Analysis: How is Lebanon’s Hezbollah regrouping after war with Israel?

Hassan Nasrallah was killed by Israel, and according to reports, Hezbollah, the Lebanese organization he led, is now disbanding.

Analysts believe that while a weakened Hezbollah can no longer pose a significant threat to Israel, it can still create chaos and challenge opponents domestically as it tries to find a political footing to preserve its clout.

Long viewed as the strongest nonstate armed actor in the region, Hezbollah found its star waning in the past year, culminating in an international and domestic push for it to disarm entirely.

According to experts, unrestrained pressures on the organization could cause it to launch a retaliation and cause internal conflict that would outweigh regional and international pressures.

As its current leader, Naim Qassem, reiterated on Saturday to a crowd of thousands who had gathered at Nasrallah’s tomb to pay tribute to the assassination, Hezbollah’s rhetoric is still defiant and has promised to reject Lebanese government efforts to disarm it.

“We will never abandon our weapons, nor will we relinquish them”, he said to the crowd, adding that Hezbollah would continue to “confront any project that serves Israel”.

Still no movement

On October 8, 2023, Hezbollah and Israel began conducting trade and fighting in Gaza. This continued until September 2024 when an Israeli military intensification and subsequent invasion killed about 4, 000 people in Lebanon, injured thousands more and displaced hundreds of thousands.

By the time a ceasefire was declared on November 27, Israel was executing a large portion of Hezbollah’s senior military leaders, including Nasrallah, the organization’s secretary-general.

According to diplomatic sources who had knowledge of the ceasefire, the terms of the agreement had been ambiguous, but it was generally accepted that both sides would stop fighting and that Hezbollah would disarm in southern Lebanon and that Israel would withdraw its forces from the south. But soon after, Israel and the United States argued that Hezbollah must disarm entirely.

Hezbollah’s regional and domestic rivals began calling on the organization to give up its weapons as the country’s neighbors began to see its weakening. Many of Hezbollah’s domestic allies jumped ship and endorsed full disarmament as a result of the changing regional winds.

The Lebanese government, under pressure from the US and Israel, announced on September 5 that the Lebanese armed forces have been tasked with forming a plan to disarm Hezbollah.

Israel has continued to violate the ceasefire by bombing southern Lebanon in the interim. Israel is continuing to violate this ceasefire agreement, according to UN peacekeeping force in the south, including air and drone strikes on Lebanese territory.

Despite media speculation that Hezbollah is regrouping in southern Lebanon, particularly in anti-Hezbollah media outlets, it has only claimed one attack since the ceasefire was announced in November.

According to analysts, Hezbollah is no longer a threat to Israel, which would mean that any decision by it to launch attacks in Lebanon would be based on factors other than Hezbollah’s capabilities.

Hezbollah and its supporters contend that the need for resistance is based on Israel’s repeated violations and threats as well as its continued occupation of five Lebanese territories.

“The continued existence of a real threat justifies the maintenance of deterrence and defence capabilities because deterrence is not a one-time event but rather a cumulative process that requires a stable and integrated power structure within a broader political context”, Ali Haidar, a columnist with the pro-Hezbollah newspaper Al-Akhbar, wrote recently.

Before publication, Al Jazeera reached out to Hezbollah for comment.

What does the term “regrouping” mean?

“No military or political military force]will not] regroup after suffering a major defeat as]Hezbollah] did last year”, Michael Young, a Lebanese analyst and writer, said.

“But are they positioned to launch rockets and bomb northern Israel along the border?” No . Are they in a position to fire missiles at towns and cities? No .

What does [regrouping] actually mean?

Lebanese political scientist Imad Salamey told Al Jazeera:” Hezbollah is significantly degraded – leadership attrition,]communications] penetrations and blows to command and control have been real. A smaller, less expensive, and more agile Hezbollah is the only option they have left.

According to Salamey, “Israeli assessments themselves point to both the harm done and Hezbollah’s self-renewal efforts through smuggling/self-production under intense intelligence pressure,” any rebound will likely be tactical rather than structural in the near future.

In early December, the regime of Hezbollah ally Bashar al-Assad was toppled in Syria, another blow to the group, as it cut off a direct land route for weapons and financing to reach the group from Iran.

