Will anyone deny Sabalenka at Australian Open?

Aryna Sabalenka is two wins away from continuing her reign of dominance at the Australian Open with a third women’s title in four years.

The world number one, champion in 2023 and 2024, has lost just one of her past 25 matches at Melbourne Park.

Having been denied a third consecutive triumph by American Madison Keys in the 2025 final, Sabalenka has not dropped a set on her way to this year’s semi-finals.

Across the sport’s two hard court Grand Slam tournaments, the two-time defending US Open champion has lost just twice in 45 matches on her favourite surface.

She is undoubtedly the favourite – but three fellow top-15 players are looking to spoil the party.

Svitolina, through to her first Australian Open semi-final at the age of 31, will hope to defeat Sabalenka for the first time since 2020 and reach a first career Grand Slam final.

Formerly known for her defensive style, Svitolina returned after having daughter Skai in 2022 as a different player, doubling her career total of semi-final appearances over the past three years thanks to a more aggressive approach.

“Since I came back after pregnancy, for me it’s been all about trying to find those opportunities to take the initiative and strike first,” Svitolina said.

Discussing how she will approach her meeting with Sabalenka, she added: “It’s no secret that she’s a very powerful player.

Big-serving Rybakina would appear to provide the biggest threat to Sabalenka – should they meet in the final – as the only remaining player to boast a positive head-to-head against her.

The 2022 Wimbledon champion has maintained momentum following a strong end to last season, which included victory over Sabalenka to win the WTA Finals.

Rybakina, runner-up three years ago, has won each of her past eight matches against top-10 ranked players – and owns the most wins on the tour since the end of Wimbledon last year (36).

“I still have a lot of things to improve but the most important is that I’m trying to stay aggressive whenever I get the chance to step in, maybe risk a little bit,” Rybakina said.

Pegula is through to her third major semi-final, with each appearance coming since she turned 30 in 2024.

Seeking to reach her second Grand Slam final after finishing runner-up to Sabalenka at the 2024 US Open, Pegula said she now feels well-equipped to handle the latter stages of tournaments after feeling “helpless” in past quarter-finals.

“I think I was happy that I was there and then put a little bit too much pressure on myself to get to that next match,” Pegula said.

“But I think I’ve become a better player and I just know how to be in this position more. I think I have more tools.

While results might suggest she has enjoyed relatively serene progress, Sabalenka admitted she was “emotionally all over the place” earlier in the tournament.

It has been an issue which has, at times, derailed her pursuit of the sport’s biggest prizes and she has worked with a psychologist to improve that aspect of her game.

Sabalenka lost two Grand Slam finals last year, first to Keys in Melbourne before committing 70 unforced errors in the French Open showpiece against Coco Gauff.

Squeezing through two tight tie-breaks against Anastasia Potapova in the third round was something Sabalenka accepted that she may not have had the mental resilience to achieve five years ago, when she would likely be “focusing too much on the way she feels”.

Even so, Sabalenka’s impressive level of consistency at recent major tournaments – she has reached the semi-finals at 14 of the past 17 majors she has contested – means she is at home at the business end of Grand Slams.

Not least when competing on hard courts, on which she has won her past six major semi-finals.

“It’s unbelievable what I was able to achieve. What’s really helping me to be there all the time is the focus that I’m having,” Sabalenka said.