As the region marked the fourth day of a complete shutdown on Thursday, with at least 15 people dead, including three police officers, in violent clashes between protesters and security forces, an unsettling calm hangs over Pakistan-administered Kashmir.
Dozens more have been injured on both sides as the standoff continues.
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The federal government has dispatched a negotiating committee that arrived on Thursday in Muzaffarabad, the territory’s capital, to hold crucial talks with the Jammu Kashmir Joint Awami Action Committee (JAAC), an umbrella organisation representing traders and civil society groups that has emerged as the voice of grassroots discontent across the region.
The JAAC-organized lockdown, which was led by activist Shaukat Nawaz Mir, slowed the progress of several districts of Pakistan-administered Kashmir’s (AJK) region.
Residents have been disconnected from mobile telecommunications and internet access since September 28 due to the government’s meanwhile imposed a complete  communications blackout.
In Muzaffarabad, the usually bustling markets have remained shuttered, while street vendors and public transport have vanished from the roads. The region’s roughly four million residents are uncertain because of the paralysis.
Authorities said in a statement that they were working to restore order, and that they were urging the public to refrain from being influenced by what officials described as “fake news” and propaganda being made available on social media as part of a “special agenda”
This JAAC-led protest – the third such major mobilisation in the past two years – erupted after the government failed to agree to the committee’s 38-point demands, according to the group’s leaders.
The local government of Pakistan-administered Kashmir and a grassroots movement that has repeatedly demonstrated its street power have engaged in an ongoing conflict for two years.
What caused the protests to begin?
The Kashmir valley is the picturesque yet deeply contentious Himalayan region over which Pakistan and India have fought multiple wars since both nations gained independence from British colonial rule in 1947. Both have control over the region, and China also has two slivers of the north. India claims all of Kashmir, with the exception of parts held by China, its allies, while Pakistan claims all of Kashmir.
With a population exceeding four million, according to the 2017 census, Pakistan-administered Kashmir operates under a semi-autonomous system with its own prime minister and legislative assembly.
The current unrest began in May 2023 when people first took to the streets to protest what they perceived as rising electricity bills. In addition, complaints about widespread flour smuggling and acute shortages of subordinated wheat supplies also surfaced.
By August 2023, these disparate grievances had coalesced into organised resistance. In Muzaffarabad, hundreds of activists gathered in September that year to formally form the JAAC, bringing together representatives from all regional districts.
In May 2024, protesters marched long distance towards Muzaffarabad, which was the movement’s first significant turning point. Violent clashes ensued, resulting in the deaths of at least five people, including a police officer.
The government awarded billions of rupees in subsidies to help lower electricity prices and lower flour prices, but only after Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif agreed to significant demands.
However, the peace was temporary. In August of this year, the JAAC announced it would launch another lockdown, this time broadening its critique beyond economic grievances.
What are the demands of protesters, and why are they unhappy?
The latest charter of demands presented by the JAAC consists of 38 distinct points. The demands range from changing the provincial legislature’s structure to launching major infrastructure projects, providing free education and healthcare, and introducing major infrastructure projects.
However, the abolition of what the JAAC refers to as “ruling elite privileges,” a demand that has also been prominent in other grievances, is at the top of the list.
The JAAC maintains that following the May 2024 protests, the government acknowledged that a judicial commission would be formed to review “privileges granted to high government officials”.
Two government-provided vehicles, personal staff, including bodyguards, as well as unlimited fuel for vehicles they use for government work are some of the benefits offered to senior government officials, such as ministers.
The elimination of the system of 12 reserved seats for refugees in the autonomous region’s legislative assembly is a second important demand that was first included on the JAAC’s list.
According to the JAAC, refugees and their descendants, who migrated from Indian-administered Kashmir after the 1947 partition, now constitute a powerful political bloc that has monopolised development funds.
Additionally, the charter calls for the end of all legal action brought against activists during the 2023 and 2024 protests.
Additionally, among other things, there are demands for tax exemptions and better employment opportunities.
Infrastructure development features prominently in the JAAC’s vision. Apart from an international airport, the committee has demanded new projects, including tunnels and bridges connecting the mountainous region to the rest of Pakistan.
An airport in Muzaffarabad has been operating for years and is still operational. However, in April of this year, Prime Minister Sharif formed a committee to work on reviving the project. Additionally, he gave orders to look into the viability of adding a second airport to Mirpur, the second-largest city in the area.
What is the government’s response?
The local administration has implemented a communications blackout and has ordered educational institutions shut indefinitely.
More contentious, it has demanded additional police forces from Pakistan’s rest of the country as well as paramilitary forces.
The deployment of paramilitary forces has been opposed by the JAAC. Mir, the JAAC leader, told reporters earlier this week that with local police already present, “there was no need to order paramilitary from mainland Pakistan”.
While there had already been a first round of negotiations, a new committee had just arrived in Muzaffarabad tasked with addressing the protesters’ grievances, according to Abdul Majid Khan, the finance minister of Pakistan-administered Kashmir.
We agreed on those when they started their protest last year, which was initially all about electricity and the cost of flour. But they also must understand that things cannot happen overnight, and they take time”, Khan said, defending the government.
Khan acknowledged, however, that negotiations have broken down due to the government’s agreement to most of the JAAC’s 38 points, including the elimination of the 12 reserved seats for refugees and the elimination of “ruling elite perks.”
The minister challenged the logic behind eliminating seats reserved for refugees, pointing to what they lost at the time of the subcontinent’s partition.
These people, who had left their wealth behind and immigrated from India to Pakistan, are now living in excruciating poverty, but JAAC believes it unfair to grant them a seat quota. Why did these people even go to the trouble of moving here if we don’t grant them the rights? Khan argued.
The minister is one of the estimated 2.7 million people in the area who immigrated from Kashmir that is administered by India.
Given that the JAAC’s earlier demands had been met, Khan also questioned the justification for new protests. He said that for many of the current issues, local authorities must seek funding from the federal government in Islamabad.
With already lower electricity tariffs, the population here barely pays any taxes. Additionally, he noted that the region has less than 5, 000 tax filers, which indicates that the government isn’t making much money.
What happens next?
The next round of negotiations is scheduled for Friday, with the government representatives and JAAC members holding talks after they were resolved on Thursday.
Both parties publicly declare their intention to engage in dialogue, but distrust is persisted on by repeated shuffles of promises and disappointments.
Despite the JAAC’s persistent protests, the government maintains it has met most demands and that constitutional and electoral reforms require legislative processes that cannot happen overnight.
Khan stated that the government would act quickly to restore internet and mobile services, which he said “had been curtailed due to the situation on the ground,” once significant progress was made in the negotiations.
