Archive June 23, 2025

Amid Israel’s ongoing attacks in Gaza and Iran, US President Donald Trump’s unprecedented decision to bomb three Iranian nuclear sites has deepened fears of a regional conflict in the Middle East.

Over the weekend, the United States military carried out its first known strikes against Iran since the 1979 Islamic Revolution toppled pro-Western Mohammad Reza Pahlavi.

Tehran has vowed to respond, prompting fears of escalation.

During an address to a meeting of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) in Istanbul, Turkiye on Sunday, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the US crossed “a very big red line” by attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities.

One way Iran could retaliate is to shut the Strait of Hormuz, a vital trade route where one-fifth of the world’s oil supply – roughly 20 million barrels – and much of its liquified gas, is shipped each day. That would lead to a surge in energy prices.

So, what do we know about the strategic passage, and can Iran afford to block it in response to the US and Israeli aggression?

What is the Strait of Hormuz?

The Strait of Hormuz lies between Oman and the United Arab Emirates on one side and Iran on the other. It links the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea beyond.

It is 33km (21 miles) wide at its narrowest point, with the shipping lane just 3km (2 miles) wide in either direction, making it vulnerable to attack.

Energy traders have been on high alert since Israel launched a wave of surprise attacks across Iran on June 13, fearing disruptions to oil and gas flows through the strait.

While the US and Israel have targeted key parts of Iran’s energy infrastructure, there has been no direct disruption to maritime activity in the region so far.

Still, even before the US strikes on Saturday, the escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran had sparked ocean freight rates to surge in recent weeks.

Freight intelligence firm Xeneta said average spot rates have increased 55 percent month-over-month, through to last Friday.

Who would need to approve the closure?

Iran has in the past threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, but has never followed through on the threat.

Iran’s Supreme National Security Council must make the final decision to close the strait, Iran’s Press TV said on Sunday, after parliament was reported to have backed the measure.

However, the decision to close the strait is not yet final, as parliament has not ratified a bill to that effect.

Instead, a member of parliament’s National Security Commission, Esmail Kosari, was quoted in Iranian media as saying: “For now, [parliament has] come to the conclusion we should close the Strait of Hormuz, but the final decision in this regard is the responsibility of the Supreme National Security Council.”

Asked about whether Tehran would close the waterway, FM Araghchi dodged the question on Sunday and replied: “A variety of options are available to Iran.”

In his first comments since the US strikes, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said that Israel has made a “grave mistake” and “must be punished”, but did not make any specific reference to either Washington or the Strait of Hormuz.

How would the closure work in practice?

Iran could attempt to lay mines across the Strait of Hormuz.

The country’s army or the paramilitary Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) may also try to strike or seize vessels in the Gulf, a method they have used on several occasions in the past.

During the 1980s Iran-Iraq war, the two sides engaged in the so-called “Tanker Wars” in the Persian Gulf. Iraq targeted Iranian ships, and Iran attacked commercial ships, including Saudi and Kuwaiti oil tankers and even US Navy ships.

Tensions in the strait flared up again at the end of 2007 in a series of skirmishes between the Iranian and US navies. This included one incident where Iranian speedboats approached US warships, though no shots were fired.

In April 2023, Iranian troops seized the Advantage Sweet crude tanker, which was chartered by Chevron, in the Gulf of Oman. The vessel was released more than a year later.

What would it mean for the global economy?

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Sunday called on China to encourage Iran to not shut down the Strait of Hormuz after Washington carried out strikes on Iranian nuclear sites.

Speaking to Fox News, Rubio said: “It’s economic suicide for them if they do it [close the strait]. And we retain options to deal with that, but other countries should be looking at that as well. It would hurt other countries’ economies a lot worse than ours.”

For starters, shutting Hormuz risks bringing Gulf Arab states – which have been highly critical of the Israeli attack – into the war to safeguard their own commercial interests.

Closing the strait would also hit China.

The world’s second-largest economy buys almost 90 percent of Iran’s oil exports (roughly 1.6 million barrels per day), which are subject to international sanctions.

According to Goldman Sachs, a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could push oil prices above $100 per barrel. That would push the cost of production up, eventually affecting consumer prices – especially for energy-intensive goods like food, clothing and chemicals.

Oil-importing countries around the world could experience higher inflation and slower economic growth if the conflict persists, which could prompt central banks to push back the timing of future rate cuts.

But history has shown that severe disruptions to global oil supplies have tended to be short-lived.

Before the start of the second Gulf War, between March and May 2003, crude oil surged by a whopping 46 percent at the end of 2002. But prices quickly unwound in the days preceding the start of the US-led military campaign.

