Why is pro-China Maldives leader Muizzu seeking to mend India ties?

In an effort to repair ties that had been strained by Muizzu’s anti-India rhetoric during his election campaign, Maldives President Mohamed Muizzu called India a “valued partner” on his first state visit to New Delhi.

Traditional strong ties between the two Indian Ocean countries were threatened by Muizzu’s pro-China position and campaign to force Indian troops out of the archipelago. &nbsp,

The Maldivian leader, however, showed a willingness to engage with India after winning the election in late 2023, and he appears to have found a willing partner in New Delhi. “Maldives is India’s key maritime neighbour in the Indian Ocean Region”, India’s Ministry of External Affairs said in a statement announcing Muizzu’s five-day visit, which began on Sunday.

So why has Muizzu visited India, and what does it mean for India-Maldives ties?

What was on the agenda for Muizzu’s visit?

Muizzu received a warm welcome on the red carpet, and he met with senior Indian officials and Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

According to India’s foreign office, Muizzu and Modi discussed “energy, trade, financial linkages and defence cooperation”. Specifically, they talked about a free trade agreement.

After the meeting, Modi said India would help the Maldives develop infrastructure projects. To help the cash-strapped Maldivian economy, India approved a $400 million currency swap agreement.

This agreement, according to Muizzu, “will be very helpful in addressing the foreign exchange problems we are currently facing.”

The two leaders also reportedly set up a runway at the Maldives’ Hanimaadhoo International Airport.

Take a look at the list of outcomes of the visit: pic. twitter.com/LACeI9xdlG

The Maldives president is visiting India, but why?

The Maldives’ budget deficit and debt burden are present. With its foreign reserves declining by $440 million, it has the potential to default on debt repayments.

The Maldives, which heavily borrowed from China during former President Abdulla Yameen’s term, owes Beijing $1.37bn, according to World Bank data. Male’s major source of credit is also New Delhi.

Muizzu and China signed agreements on infrastructure and climate in Beijing in January, but he did not cross the bridges with New Delhi. Historically, Male has cultivated friendly ties with New Delhi. Yameen, a former ally of Muizzu, forged closer China ties and signed big infrastructure projects.

“Muizzu has been trying to better balance the relations between the Maldives and China and the Maldives and India”, Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Washington-based Wilson Center, told Al Jazeera.

Kugelman noted that Muizzu has continued to work closely with India in other areas, “especially when it comes to commercial and economic ties,” despite showing a desire to “increase ties with China, particularly on the defense side.”

The island nation’s tourism sector, which accounts for nearly a third of GDP, accounts for the island nation’s economy in large part. An abundance of luxurious resorts can be found on the 1, 192 islands in the archipel.

However, the economy was severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent strains with India. More than 200, 000 Indians visited the Maldives in 2023 – the highest from any country. But the numbers dipped by 42 percent this year, amid tensions following Muizzu’s election. India is also one of the Maldives’ main trading partners.

Kugelman said, “I think Muizzu recognizes that there can’t be any impression that he wants to withdraw from India and all of the crucial economic and development support that comes with it.”

What was the opposition’s ‘ India Out ‘ campaign?

The parties’ leaders, including Yameen, led by Muizzu’s People’s National Congress (PNC) and its ally Progressive Party of the Maldives (PPM), campaigned for the removal of a small contingent of Indian troops from the Maldives due to opposition concerns about the country’s sovereignty.

Mohamed Saeed, a senior leader from Muizzu’s PNC, said, “We are not against the people of India”.

The Indian military must leave, according to the people of our country. We are a very fragile country. When the “India Out” campaign was launched in 2020 under the leadership of pro-India Ibrahim Solih, he said, “We cannot afford to have any military presence of another country here.”

The two helicopters and one of the aircraft India had donated to the Maldives were being operated by Indian forces, according to New Delhi.

