Are Chelsea genuine title contenders?

Chelsea will be just three points adrift of their London rivals if they defeat league leaders Arsenal on Sunday at Stamford Bridge.

Can Enzo Maresca’s side win this season’s Premier League against the odds?

Arsenal, who have lost the last 16 games to Liverpool on August 31, are currently unbeaten after 16 games as they attempt to end their 21-year Premier League title drought.

Chelsea are now feeling confident and on their own six-game unbeaten run following their 3-0 victory at home to Barcelona on Tuesday.

Chelsea manager Enzo Maresca responded to a question about the significance of a win on Sunday, saying, “We still have five or six months to go.” Where we are in February or March will be crucial, we’ll see when.

Chelsea are playing well enough to be champions, to put it simply.

Chelsea’s attack is comparable to Arsenal’s, even though Cole Palmer missed more than two months with an injury.

However, Arsenal’s incredible defensive stats set them apart.

In the past, a team needed to create significantly more chances than they did concede on a regular basis to win the title. This is done by averaging a + 1 non-penalty expected goals (npXG) difference per game.

Only Arsenal has managed to maintain that level of consistency this year, with Chelsea needing to develop defensively.

After defeating Liverpool, Tottenham, and Barcelona this term, Spain’s left-back Marc Cucurella expressed concern about their inconsistency with less powerful opposition.

The defender remarked, “I believe we lost points against teams you expect to win this season.”

Interesting: Under Jose Mourinho’s leadership, Arsenal’s exceptional defense threatens Chelsea’s record for the most clean sheets (25) and fewest goals conceded (15) in a Premier League campaign.

You can tell that they don’t concede goals, Maresca said. They are therefore the team to beat because they are the best team defensively and top of the league and Champions League.

Both teams play high pressing and a patient possession style, which is obvious stylistically.

The quality of the set pieces is another important factor. With 10 goals in 12 games and the highest overall average of 7.88, Arsenal are the league’s best attacking set-piece team. Conversely, Chelsea has the fourth-highest xG at 5.44 and is second with eight set-piece goals.

Arsenal has the second-best xG against (2. 10) in such situations, while Chelsea has the second-worst xG (6.40), despite conceding three more set-piece goals than Chelsea (33). Even though it improved last year, Arsenal’s game may still be causing trouble.

Based on their underlying statistics, Chelsea are unquestionably in the top four.

Despite dealing with the long-term injury that cost them the loss of crucial defender Levi Colwill, Chelsea’s defense is stronger this term.

The Italian appears more optimistic this time around after Maresca claimed his team were “not ready” to win the Premier League at this point last season despite supporters yelling “We’ve got our Chelsea back.”

The 45-year-old said, “For sure, it’s different than it was a year ago because we spent a second year together.

“Although it’s already November, it’s still very early. In March or April, it’s crucial to observe where we are. These players repeatedly demonstrated their ability to defeat[top] teams in their 18 months of playing together.

Maresca will try to avoid the same subpar winter run that almost cost his team last year’s Champions League qualification.

He did not consider qualification to be a requirement in 2024 or 2025, but it is in this season, with his manager’s future being evaluated at the end of the campaign.

Despite this, Chelsea’s management would consider any title challenge to be made this year to be ahead of schedule. During a sluggish first season, they only had to give Maresca a vote of confidence.

Chelsea was questioned at the time about their excessive rotation or age.

Following Colwill’s comments after Chelsea won the Conference League and Club World Cup at the end of last season, striker Liam Delap made the suggestion that he thought Chelsea could win either the Premier League or Champions League on Tuesday night.

Although rarely revealed publicly, BBC Sport is aware that a number of other players believe Chelsea will score those goals this year.