Similarly, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 sparked a sharp rally in oil prices to $130 a barrel, but prices returned to their pre-invasion levels of $95 by mid-August.

Ukraine’s Kiev has a Persian word that many Ukrainians apprehensively.

The name of the triangular, explosives-laden, Iranian-designed drones that became a harrowing part of daily life and death in wartime Ukraine is known as Shahed, which was originally spelled as “martyr” or “witness.”

They are now assembled in Yelabuga, a city in the Volga-region of Russia, and go through constant updates to make them faster, smarter, and deadlier with every airstrike that involves hundreds of drones.

Their most recent Russian versions, which were later fatalized in Ukraine earlier this month, include two-way radio communication with human operators, video cameras, and artificial intelligence modules to better identify targets.

In addition to “Moscow” and “Putin,” the word “Shahed” will forever be cursed in Ukrainian, according to Denys Kovalenko, referring to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

After a Shahed exploded above his northern Kyiv neighborhood in 2023, Kovalenko’s face and arms were slit by glass fragments.

Shaheds make up the most recognizable and audible component of Moscow-Tehran’s military alliance, which is being tested this month by Israel and the United States against Iran.

Iranian-made ammunition, helmets, and flak jackets are other factors that the alliance has an impact on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, according to author and expert on Russia-Iran relations Nikita Smagin.

However, Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine took place in 2022, according to Smagin, who described it as the “peak of Iran’s significance for Russia as a military partner.”

The Kremlin has invested tens of billions of dollars in its shadow systems and military-industrial complex to provide chips, machine tools, and other non-waffen-related goods.

As Moscow supplied Tehran with advanced air defense systems, missiles, and warplanes, the flow of military technology frequently turned the other way, causing concern for Israel.

Shimon Peres, the then-Israeli president, stated to this reporter in Moscow in 2009 that his visit was intended to persuade the Kremlin to “reconsider” the sale of S-300 surface-to-air missiles to Tehran.

Iranians were expecting to receive Russia’s cutting-edge Su-35 jets earlier this year, but they were unable to land in Iran.

Russia’s ability to withstand Washington’s airstrikes and slow its advance on the ground has already been impacted by Washington’s arms supply to Israel.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the president of Ukraine, claimed on June 9 that the White House had decided to divert 20, 000 anti-drone missiles from Kyiv.

In televised remarks, Zelensky said, “We’ll have more losses without the United States’ assistance.”

The Kremlin “counts on this scenario,” according to analyst Smagin, and additional military aid bound for Ukraine may now be diverted to Israel.

The top brass in Ukraine are already alarmed by this potential distraction.

According to Lieutenant General Ihor Romanenko, former deputy head of Ukraine’s general staff of armed forces, “arms will go to the Middle East, so there are no illusions about it.”

He claimed that there should not be any false confidence in Russia’s ability to defend Iran.

Even though Moscow and Tehran praise their strategic partnership, there is no mutual defense clause in place.

Therefore, he said, it will be difficult for the Kremlin to launch a military operation similar to the Russian airstrikes against Syria’s opposition to back then-President Bashar al-Assad’s shaky regime.

Romanenko claimed that “they won’t significantly alter anything.” However, they will have enough for arms purchases.

Any arms sales may irk US President Donald Trump, who has shown unusual leniency toward Moscow’s actions in Ukraine as a result of his administration’s flawed peace negotiations with Moscow.

Some observers said Moscow’s criticism of Israeli and US strikes on Iran sounded hypocritical because its account of the attacks sounded familiar.

Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs&nbsp stated on Sunday that, “No matter what justifications are used to justify an irresponsible decision to ban missile and bomb attacks on a sovereign state’s territory, [the decision] rudely violates international law, the UN Charter, and UN Security Council resolutions,”

Moscow and Iran are competing for Chinese market share.

Russia and Iran compete for multibillion-dollar oil trade profits to keep their sanctions-hobbled economies afloat in a certain area.

Russia and Iran compete for China’s market, according to Smagin, and China will have to pay higher prices for Russian oil.

The Strait of Hormuz, a constricting channel between Iran and Oman that is entirely governed by Tehran’s “mosquito fleet” of tiny warships, accounts for one-fifth of the world’s oil exports.

If Tehran decides to close the strait to tankers, crude prices will skyrocket all over the world. Additionally, it would provide Russia with a financial gimmick that would allow it to fund the Ukrainian conflict.

And as Russia’s conflict with Ukraine results in the most damage to its reputation in the Middle East.

Russia suffers a lot from reputation because it runs the risk of not being viewed as a powerful country in the Middle East, Smagin said.

Washington’s focus on Iran and Israel could turn out disastrous for Kyiv if Tehran rejects Trump’s “ultimate ultimatum” to reach a peace deal.