Why Arsenal look like a Mourinho team – but must change to win like one

Jamie Carragher, a former Liverpool and England defender, made the suggestion that Arsenal might be morphing into a “Jose Mourinho team” to compliment the club’s defensive resilience and set-piece prowess.

However, whether or not he intended for his September critique, there was a lingering doubt about the viability of a defence-first mantra in the modern era.

The Mourinho comparison feels both increasingly appropriate and unwelcome three months after being refuted for corners, wasted chances, streamlined attacking strategies, and a stodgy midfield.

The Gunners are four points clear of Premier League leaders Liverpool to maintain their position in the hunt following Wednesday’s victory over rivals Tottenham, partially due to another one of those set-piece goals.

This is at the very heart of those comparisons between Arteta’s Arsenal and Mourinho’s Chelsea, who were masters of the set-piece goal:

Either way, the headline for the current Arsenal side is unavoidable, the data stark: they need a ruthless striker to get over their set-piece dependence.

We have known this for a while, but in the past week the glare of the spotlight has intensified. In this January-related list, we’ve even created our own list of potential signers.

The same issues remain after a victory in the north London derby could start their 2025 campaign, which was contingent on a set-piece own goal and a Leandro Trossard strike that was unintentionally squirming through Spurs keeper Antonin Kinsky.

Arsenal have scored two goals from 63 shots – with an expected goals (xG) of 7.83 – against Manchester United, Newcastle and Tottenham.

The clearest example of this was against Newcastle, where Kai Havertz wasted valuable opportunities while Alexander Isak exhibited the ruthlessness Arsenal lacks in a game where all three games were defined by set-piece chances and big misses.

The Gunners missed all six of their ‘ big chances’. The Magpies scored both of theirs.

It was more of the same in the FA Cup loss on penalties to Manchester United, who had Diogo Dalot sent off in the 61st minute, after which Arteta said: “In 1, 000 games]like this] you lose one, and it was this one”.

Perhaps that is accurate, but when it persists, you have to wonder if Arsenal lacks clinical experience and composure in crucial situations, especially when an additional goal is required.

In five of their seven Premier League draws this season, they have scored more goals. German Havertz, under-scoring against his xG for the fourth time in five campaigns, is not the player to finish off a game.

Arsenal lacks Isak and is good at corners, therefore. That isn’t particularly noteworthy news.

Our perceptions of what has really happened this season have been distorted by the media’s focus on those misses against Newcastle and Manchester United.

With nine shots on goal and an xG of 0 88, Brighton’s previous draw at 1-1 more aligned with the campaign as a whole. The Gunners rank seventh in the Premier League for xG this season (36.5), plummeting from third in 2023-24 (77.5).

Interestingly, Arsenal’s shot count is also down (17.3 per game in 2023-24, 13.8 in 2024-25) yet their conversion rate is up (13.9% to 14.1%).

Maybe the problem is not about the number nine, then, but a lack of service provided from midfield.

Martin Odegaard missing eight Premier League matches is a big factor, of course, and arguably the only significant difference.

The Norwegian has 42 chances in all competitions since making his first start following his November injury against Chelsea, almost twice the total of any other Arsenal player (Declan Rice is next with 23).

In his last two games alone, Captain Odegaard has created 14 chances (10 against Manchester United and 4 against Tottenham), which is more than all of his team-mates combined (14).

Indeed, he had more touches on the field than any other player, making the Spurs game a prime example of how everything flows through him.

Regardless of whether Odegaard is physically able to play, Rice or Mikel Merino are both shown signs of lack of creativity in the left-sided midfield.

Since Merino’s arrival, the problem has grown more concerning, with more sideways passes and insufficient attacking dynamism, which in turn has limited the left-field access to Gabriel Martinelli or Trossard.

To illustrate that point, Arsenal’s progressive passes per 90 minutes have dropped at a huge rate, from 55.4 in 2023-24 to 45.4 in 2024-25, while their through-balls are down from 2.74 per 90 minutes to 1.81 per 90 minutes.

Due to Bukayo Saka’s hamstring injury, which has kept Arsenal in the middle and relied on for the right, the team has become too sluggish.

An excellent illustration of why it is a problem is the disappointing third-round FA Cup shootout defeat suffered by Manchester United, where Odegaard also had a penalty saved in normal time to put his team in front.

Ruben Amorim’s team were able to sit deep, double up on Arsenal’s right, and spread themselves across the width of the pitch without fear of being hit through the centre.

Amorim once said, “We had control without the ball, but we didn’t have it as much.”

Another couple of factors stick out, looping us back to those Mourinho comparisons.

When defensive resolve and set-piece goals are prioritised, the margin of error becomes razor thin, hence why Odegaard’s and Saka’s injuries derailed Arsenal’s form – and why less-than-perfect play at both ends of the pitch has cost them.

Last season, Arsenal committed 18 errors that led to an opponent shot. They have already equalled that figure (18), explaining why those 1-0 leads do not carry Mourinho-esque certainty anymore.

On the other end, it is worth noting that Arsenal, with 15.5, last year, was at the top of the scoring charts for goals scored before their post-shot xG. According to where the shot was fired onto the goalmouth, Arsenal has scored 15.5% more goals than would be “expected.”

This year, they haven’t been as fortunate, outscoring the same metric by just 1.7. Then, perhaps, there is a downward trend in the mean during the attack and a downward trend in standards later.

If that is the case, it only adds weight to the widely accepted theory that Arsenal could use a poach in the middle, someone who could convert half-chances into cushion goals that would either correct defensive errors or completely eliminate second-half errors.