rivers to rise, while rising flows severely damaged infrastructure on India’s eastern rivers.

According to Mustafa of King’s College, dams are typically designed to last about 100 years, just like other infrastructure is designed to have a safe capacity of water. But climate change has dramatically altered the average rainfall that might have been taken into account while designing these projects.

He claimed that the dams’ construction parameters are now meaningless and obsolete. Water must be released when dam capacity exceeds dam capacity, or the entire structure will be in danger of being destroyed.

Among the major dams upstream in Indian territory are Salal and Baglihar on the Chenab, Pong on the Beas, Bhakra on the Sutlej, and Ranjit Sagar (also known as Thein) on the Ravi.

With vast areas of  Indian territory between them and the border, these dams are located in Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir, Punjab, and Himachal Pradesh.

A former Pakistani representative on the bilateral commission tasked with monitoring the implementation of the pact, Shiraz Memon, said that it makes no sense to blame India for the flooding in Pakistan.

“Instead of acknowledging that India has shared warnings, we are blaming them of water terrorism. By the end of August, reservoirs across the region were full, according to Memon, adding that it is a simple, natural flood phenomenon.

Spillways had to be opened for downstream releases because the water was running out. This is a natural solution as there is no other option available”, he told Al Jazeera.

Politics of blame

According to September 3 data on India’s Central Water Commission website, at least a dozen sites face a “severe” flood situation, and another 19 are above normal flood levels.

The Indian High Commission’s message announcing a “high flood” on the Sutlej and Tawi rivers was referenced in a notification from Pakistan’s Ministry of Water Resources the same day.

India issued its fourth notice of this nature after three earlier warnings last week, but none of them contained detailed hydrological information.

Pakistan’s Meteorological Department, in a report on September 4, said on the Pakistani side, two sites on the Sutlej and Ravi faced “extremely high” flood levels, while two other sites on the Ravi and Chenab saw “very high” levels.

In a powerful monsoon, the volume of water frequently exceeds the capacity of any single dam or barrage. According to experts, controlled releases have become a necessary but dangerous component of flood control on both sides of the border.

They added that while the IWT obliged India to alert Pakistan to abnormal flows, Pakistan also needs better monitoring and real-time data systems rather than relying solely on diplomatic exchanges.

According to experts, the blame game can have short-term political effects on both sides, especially after the May conflict.

For India, halting the agreement serves as a strong defense of what it perceives as Pakistan’s state-sponsored terrorism. For Pakistan, blaming India can provide a political scapegoat that distracts from domestic failures in flood mitigation and governance.

Rivers are “living, breathing things,” they say. They always make the move because of this. You cannot control the flood, especially a high or severe flood”, academic Mustafa said.