Seoul, South Korea – In their first official meeting since 2019, Washington and Beijing appear to be on the verge of a truce to lower the tempo of their fierce rivalry.
However, expectations are modest for how far any deal will go in resolving the numerous issues between the world’s two largest economies, despite Trump and Xi being widely anticipated to ease US-China tensions in South Korea on Thursday.
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Instead of reversing the trade war that Trump started during his first term and has dramatically expanded since he returned to office this year, many details of the anticipated deal have been raised in advance.
Some of the proposed measures address issues that have only been addressed in recent weeks, such as China’s plan to impose strict export restrictions on rare earths starting December 1.
There is no denying that Washington and Beijing will continue to argue over everything as they battle for control in a rapidly changing international order, according to analysts, whatever Trump and Xi decide on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Gyeongju.
Deborah Elms, the head of trade policy at the Hinrich Foundation in Singapore, said, “I have modest expectations for this meeting.”
No matter what happens this week, “I believe we haven’t seen the end of economic tensions, tariff threats, export controls, restrictions, and the use of unusual levers like digital rules,” Elms, according to Al Jazeera.
Contours of a deal
Trump and Xi are still deciding any deal’s exact terms, but details have changed recently as to what terms might be agreed upon.
This week, US Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent claimed in media interviews that Trump’s threatened 100 percent tariff on Chinese goods was “in effect off the table” and that he anticipated China to ease its restrictions on rare earths.
Bessent added that he anticipated the Chinese government would agree to bolster US-grown soya beans, strengthen cooperation with the US to stop the flow of fentanyl-producing chemicals, and approve a finalized TikTok deal.
A deal in this area would remove a number of tariffs, sanctions, and export controls that would otherwise exacerbate US-China ties and prevent trade and business between the parties.
The average US duty on Chinese goods has increased by more than 55% since Washington and Beijing’s partial truce in their tit-for-tat tariff negotiations in May, while the average US levy on Chinese goods has remained at about 32%.
Washington has prohibited the export of cutting-edge chips and other key AI manufacturing equipment, blacklisting hundreds of Chinese businesses that are perceived to pose risks to national security.
China has since added dozens of US businesses to its “unreliable entity” list, launched antitrust investigations into Nvidia and Qualcomm, and slowed the exports of more than a dozen rare earths and metallic elements, including gallium and dysprosium, among others.
Since Trump’s re-emergence in the White House, US-China trade has drastically decreased.
In September, China’s exports to the US decreased by 27 percent, marking its sixth consecutive month of decline. However, as shipments increased overall as a result of expanding trade with Southeast Asia, Latin America, Europe, and Africa, the overall trend increased.
The imports of US goods by China decreased by 16%, continuing the downward trend since April.
According to Wang Wen, dean of the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China in Beijing, “the structural contradictions between China and the United States have not been resolved,” there will continue to be friction and “even worse” relations between the superpowers in the future.
Wang told Al Jazeera, “The most important thing is that China’s strength is growing and will surpass that of the United States in the future.”
De-escalation is “improbable.”
The “bulk” of the agreement between Trump and Xi, according to Shan Guo, a partner with Shanghai-based Hutong Research, is intended to avoid escalation. Given the political climate in the US, Guo told Al Jazeera, “A fundamental de-escalation is unlikely.”
Washington and Beijing could put their differences aside for longer than previous trade agreements, Guo said, because the US will soon have no choice but to supply Chinese rare earths and minerals.
He claimed that this reduces the risk of negative effects on US-China relations for at least a year or even longer.
Although he is optimistic that the summit will lead to “positive tactical results,” it won’t mean the end of the trade war, according to Dennis Wilder, a professor at Georgetown University who worked on China for the CIA and the White House’s National Security Council.
Wilder told Al Jazeera, “A comprehensive trade agreement is still not possible.
If and when President Trump travels to China next year, Büstent and his Chinese counterpart will continue to negotiate in hopes of reaching a more fruitful agreement.
Trump and Xi’s signature phrase on the US-China relationship itself emphasizes the conflict.
Trump frequently criticizes China for “ripping off” the US, but Xi has repeatedly urged that mutual respect and “win-win cooperation” rule over how their relations are structured.
Wang of Renmin University said, “The United States should treat China in a manner that China considers respectful.”
Source: Aljazeera
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