Iran: President Trump has quickly resurrended his pressure campaign against Iran while reiterating his opposition to Tehran’s nuclear program.
Unsurprisingly, Iranian authorities have indicated that they don’t plan to capitulate and that they have left room for dialogue despite the country’s official policy of not pursuing a nuclear bomb.
Let’s examine the complex situation in place almost seven years after Trump first pursued the “maximum pressure,” a policy Tehran maintains has failed.
What did Trump’s White House remarks about Iran suggest?
Trump asserted on Tuesday that he was reluctant to approve a new pressure campaign against Iran for unspecified reasons, but he also promised to raise Iranian oil sanctions to “zero.”
He added that Iran’s only concern is that it doesn’t get nuclear weapons.
Trump responded to questions about alleged Iranian retaliation for ordering the murder of top general Qassem Soleimani in 2020, saying he has given instructions for Iran to be “obliterated” if he is expelled.
The US president put his new maximum pressure on Iran policy under the sign of a presidential memorandum on national security on Tuesday. The memorandum lacked many details on what “maximum pressure” would entail, but Trump hinted that the measures would be tough, saying he was “torn” and “unhappy” about signing it, and adding that he hoped “that it’s not going to have to be used in any great measure at all”.
Trump unilaterally abdicated Iran’s nuclear deal with the world powers in May 2018, in exchange for lifting some sanctions and suspending others.
Nuclear-peace agreement
The US president stated in a statement on his Truth Social account that he wants Iran to be a great, prosperous nation without nuclear weapons.
“Reports that the United States, working in conjunction with Israel, is going to blow Iran into smithereens, ARE GREATLY EXAGGERATED”, the post reads.
A “nuclear peace agreement” that would cause celebrations throughout the Middle East was also mentioned by him.
The , Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the landmark accord signed between Iran and the P5+1 (US, China, Russia, United Kingdom, France and Germany) in 2015 after years of negotiations, put tough limits on Iran’s nuclear programme in exchange for the lifting of United Nations sanctions.
It put a uranium enrichment cap of 3.67 percent on Iran, vastly restricted its stockpile of low-enriched uranium, limited deployment of centrifuges to first-generation IR-1 models, and converted the key Fordow enrichment plant into a research centre. It also introduced heavy water and plutonium restrictions, banned new enrichment facilities, and envisioned one of the most stringent nuclear inspection regimes worldwide.
Trump, cheered on by Israel and its Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, unilaterally withdrew from the deal without offering a replacement, and imposed the harshest-ever US sanctions on Iran.
Washington can apply what pressure more?
The sweeping sanctions imposed during Trump’s first term encompassed the entire Iranian economy, and did not let up even during the COVID-19 pandemic, when Iran was hit particularly hard.
The administration of former US President Joe Biden continued to impose the sanctions despite being consistently accused by its Republican rivals of being lax in enforcing them in indirect negotiations to revive the JCPOA, which has since remained comatose but not officially dead. By implementing a “snapback” mechanism in the JCPOA, a significant sunset clause of the agreement expires in October of this year, preventing the US and the European Union from being able to immediately rescind its sanctions.
The sanctions have caused years of uncertainty for the Iranian economy, which was beginning to stabilise after the nuclear agreement.
As a result of widespread inflation, tens of millions of Iranians continue to see their purchasing power decline. This week, the national currency hit new lows of about 840, 000 rials per US dollar in the open market. That rate was lower than 40, 000 rials per US dollar before the sanctions.
A lingering energy crisis that has resulted in sporadic shut downs of important services across Iran has significantly increased levels of air pollution, particularly in the capital.
However, the Trump administration seems determined to impose new designations and strict enforcement of Washington’s sanctions regime, cutting billions more from Iranian accounts.
Potential targets include the so-called “ghost fleet” of Iranian-managed ships, which frequently fly under other states’ flags and are registered in third countries to discretely transport crude oil.
It might even lead to US seizing more vessels, something Iran has called “piracy” and has retaliated against by also seizing them.
Since China has been the biggest buyer of Iranian oil for years, Washington is likely to consider putting even greater pressure on it. But as Trump signals he is ready for another trade war with Beijing, his plans to drive Iranian crude exports to “zero” look far-fetched.
What is Iran signalling?
Iran, one of the world’s largest oil producers, is a founding member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which represents some of the world’s largest oil producers. In a meeting with the head of the organization in Tehran on Wednesday, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian urged OPEC members to unite against potential US sanctions.
The centrist president also stated that his administration would try to strengthen ties with neighbors and other partners in order to withstand the sanctions, winning an election in July after Ebrahim Raisi’s death in a helicopter crash.
If Trump only wanted an Iran without a nuclear weapon, according to foreign minister Abbas Araghchi, that is “achievable and not challenging.”
Mohammad Eslami, Iran’s nuclear chief, said Trump’s insistence against a bomb was “stating the obvious”.
“We have declared that we are not pursuing and will not pursue nuclear weapons, and we remain engaged” with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), he said.
Government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani did not specifically comment about the possibility of direct talks with the US, or a Pezeshian-Trump meeting, only saying Tehran’s foreign policy is based on “three principles of dignity, wisdom and expediency”.
Iran is now enriching up to 60% of the uranium needed for a bomb, a short technical step after years of retaliation against Israeli-sponsored sabotage attacks on its nuclear facilities and Western-backed condemnations issued by the IAEA’s board.
The world’s nuclear watchdog and Western intelligence claim that it also has enough fissile material to make multiple bombs, but it hasn’t attempted to build a nuclear weapon.
Iranian diplomats held consultations with European countries last month to learn more about the nuclear issue and other issues, with both parties agreeing to continue speaking up soon.
In the aftermath of the fall of former President Bashar al-Assad in Syria and the blow it dealt to the Tehran-led “Axis of Resistance”, Iran’s armed forces have been holding large-scale military exercises, which are expected to continue during the coming weeks.
Although the drills primarily focused on air defense, offensive capabilities were also revealed, such as an underground missile base with a range of projectiles capable of reaching Israel, a new drone carrier, and speedboats capable of carrying anti-ship missiles.
Source: Aljazeera
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