Russia on Monday announced it will stop abiding by a decades-old nuclear missile treaty with the United States, raising fears of the return of a Cold War-style arms race.
The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty, signed in 1987, had put a moratorium on the deployment of short and medium-range missiles between the world’s leading military powers.
US President Donald Trump withdrew from the treaty in 2019, during his first term. Russia remained part of the agreement until Monday. It had pledged not to deploy such weapons as long as Washington did not do so – though the US has repeatedly accused Moscow of violating the pact.
The Russian move comes days after Trump ordered the repositioning of two nuclear submarines in response to what he called “threatening comments” made by former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, currently deputy chair of Russia’s Security Council.
In recent weeks, the Trump administration has ramped up pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine. He has also targeted India with tariffs and threats for buying Russian oil.
Meanwhile, the US special envoy for the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, is scheduled to visit Moscow this week as part of efforts to end the Ukraine-Russia war.
So why has the Kremlin withdrawn from the treaty, and will it affect defence agreements between two of the major powers?
What is the INF disarmament treaty?
The treaty was inked by US President Ronald Reagan and Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev in 1987, ending the deadlock of the Cold War arms race. It banned possessing, producing or test-flying ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles with a range of 500 to 5,500km (311 to 3,418 miles).
More than 2,600 missiles from both sides were destroyed as part of the treaty that covers both nuclear and conventional warheads. It does not cover air-launched or sea-launched weapons.
Washington demolished 846, and Moscow 1,846 as part of the disarmament efforts.
What justification did Russia give for withdrawing from the decades-old treaty?
Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Monday cited the movement of US missile platforms in Europe, the Philippines and Australia as a direct threat to Moscow’s security.
“Since the situation is developing towards the actual deployment of US-made land-based medium- and short-range missiles in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region, the Russian Foreign Ministry notes that the conditions for maintaining a unilateral moratorium on the deployment of similar weapons have disappeared,” the ministry said in its statement.
The ministry said that Moscow would end the moratorium to maintain strategic balance and counter the new threat.
Medvedev, the former president, said the Russian decision is the result of NATO countries’ “anti-Russian policy”.
“This is a new reality all our opponents will have to reckon with. Expect further steps,” he posted on X on Monday.
Medvedev was also engaged in a heated social media exchange with Trump last week after the US president served an ultimatum to Russia to end the war in 10 days.
In response, Trump on Friday ordered two nuclear submarines to be moved to “the appropriate regions”.
The Kremlin has, however, urged caution on “nuclear rhetoric”.
“It is obvious that American submarines are already on combat duty. This is an ongoing process, that’s the first thing,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters.
“But in general, of course, we would not want to get involved in such a controversy and would not want to comment on it in any way,” he added. “Of course, we believe that everyone should be very, very careful with nuclear rhetoric.”
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov had in December warned against what he called “destabilising actions” by the US and its NATO allies.
Russia has also threatened to respond against a planned deployment of US missiles in Germany from 2026.
When did the US withdraw from the treaty and why?
The US withdrew from the INF treaty in 2019 during Trump’s first term, citing Russian non-compliance.
Trump had accused Moscow of breaching the treaty by developing and deploying the land-based, nuclear-capable Novator 9M729 missile system, dubbed SSC-X-8 by NATO. Moscow said the missile’s range (500km) was shorter than the threshold set in the 1987 treaty.
Trump had also cited the development of such missiles by China, which was not a party to the agreement.
Under former US President Barack Obama, Trump’s predecessor, Washington had moved to boost its military capabilities in the Asia Pacific to counter China’s military power.
But during his first seven months in power, Trump has largely been consumed by his tariff wars against allies and rivals alike. He has rolled back a steep tariff he had imposed on China in early April, even as a report by US intelligence agencies in March said that Beijing is now the US’s top military and cyber-threat.
And in recent days, he has turned his attention to Russia, trying to pressure it to agree to a ceasefire with Ukraine.
The West believes that Russia’s Oreshnik ballistic missile – which it fired in Ukraine last November – violates the INF treaty. The missile has a range of 500km (311 miles). Last week, Putin announced the deployment of the missile in Belarus, which shares a 1,084km (674 miles) border with Ukraine.
Russia also revamped its nuclear doctrine last year, formally lowering its threshold for use of nuclear weapons.
Which other disarmament agreements have the two countries withdrawn from?
The US and the Soviet Union – the two most militarised nations at the time – were engaged in an arms race until the collapse of the communist nation in 1991.
The two sides, however, signed a number of agreements, such as the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty and the INF, as part of arms control measures.
President George W Bush withdrew from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty in 2002, which was aimed at keeping Russia and the US from creating missile defences.
During his first term in office, Trump also withdrew from the 1992 Open Skies Treaty in 2020. Two years later, Russia followed suit, walking out of the treaty that allowed countries to fly over each other’s territory to conduct unarmed observation flights.
Which security agreements are still in place between the US and Russia?
The New START Treaty, which stands for “Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty”, remains the last major arms control agreement between Russia and the US.
The treaty signed in 2010 caps the number of strategic nuclear warheads the two countries can deploy. It came into force in February 2011.
Under the agreement, the two sides committed to the following:
- Deploying no more than 1,550 strategic nuclear warheads and a maximum of 700 long-range missiles and bombers.
- A limit of 800 intercontinental ballistic missiles in deployment.
- Each side can conduct up to 18 inspections of strategic nuclear weapons sites yearly to ensure the other has not breached the treaty’s limits.
But in 2023, Putin announced Moscow was suspending its participation in the pact, accusing Washington of non-compliance with its provisions and of trying to undermine Russia’s national security. That treaty expires next year.
