Who is in the relegation fight – and what is needed for survival?

The Premier League’s relegation battle was in danger of looking like a foregone conclusion only a couple of weeks ago.

Earlier this season, West Ham, Wolves and Burnley looked destined to be heading to the Championship.

But only a couple of weeks after all hope looked seemingly lost for the Premier League’s worst-performing clubs, the battle for survival has taken several unexpected turns in the early weeks of 2026.

After rolling into the New Year with one win in 10 games, West Ham are a club buoyed since a morale-boosting win against Queens Park Rangers in the FA Cup third round on 11 January.

Since then, back-to-back wins for the Hammers against Tottenham Hotspur and Sunderland have bridged the gap between themselves and 17th-place Nottingham Forest to only six points – despite a late loss at Chelsea last time out.

Nineteenth-place Burnley added to their tally with respectable draws against Liverpool and Tottenham, but a 3-0 defeat by Sunderland on Monday left them 11 points from safety.

It goes without saying that despite an upturn in form for the Premier League’s bottom three sides, it would take a mammoth effort for any of them to beat the drop this season.

In the 33 completed seasons since the Premier League’s inception in 1992, only nine teams have overturned a six-point deficit after 23 games or more to survive.

Aston Villa (2019-20), Leicester City (2014-15) and Sunderland (2013-14) – all facing a seven-point deficit – are the most recent sides to have done so.

It means if any of the three clubs were to climb out of the relegation zone and preserve their top-flight status, they would etch their names into the record books.

After this weekend’s fixtures, Opta calculated the current chances of Wolves (0.02%) and Burnley (2.02%) achieving survival.

In West Ham’s case, despite a gut-wrenching 3-2 defeat by Chelsea on Saturday night, the numbers make for slightly better reading, with the Hammers’ chance of safety rated at 17.06%.

Realistically, there are seven Premier League clubs involved in this season’s relegation battle.

In addition to the current bottom three, Nottingham Forest, Leeds United, Crystal Palace and Tottenham are likely to be sweating over their Premier League status between now and the end of the season.

Tottenham are the highest positioned of the seven clubs – currently sitting 14th on 29 points after fighting back to earn a point against Manchester City on Sunday.

The point moves Thomas Frank’s side nine points ahead of West Ham with 14 games remaining.

But after collecting only three points from a possible 15 ahead of Sunday’s game against Pep Guardiola’s side – three less than the Hammers (six) – Spurs will know survival is not guaranteed yet.

The good news for West Ham, though, is that if Spurs are able to build on Sunday’s spirited draw and fire themselves up the table, there are still several other teams within catching distance.

Perhaps, no more so than Crystal Palace.

The Eagles – who sold captain Marc Guehi to Manchester City last month and will lose manager Oliver Glasner at the end of the season – are winless in their past 12 matches across all competitions.

In the Premier League, teams finishing on 36 points or more in each of the past nine seasons have avoided relegation.

In the 20-team era, starting from the 1995-96 season, the average number of points needed for survival, or the number of points the 18th-placed team finished plus one, is 35.53 – rounded up to 36 points.

In the 30 Premier League seasons that have had 38 games a season for each club, 36 points would have ensured survival 60% of the time.

The rate of survival increases to 80% for 38 points, 90% for 40 points and 100% for 43 or more points.

But West Ham have the ignominy of holding the record for the team relegated with the most points in the 20-team era. In the 2002-03 season, the Hammers picked up 42 points but were still relegated.

Sunderland with 40 points in 1996-97 and Bolton with 40 points the following year are the only other sides to have dropped down after touching the 40-point mark.

Tottenham finished 17th last term with 38 points but, because of the weaknesses of the promoted trio, they would still have beaten the drop with just 26.