Will the EU ease Syria sanctions? Inside the bloc’s dilemma

In response to questions about the political course the war-torn country’s new administration might take, top diplomats from the European Union are scheduled to meet on January 27 to discuss lifting sanctions against Syria and reviving the nation’s struggling economy.

Two European diplomatic sources with knowledge of the ongoing discussion in Brussels told Al Jazeera that when the EU foreign ministers gather, specific sanctions will be put forth in addition to the gradual lifting of financial transaction restraints, including travel restrictions, Syrian oil and gas exports, access to&nbsp, infrastructure, and humanitarian assistance.

The United States eased some restrictions for six months earlier in January to facilitate the flow of some personal remittances, including some energy sales.

The EU is considering its own course of action. A flurry of EU officials have visited Damascus in recent weeks to show their support for the new interim government led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the rebel group that overthrew Bashar al-Assad. In 2014, the organization was subject to UN sanctions because of its ties to al-Qaeda. And in 2018, the US and the EU designated HTS as a “terrorist” organisation.

But even while reaching out to Ahmed al-Sharaa, Syria’s interim leader, EU leaders have issued warnings: They want the new Syrian leadership to form an inclusive government that respects human rights and minorities.

The 27-member bloc is unsure of the possible course of al-Sharaa. “It doesn’t look like there have been incontrovertible indications that everything has changed”, said one of the two diplomats, referring to HTS’s poor record in human rights. The EU criticized HTS’s “systematic practice” of torturing and killing civilians who reside in areas under its control in 2020, citing the possibility that their actions could constitute war crimes or crimes against humanity.

The diplomat added that the worst scenario would be lifting sanctions before the new administration would impose restrictions on women or minorities’ rights.

Al-Sharaa joined al-Qaeda in Iraq in 2003 and later established the armed group’s branch in Syria, known as Jabhat al-Nusra. In 2017, it cut ties with al-Qaeda and joined other groups in rebranding as HTS. Before the lightning offensive that put an end to the al-Assad regime in December, the group controlled the country’s northwestern region of Idlib, where it was estimated to have up to 30, 000 fighters.

The Syrian leader has repeatedly disavowed extremism. A moderate image, he has added, would help to usher in an inclusive government. According to experts, convincing Western powers to lift sanctions is essential for the new government’s success because initial euphoria following al-Assad’s ouster could open the door to hostility and hostility if economic relief is not delivered quickly enough.

The Syrian population is thought to be in poverty to the tune of 90%. The country’s gross domestic product (GDP) amounts to less than $9bn today, compared with $60bn in 2010. Most areas receive only two to three hours per day of state-supplied electricity. The new administration lacks the resources to tackle daunting tasks, including paying civil servants and rebuilding entire cities from rubble to laying out a roadmap for elections and guaranteeing warm weather in the winter.

“It is easy to fail the test – so many reasons for things to go wrong”, said Sultan Barakat, professor of public policy at Qatar’s Hamad Bin Khalifa University.

Sanctions that directly impair the country’s ability to recover, such as those that affect people who travel and are on vacation, should be lifted right away, with no strings attached, according to Barakat. Later, the EU might talk about HTS or individual restrictions.

“We can only judge by what they]the al-Sharaa-led administration] say and what they say is fine – now they]Western governments] can help materialise what they say into action or they can be suspicious and create obstacles for them”, he said.

Following Russia and Iran, Syria is the world’s third country with the highest number of sanctions. In the 1970s, the US added the country to the list of states sponsoring “terrorism” over its occupation of eastern Lebanon. In the decades that followed, al-Assad’s support for Hezbollah and his brutal repression of pro-democracy protests in 2011, which were followed by more than 13 years of war, were imposed a number of additional waves of restrictions, both from the US and the EU.

The US-imposed Caesar Act, which effectively outlawed states and private companies from conducting business with al-Assad’s government, is one of the most abhorrent sanctions. Exports and imports, infrastructure projects, and other financial support for trade were all subject to sanctions from the EU.

The US waiver and the EU’s proposal for sectoral sanctions may not fully eliminate the energy sector and financial transactions, according to Samir Aita, a Syrian economist and president of the French-based Circle of Arab Economists.

“You need to accelerate the process”, Aita said. He predicted that if the Syrian state and its institutions were functioning without the aid of NGOs, they would eventually replace it. With the central bank still under sanctions, the country risks turning into “a cash economy” which could translate into uncontrolled flows of money getting to different groups and militias, “and that means chaos”, he added.

Europe would find itself directly impacted by such destabilisation. There is a clear interest in seeing a stabilized Syria advance, according to Julien Barnes-Dacey, director for the Middle East program at the European Council on Foreign Relations. “The EU has been in the direct line of fire of the Syrian conflict in terms of migration, terrorism, and wider instability.

Since the start of the war, more than a million Syrians have sought refuge in Europe. And some European governments’ pledge to create the economic conditions for refugees’ return home could be a successful electoral stunt as anti-immigrant sentiments are rising across the board.

Source: Aljazeera