Lee Jae-myung, the president of South Korea, will make his first high-stakes visit to Donald Trump’s closest and most significant ally in Seoul.
After a one-day meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba in Tokyo, Lee arrived in Washington, DC, on Sunday ahead of an official working-level meeting at the White House with Trump.
The two heads of state will hold their first official meeting.
Following a trade agreement in July, Washington agreed to reduce South Korea’s reciprocal tariff from the initial proposal’s 25% to 15%.
The meeting is crucial for South Korea, whose engagement with the Trump administration was disrupted by domestic political turmoil, ignited by the brief declaration of martial law announced in December by the country’s impeached former president, Yoon Suk-yeol.
The unwritten July trade agreement, in which South Korea agrees to buy $100 billion worth of US energy and invest $350 billion in US economy, will be the subject of discussion.
Trump has mentioned that the outcome of their discussions will be determined as to whether those staggering sums will be directly invested in the US or be expected from South Korean businesses.
Accompanied by first lady Kim Hea-kyung, Lee will lead a delegation formed by the heads of South Korean top conglomerates, including Samsung Electronics, SK Group, Hyundai Motor and LG Group.
According to the South Korean daily Maeil Business Newspaper, the four companies are the only ones known to have made a total of 126 trillion won ($91.02 billion) in direct investments in the US.
Lee and Trump need to be deliberate and direct in the discussions, according to Choi Yoon-jung, a principal research fellow at the Seoul Sejong Institute, because “South Korea is in a tough predicament in terms of trade with the US compared to the past.”
“It will be important for President Lee to explain how investments will be designed to serve US national interests and to remind Trump that the two nations are close trading partners who went through large ordeals to realise their Free Trade Agreement over two decades ago”, Choi told Al Jazeera.
The direction of the investment talks is likely to be “unpredictable,” according to Mason Richey, a professor of international politics at the Hankuk University of Foreign Studies (HUFS).
The White House’s investment portion of the agreement is likely to remain undetermined and subject to unanticipated adjustments, Richey told Al Jazeera. “Not only are the current 15 percent tariffs overwhelmingly likely to stay on,,” Richey said.
Shipbuilding is one area of Trump’s desire to play catch-up with China’s naval fleet, which is leading in terms of sheer numbers and is also developing technology, according to analysts.
A partnership worth about $150 billion to help rebuild the US shipbuilding industry would be a key component of the tariff agreement with Washington, according to Seoul-based officials.
To that end, after visiting the White House, Lee will head to Philadelphia to visit the Philly Shipyard, which was bought by the South Korean company Hanwha Group last year.
Additionally, according to analysts, South Korea has shown an interest in becoming a partner in battery production and semiconductors, two other industries where Trump has clearly set goals to increase US capacity.
According to Choi, the South Korean government is also willing to take an active role in the “modernization” of its relationship with the US, which might include making more money to protect the region’s security and development.
Another major discussion point will be Seoul and Washington’s defence posture regarding the growing threats from North Korea, as well as the development of a strategic alliance to address the changing international security and economic environment.
The demand for US forces’ involvement in the Korean Peninsula to change has been growing for years, according to Jenny Town, director of the research program 38 North at Washington, DC.
Town noted that this evolution was especially significant as China’s power supply increased.
“The Trump administration is focused on how to maximise resources for US interests and priorities, so it is likely that some changes will be made during this term”, Town said.
According to her, “a number of factors will affect how drastic or dramatic these changes will be,” including the state of the domestic political system in the US, which provides checks and balances for executive decisions.
A US Senate defense policy bill for the fiscal year 2026 prohibits the use of funds to reduce the number of USFK troops to the 28, 500 currently serving members.
“This makes it unlikely that there will be an immediate change in troop deployment numbers in South Korea”, Choi said.
The main point of contention will therefore be how to match US interests with the troops’ job assignments. I believe that Trump might ask South Korea to participate in the Taiwan-related conflict by playing a bigger role in regional security.
Financial negotiations between Trump and Lee may also tip into security details, as the US president has regularly called for South Korea to pay more for the US troops stationed on its soil.
Since his first term as president, Trump has called the same question.
South Korea also paid the entire cost of building Camp Humphreys, the largest US base overseas, located 64 kilometers (39 miles) south of Seoul, which is located at an additional $1 billion.
Trump has said that he wants defence spending to reach closer to 5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) for all US allies.
South Korea’s defense budget currently accounts for 3.5% of GDP.
Seoul and Washington have long been at odds with one another about the transfer of wartime operational command, which refers to the transfer of control of South Korean forces from the US to South Korea during the Korean War.
Under the Lee administration’s five-year governance plan, Seoul hopes to have the transition happen by 2030.
Kim Jong Un’s powerful sister recently dismissed Washington and Seoul’s stated intentions to restart diplomacy in order to end Pyongyang’s nuclear program. The Trump-Lee meeting follows this.
Kim Yo Jong said that Seoul could never be a “diplomatic partner” with Pyongyang.
According to Town, Kim Yo Jong’s statements had “interesting nuances.”
“Her statements did open the door for the US to engage North Korea in order to improve overall relations,” Town said, “though she did reject any kind of denuclearization narrative as the basis for negotiations.”
“Kim suggested that there’s a reason for two countries with nuclear weapons to avoid confrontational relations. This raises the question of whether the US is actually interested in establishing a different relationship with North Korea without imposing denuclearization, and how its allies would interpret such a plan, Town said.
In terms of influence and security, the possibility of “Trump bypassing Lee in diplomacy with North Korea” poses a significant risk for South Korea in the future.
In contrast to today’s lack of contact between Washington and Pyongyang, Trump’s first presidential term featured a suspension of US military exercises with South Korea and three separate meetings between the US president and North Korea’s Kim.
Trump might also have a reason to give Kim a US hand in the friendship process by pursuing his Nobel Peace Prize.
The president of South Korea visits the White House annually for 11 days along with annual, extensive, large-scale joint military exercises between the US and South Korea.
During a visit to North Korea’s most advanced warship last week, Kim denounced the drills as rehearsals for an invasion of North Korea and “an obvious expression of their will to provoke war”.
A North Korean missile base that is undocumented is located 25 kilometers (15. 5 miles) from the Chinese border, according to Beyond Parallel, a project of the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, which is likely carrying intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) capable of reaching the US.
Town added that this summit could feature Russia on its own.
“Lee may bring up the issue of how Russia’s relations with North Korea, especially their military cooperation, poses potential dangers to the alliance’s security interests”, she said.
Talks could be turned toward whether Russian President Vladimir Putin’s relationship with Trump might help to ease the situation, she said.
These international relations are strengthened by North Korea’s recent dealings with Russia, as reciprocal military exchanges for food, cash, weapons, and other goods have established a stable strategic partnership between Moscow and Pyongyang.
Furthermore, North Korea has shown an interest in strengthening ties with another of the US’s biggest rivals – China.
In the end, Choi said, “I believe Trump will keep making offers toward North Korea.”
