All three promoted clubs to go down? The stats around relegation

There’s a pattern emerging in the Premier League.

For the past two seasons the three teams that have come up from the Championship have gone straight back down.

Will newly-promoted Burnley, Leeds and Sunderland buck the trend this term?

Points-wise, very bad.

Since 1996-97, when three promoted sides started playing in a 38-game Premier League season they have averaged 113 points between them.

In 2023-24, Burnley, Luton and Sheffield United set a record-low tally when they stumbled to a collective 66 points.

Two years ago, fans could have confidently predicted that at least one of the trio of newly-promoted teams would avoid relegation the following season.

Before the past two campaigns, the only other Premier League season where all three promoted clubs went straight back down was in 1997-98, when Bolton, Barnsley and Crystal Palace all faced the chop.

Even then, Bolton managed 40 points and only went down on goal difference.

Conversely, there have been four occasions where all three promoted teams survived.

For as long as there’s been relegation, supporters have been trying to predict the minimum number of points needed to avoid it.

So what should Burnley, Leeds, Sunderland and others be aiming for?

Traditionally, 40 points are said to be enough for Premier League survival.

That’s because only three teams have ever reached the 40-point mark in a 38-game season and gone down.

They are: West Ham with 42 in 2002-03, Sunderland with 40 points in 1996-97 and Bolton with 40 points the following year.

But, given all three of those seasons were well over 20 years ago, is it time to set a lower benchmark?

Over the past 10 seasons, the average points collected by the team in 18th – a total you’d need to better in order to stay up – has been exactly 32.

Tottenham finished 17th last term with 38 points but, because of the weaknesses of the promoted trio, they would still have beaten the drop with just 26.

What’s clear is that those coming up to the Premier League are finding it harder to be competitive, meaning those already in the division can do less to avoid the drop.

Over the past two seasons the best newly-promoted side has averaged 25.5 points while the worst non-promoted club has averaged 35.

Leeds and Burnley are two of the strongest sides ever promoted to the Premier League, and before the past two seasons history would have suggested they were almost guaranteed to stay up.

Nowadays, Championship dominance doesn’t ensure survival.

Meanwhile, Sunderland collected 76 points last term, finishing fourth and gaining promotion through the play-offs.

Seven of the past 11 teams promoted via the play-offs have gone straight back down the following term.

How each promoted side starts the season is one of the best indicators when it comes to survival chances.

Every promoted side over the past 10 seasons with 11 points or more after 10 games has survived, while taking fewer than that has meant an almost guaranteed return to the Championship.

It’ll be worth bookmarking this article and returning to it on 1 November. That’s when all three promoted teams should have played 10 matches – although fixture dates can still be changed.

Why are newly-promoted clubs finding it so hard to compete in the Premier League? Football finance expert Kieran Maguire says money is “certainly a contributory factor”.

“The clubs coming up do have a disadvantage,” he told BBC Sport. “Under the current Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR), if you’ve been in the Premier League for the past three seasons you can lose up to £105m over a three-year cycle.

“But, most newly-promoted clubs can only lose up to £61m over three years. It works out to £13m per season in the Championship season and £35m per season in the top flight.

“That £44m gap in budgets has created a new middle class in the Premier League of clubs not strong enough to compete for Europe, but also incredibly unlikely to be dragged into a relegation battle.

Jonathan Buchan, BBC Radio Leeds Sports Editor

Leeds have their own theory when it comes to avoiding relegation. Physicality.

That has been the word of the summer so far at the club, who have a strong internal belief that the difference between staying up and going straight back down is height, strength and an ability to win aerial battles in both boxes.

Leeds’ first seven signings of the summer have an average height of 6ft 2in, which gives you a sense of that thought process.

Realistically, they need the majority of these signings to hit the ground running to have any hope of survival, and their early recruitment will certainly help that.

However, they also need the other promoted clubs’ new faces to falter and an established Premier League side, or two, to have difficult campaigns.

Scott Read, BBC Radio Lancashire

The last time Burnley prepared for a Premier League season they’d just won the Championship title, and were comfortably the strongest side in the second tier.

They then spent around £100m in the summer transfer window and were still relegated.

However, despite relatively modest spending so far and losing key players from last season – James Trafford, CJ Egan-Riley and Josh Brownhill – I think most supporters will feel they probably have a better chance at bucking the trend this time around.

The likelihood is they’ll probably go down, but under Scott Parker I think they’ll give themselves the best possible chance to avoid it.

They won’t be distracted about an idea of playing a ‘brand of football’ and a ‘certain way’ because that’s how you need to be seen to be doing it.

Nick Barnes, Sunderland commentator for BBC Radio Newcastle

Eight years in the wilderness and Sunderland are now about to embark on their latest Premier League campaign, with the landscape of the league having changed dramatically in that relatively short time.

The gulf between the Championship and Premier League is at its widest

Now Brentford, Bournemouth and Brighton are the shining examples of clubs who have bucked the trend of yo-yoing between the Premier League and Championship, with recruitment models the envy of many clubs.

While Sunderland has its own model of sustainability with a heavy emphasis on youth and academy-grown talent, they have bitten the bullet and spent over £100m in the transfer market in a bid to stay up.

Sunderland is being reshaped and the owner Kyril Louis-Dreyfus has to be applauded in his ambition. The financial decisions this summer won’t have been taken lightly nor rashly.