However, opposition parties claimed that the island nation’s government planned to build a permanent Indian military base. According to a leaked document that was made available to local media, Indian navy ships would use a dockyard run by India for the Maldivian coastguard for years.

The opposition questioned why parliament wasn’t hearing about such a significant deal. The government denied the accusation, which included accusing the opposition parties of “spreading lies” when they accused Sloh of signing a secret defense agreement with India. &nbsp,

“India has always been the Maldives ‘ closest ally and trusted neighbour”, a statement by the government said in November.

“Support provided by India, on areas such as search and rescue capabilities, casualty evacuation, coastal surveillance, and maritime reconnaissance, directly benefit the Maldivian people”, it said.

After Muizzu became president, New Delhi withdrew its soldiers and other support staff, but the Maldives and Male came to an agreement to replace them with civilians who will assist in managing the aircraft that India had given them.

What’s the larger geopolitics at play in the Maldives?

Indian forces have long conducted reconnaissance, rescue, and aid operations on Maldivian soil. In 1998, India sent its troops to thwart an opposition coup attempt by Abdul Gayoom, the president at the time.

During Solih’s presidency, India provided financial aid to the Maldives to help fund projects in the education, health and community development sectors, according to a bilateral brief on India’s foreign office website. In 2019, India provided a cash grant of 50 crore Indian rupees ($6m).

The strategically located Maldives, which is situated on one of the world’s busiest maritime routes, is a geopolitical battleground between China and India. China’s expanding military presence in the Maldives and other island countries like Sri Lanka is a concern for New Delhi.

India established a military base on a remote Mauritian island in 2021, according to an Al Jazeera report from the same year. In March, New Delhi constructed a new naval base on its Lakshadweep island, which is located about 130 kilometers (80 miles) north of the Maldives.

Muizzu’s trip is an occasion to reset ties and address New Delhi’s geostrategic concerns.

In a joint statement released on Monday with Muizzu, Modi and Modi stated that “the relationship between India and the Maldives is centuries old.” &nbsp,

Kugelman said India recognises that the Maldives is “a battleground for India-China competition”.

India will continue to have influence over the Maldives as long as its position is viewed as a crucial economic partner, especially when the Maldives are under economic stress, he said.

Will Muizzu’s diplomatic shift affect him back home?

So how will Muizzu’s diplomatic outreach to India be seen in the Maldives, given that he made the “India Out” campaign a major plank of his campaign?

“You have had some notable anti-India sentiment among the public in the Maldives”, Kugelman said. “Undoubtedly, his decision to launch his presidential campaign on a platform to remove the Indian military presence was well-liked and helped him win the presidency,” he said.

Kugelman said that “there are several factors at play that I believe will lessen Muizzu’s political suffering here.”

First, Muizzu upheld his pledge and expelled the Indian military from the Maldives. He also signed some new military agreements that immediately strengthened his defense ties with Beijing. These are things that the Maldivesans who were unhappy about the Indian military presence in the Maldives will have liked.

Muizzu never made a promise to cut back on India’s economic and commercial ties. He never made a promise to avoid speaking out against India. He never promised to essentially cut off that relationship”.

What’s next?

Muizzu’s trip underscores his efforts to repair ties with New Delhi, said analysts. After meeting with Modi, Muizzu said, “India has stood by the Maldives during our times of need and is a key partner in the Maldives’ socioeconomic and infrastructure development.”

In order to decongest the port in Male’s capital, New Delhi also pledged to build a commercial port on the Maldivian island of Thilafushi.

Additionally, Modi said India will offer financial support for the Maldives in the form of a $100m treasury bills rollover.

Modi said India plans to connect the two South Asian nations via the Indian instant payment system Unified Payments Interface after RuPay, an Indian multinational financial services and payment system, was introduced in the Maldives on Monday.

The highlight of Muizzu’s visit, however, was a statement made after his meeting with the Indian PM: “Modi accepted an invitation to a state visit to the Maldives next year.”

Source: Aljazeera