Analysts claim that Hezbollah has been attempting to use its remaining influence through diplomacy, even sending signals to its long-standing foes like Saudi Arabia.

In a speech on September 19, Qassem stated, “We assure you that the arms of the resistance are pointed at the Israeli enemy, not at Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, or any other place or entity in the world.”

The message to Saudi Arabia, which has previously funded Hezbollah’s opponents in Lebanon, is part of a shift in the group’s strategy, analysts said.

There is a tinge that they believe they have political acumen, Young said. If they can get more out of the system, they might feel like they don’t need to use force or weapons.

It is also a reflection of the new political reality in Lebanon and the region, where Israel and the US have ascended in power and Iran, Hezbollah’s close ally, has faltered.

Lebanese political analyst Karim Emile Bitar told Al Jazeera that “Hezbollah is starting to realize that it is entrapped.”

Hezbollah had the ability to form or dismantle governments before the war. But President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam were elected in early 2025 despite neither being Hezbollah’s preferred candidate.

Hezbollah either refused to or was unable to halt Salam’s government’s formation. According to analysts, the group desperately needs foreign aid, which the government could provide to aid in rebuilding its devastated neighborhoods caused by Israeli attacks.

But that money has yet to arrive as there is regional and domestic debate over whether the government should receive reconstruction funds before Hezbollah’s disarmament and other banking or political reforms.

Due to the growing support for the Lebanese state, as well as the strain and trauma Hezbollah supporters and members experienced as a result of the war last year and the ongoing Israeli attacks on Lebanon, according to analysts and diplomats. Hezbollah is still capable of sprinkling tensions, but has avoided fanning any flames.

Hezbollah supporters gathered by Beirut’s waterfront on Thursday to pay tribute to Nasrallah. Supporters projected their late leader’s image onto the Raouche Rocks, defying orders from the prime minister’s office that banned the act.

Supporters of Nasrallah saw the incident as an expression of love for him, while Hezbollah’s opponents argued that the incident was a provocation. Aside from sporadic attempts to block roads that the Lebanese military quickly reopened, the group, which has threatened violence in the past, has largely avoided provocations since the war.

If Hezbollah is pursuing military regrouping, a senior Western diplomat with knowledge of the issue said, it would be more likely in the Bekaa Valley than in the south, where the ceasefire mechanism had been largely effective at supervising Hezbollah’s withdrawal.

However, according to Young, the organization does seem to be changing its political strategy, Young continued, noting that Hezbollah may eventually be looking for some compromises as a result.

He discussed proposals made by Hezbollah MPs Ali Hassan Khalil and Ali Fayyad in their subcommittees about implementing the 1989 Ta’ef Accord, which called for the transition of Lebanon to a non-sectarian system of power.

“Their implicit point is that ‘ If we implement Ta’ef in its entirety, then that can give us a greater role with better representation, and then we can talk about weapons, ‘” Young said.

Hezbollah should leave, right?

Amid the intensifying pressure to disarm Hezbollah, analysts and diplomats fear that if pressed too hard, the group could lash out.

The US has announced a $ 14.2% aid package for Lebanon’s military to aid in its disarmament, and US officials have been making more frequent visits to Lebanon, including those of Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, deputy special envoy Morgan Ortagus, and special envoy Tom Barrack.

During his late-August visit, Graham declared, “It’s time for Hezbollah to leave.”

But Lebanon’s military has rejected setting a strict timetable for Hezbollah’s disarmament over fears the tense situation in Lebanon could descend into violence.

And some parts of Lebanon, where the US is seen as using its military to bolster its military, have received poor reception for news of the aid.

“]The Lebanese army] will never serve as a border guard for Israel. Its weapons are not Hezbollah’s weapons, according to Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, a Hezbollah ally, and its purpose is predetermined.

Diplomats and analysts worry that a conflict between the army and Hezbollah could lead to internal conflict and possible division along confessional lines, as happened in the Lebanese Civil War’s early years.

“]Disarming Hezbollah by force] is the worst possible option, but obviously, this is how the Americans are increasingly pressuring the Lebanese government to resolve this”, Young told Al Jazeera.

Source: Aljazeera